Paris FC v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 10
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.34 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+1.08 – -0.73
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris FC win
46.1%
Draw
25.7%
Brest win
28.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris FC have scored 19 from 20.2 expected and conceded 10 from 9.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDWLW last 10
scored 19
from 20.2 xG
conceded 10
from 9.9 xG
Brest are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDDWLLWDL last 10
scored 16
from 22.8 xG
conceded 15
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.33 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris FC 2.92 xGBrest 0.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris FC attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Paris FC |
Rudy Matondo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Moses Simon |
| 8' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Willem Geubbels |
| 11' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamari Traore |
| 12' |
Paris FC |
Rudy Matondo | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 12' |
Paris FC |
Rudy Matondo | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 18' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamari Traore |
| 19' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jonathan Ikone |
| 29' |
Paris FC |
Mamadou Mbow | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 35' |
 Brest |
Raphaël Le Guen | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 40' |
Brest |
Luc Zogbe | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Paris FC |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Coppola |
| 42' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 48' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 51' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Ikone |
| 53' |
Brest |
Lucas Tousart | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 56' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Ikone |
| 57' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brendan Chardonnet |
| 66' |
Paris FC |
Diego Coppola | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 66' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 66' |
Paris FC |
Rudy Matondo | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 69' |
Brest |
Raphaël Le Guen | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Joris Chotard |
| 80' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe |
| