Palmeiras v Flamengo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Palmeiras

20:00 UTC

Flamengo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 681h before kick-off

Palmeiras win

39.9%

model 39.4%

Draw

28.9%

model 27.9%

Flamengo win

31.2%

model 32.7%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.3%
2-1 8.7%
1-0 8.4%
1-2 7.8%
0-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.8%	Under 2.5	49.2%
BTTS yes	56.0%	BTTS no	44.0%
Palmeiras 1+	76.0%	Palmeiras 2+	41.7%
Flamengo 1+	72.2%	Flamengo 2+	36.6%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Flamengo (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 51%

63.6% fair odds 1.57

moderate signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Flamengo (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Palmeiras.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palmeiras have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for Flamengo and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Palmeiras and 1.28 for Flamengo.

Why Palmeiras

Nothing in the data singles out Palmeiras.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.43 to 1.28. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Flamengo can win

Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1779 Elo against 1732. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Palmeiras, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Flamengo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Palmeiras: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Flamengo: 56% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palmeiras's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Palmeiras are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392833	1.43–1.28	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392932	1.35–1.19	1-1 14%	47%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win	39.4%	36.4%	48.9%	0.74×	2.75
Flamengo to win	31.6%	30.4%	24.0%	1.27×	3.29
Draw	28.9%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & not both score	21.4%	21.8%	28.1%	0.78×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.9%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.56
Palmeiras & both teams score	18.0%	18.0%	21.0%	0.86×	5.56
Flamengo & not both score	16.8%	18.0%	13.8%	1.30×	5.57
Flamengo & both teams score	14.8%	13.3%	10.3%	1.29×	7.53
Draw & not both score	9.0%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & over 1.5	29.9%	26.1%	36.7%	0.71×	3.84
Palmeiras & under 3.5	28.5%	26.1%	36.8%	0.71×	3.84
Flamengo & over 1.5	23.4%	21.6%	17.1%	1.26×	4.63
Flamengo & under 3.5	23.5%	21.6%	18.6%	1.16×	4.63
Palmeiras & over 2.5	22.7%	21.6%	27.5%	0.79×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	22.8%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.8%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.9%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Flamengo & over 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	13.2%	1.37×	5.56
Palmeiras & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Flamengo & under 2.5	13.8%	12.8%	11.0%	1.17×	7.79
Palmeiras & over 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	12.2%	1.05×	7.79
Palmeiras & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Flamengo & under 1.5	8.2%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Flamengo & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	5.6%	1.43×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1UP)	55.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Flamengo (1UP)	48.7%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2UP)	39.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.66
Flamengo (2UP)	31.6%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.7%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Palmeiras to win 2nd half	32.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Flamengo to win 2nd half	29.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.0%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Flamengo over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Flamengo under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.0%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Flamengo over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (+2.5)	93.2%	92.1%	90.8%	1.01×	1.09
Flamengo (+1.5)	81.3%	82.5%	76.8%	1.07×	1.21
Palmeiras (+0.5)	68.4%	68.7%	76.0%	0.90×	1.46
Flamengo (+0.5)	60.6%	62.9%	51.1%	1.23×	1.59
Palmeiras (-0.5)	39.4%	37.1%	48.9%	0.76×	2.70
Flamengo (-0.5)	31.6%	31.3%	24.0%	1.31×	3.19
Palmeiras (-1.5)	18.7%	17.5%	23.2%	0.75×	5.72
Palmeiras (-2.5)	6.8%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to concede	74.2%	76.7%	79.7%	0.96×	1.30
Flamengo clean sheet	25.8%	23.3%	20.3%	1.14×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo clean sheet in 1st half	55.9%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Flamengo to concede in 1st half	44.1%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to concede in 2nd half	53.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Flamengo clean sheet in 2nd half	46.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 6.5 corners	77.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Flamengo over 2.5 corners	75.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Flamengo under 5.5 corners	67.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Flamengo over 3.5 corners	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Flamengo under 4.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Flamengo over 4.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Flamengo under 3.5 corners	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Flamengo over 5.5 corners	32.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Flamengo under 2.5 corners	24.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Flamengo over 6.5 corners	22.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Flamengo under 2.5 goals	88.2%	87.8%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Flamengo over 0.5 goals	69.5%	68.0%	65.4%	1.04×	1.47
Flamengo under 1.5 goals	66.7%	68.0%	71.9%	0.95×	1.47
Flamengo over 1.5 goals	33.3%	32.0%	28.1%	1.14×	3.12
Flamengo under 0.5 goals	30.5%	32.0%	34.6%	0.92×	3.13
Flamengo over 2.5 goals	11.8%	12.2%	9.2%	1.32×	8.21
Flamengo over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	2.1%	1.22×	39.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 1.5 in 1st half	91.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Flamengo under 0.5 in 1st half	62.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Flamengo over 0.5 in 1st half	37.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Flamengo over 1.5 in 1st half	8.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.62

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo scores equally in both	41.7%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Flamengo scores more in 2nd half	36.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Flamengo scores more in 1st half	21.6%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (away no bet)	57.7%	57.4%	64.2%	0.89×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.3%	42.6%	35.8%	1.19×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo even goals	54.6%	52.6%	54.9%	0.96×	1.90
Flamengo odd goals	45.4%	47.4%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.5%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.4%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.6%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Palmeiras to score 2+ in a row	31.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
Flamengo to score 2+ in a row	25.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.0%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Palmeiras to score 3+ in a row	10.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Flamengo to score 3+ in a row	7.1%	5.6%	—	—	17.99

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras corners (+3.5)	86.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Palmeiras corners (+2.5)	81.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Palmeiras corners (+1.5)	73.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Flamengo corners (+3.5)	72.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Flamengo corners (+2.5)	63.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Flamengo corners (+1.5)	54.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Palmeiras corners (-1.5)	45.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Palmeiras corners (-2.5)	36.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Palmeiras corners (-3.5)	27.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Flamengo corners (-1.5)	26.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Flamengo corners (-2.5)	18.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Flamengo corners (-3.5)	13.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	36.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	72.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	71.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	63.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	63.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	44.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	36.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	28.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	27.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.8%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.72
0-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.50
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-1	8.2%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
2-0	7.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.51
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.51
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.51
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	2.0%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.31
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2nd half DNB)	52.8%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Flamengo (2nd half DNB)	47.2%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT (DNB)	56.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Flamengo leading at HT (DNB)	43.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or Flamengo (12)	71.1%	72.1%	72.7%	0.99×	1.39
Palmeiras or draw (1X)	68.4%	69.6%	76.0%	0.92×	1.44
Flamengo or draw (X2)	60.6%	63.6%	51.1%	1.24×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw at HT	76.2%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Flamengo or draw at HT	69.2%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Palmeiras or Flamengo at HT	54.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1UP)	68.4%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Flamengo or draw (1UP)	60.6%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Flamengo or draw in 2nd half	67.1%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Palmeiras or Flamengo in 2nd half	62.3%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.8%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.2%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (DNB)	55.5%	58.0%	67.1%	0.86×	1.72
Flamengo (DNB)	44.5%	42.0%	32.9%	1.28×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score first	48.4%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Flamengo to score first	42.5%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	9.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.7%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.3%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.5%	38.4%	38.9%	0.99×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	38.9%	38.4%	38.3%	1.00×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.8%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.8%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.9%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.1%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.9%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.2%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	12.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.6%	5.0%	—	—	20.11

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.1%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.1%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	48.9%	47.3%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.1%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	26.7%	26.6%	25.7%	1.03×	3.76
4-6 goals	23.6%	22.9%	24.3%	0.94×	4.37
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	0.6%	2.90×	54.35

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Flamengo to score exactly 0	30.5%	33.8%	34.6%	0.98×	2.96
Flamengo to score exactly 2	21.5%	22.3%	19.0%	1.17×	4.49
Flamengo to score 3+	11.8%	12.9%	9.2%	1.40×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score exactly 1	35.0%	32.6%	34.3%	0.95×	3.07
Palmeiras to score exactly 0	25.8%	26.5%	20.3%	1.31×	3.77
Palmeiras to score exactly 2	23.7%	23.3%	27.1%	0.86×	4.29
Palmeiras to score 3+	15.5%	18.8%	18.6%	1.01×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Palmeiras leading at HT	30.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Flamengo leading at HT	23.8%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras -1: 2	60.6%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Palmeiras -1: X	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Palmeiras -1: 1	18.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:1)	60.6%	61.3%	51.1%	1.20×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.7%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13
Palmeiras (0:1)	18.7%	17.8%	23.2%	0.77×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:2)	81.3%	82.9%	76.8%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.9%	11.0%	14.1%	0.78×	9.10
Palmeiras (0:2)	6.8%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:3)	93.2%	92.7%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.00
Palmeiras (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	81.94
Palmeiras (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.05

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1:0)	68.4%	70.1%	76.0%	0.92×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.0%	17.1%	14.6%	1.17×	5.85
Flamengo (1:0)	13.6%	12.7%	9.5%	1.33×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2:0)	86.4%	88.5%	90.5%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.2%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.67
Flamengo (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.56

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Halves equal	27.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede	69.5%	66.7%	65.4%	1.02×	1.50
Palmeiras clean sheet	30.5%	33.3%	34.6%	0.96×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 1st half	62.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Palmeiras to concede in 1st half	37.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede in 2nd half	51.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Palmeiras clean sheet in 2nd half	49.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 2.5 corners	84.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners	73.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Palmeiras under 6.5 corners	63.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners	60.2%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras under 5.5 corners	52.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Palmeiras over 5.5 corners	47.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Palmeiras under 4.5 corners	39.8%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Palmeiras over 6.5 corners	36.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Palmeiras under 3.5 corners	26.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Palmeiras under 2.5 corners	15.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 3.5 goals	95.1%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals	84.5%	82.2%	81.4%	1.01×	1.22
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals	74.2%	74.3%	79.7%	0.93×	1.35
Palmeiras under 1.5 goals	60.8%	63.6%	54.4%	1.17×	1.57
Palmeiras over 1.5 goals	39.2%	36.4%	45.6%	0.80×	2.75
Palmeiras under 0.5 goals	25.8%	25.7%	20.3%	1.27×	3.89
Palmeiras over 2.5 goals	15.5%	17.8%	18.6%	0.96×	5.62
Palmeiras over 3.5 goals	4.9%	3.6%	5.7%	0.64×	27.45

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	9.7%	—	—	10.30

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras scores equally in both	38.8%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Palmeiras scores more in 2nd half	36.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Palmeiras scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (home no bet)	52.2%	51.4%	46.7%	1.10×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	47.8%	48.6%	53.3%	0.91×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras even goals	53.3%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Palmeiras odd goals	46.7%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 1-0	20.0%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	9.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
HT 2-0	5.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.04
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.08
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.15
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras at HT / Palmeiras at FT	23.0%	21.7%	—	—	4.62
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Flamengo at HT / Flamengo at FT	16.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Palmeiras at FT	14.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Flamengo at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Palmeiras at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Flamengo at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Palmeiras at HT / Flamengo at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
Flamengo at HT / Palmeiras at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score last	48.5%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Flamengo to score last	42.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	9.0%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Palmeiras to lead by 1 at any time	55.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Flamengo to lead by 1 at any time	48.7%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.1%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Palmeiras to lead by 2 at any time	24.4%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Flamengo to lead by 2 at any time	18.8%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Palmeiras to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.87
Flamengo to lead by 3 at any time	5.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.99

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras most corners	55.5%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Flamengo most corners	34.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.5%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.8%	72.4%	73.8%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.8%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.8%	68.8%	68.7%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.8%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.1%	48.5%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.2%	48.5%	47.1%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	44.3%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.2%	43.6%	43.0%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.3%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.6%	24.5%	24.3%	1.01×	4.08
4-5 goals	20.7%	24.5%	20.2%	1.21×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.9%	8.9%	11.3%	0.79×	11.25
7+ goals	1.5%	2.6%	0.6%	4.02×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras never behind	42.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Flamengo never behind	35.5%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.4%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.6%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	43.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.5%	87.6%	88.3%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	74.8%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	73.3%	72.5%	74.3%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.3%	52.5%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Over 2.5 goals	46.7%	47.5%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	26.7%	27.5%	25.7%	1.07×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.2%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.5%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.2%	97.2%	94.9%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.7%	86.7%	86.5%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.9%	67.5%	67.9%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.6%	61.9%	64.9%	0.95×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.4%	38.1%	35.1%	1.09×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.1%	32.5%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.3%	13.3%	13.5%	0.98×	7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.8%	2.8%	5.1%	0.55×	35.52
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.9%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.0%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.0%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo not to score in both halves	80.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Palmeiras not to score in both halves	76.3%	78.5%	—	—	1.28
Palmeiras to score in both halves	23.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Flamengo to score in both halves	19.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.7%	53.9%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Palmeiras scores	21.4%	22.2%	28.1%	0.79×	4.50
Only Flamengo scores	16.8%	16.0%	13.8%	1.16×	6.24
Neither team scores	9.0%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	24.9%	26.8%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.7%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	13.7%	12.1%	13.2%	0.92×	8.24
Exactly 0 goals	9.0%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.0%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.5%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	34.9%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	19.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
3+ goals in 1st half	9.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	23.0%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo not to win both halves	92.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Palmeiras not to win both halves	89.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Palmeiras to win both halves	10.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
Flamengo to win both halves	7.1%	5.9%	—	—	17.00

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win neither half	54.0%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Palmeiras to win either half	53.4%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Palmeiras to win neither half	46.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Flamengo to win either half	46.0%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo not to win to nil	83.2%	83.1%	86.2%	0.96×	1.20
Palmeiras not to win to nil	78.6%	78.1%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Palmeiras to win to nil	21.4%	21.9%	28.1%	0.78×	4.58
Flamengo to win to nil	16.8%	16.9%	13.8%	1.22×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	28.9%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.59
Palmeiras by 1	20.7%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Flamengo by 1	18.0%	17.0%	14.6%	1.17×	5.87
Palmeiras by 2	11.9%	11.8%	14.1%	0.83×	8.51
Flamengo by 2	9.2%	7.2%	6.2%	1.16×	13.90
Palmeiras by 3+	6.8%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.91
Flamengo by 3+	4.4%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.77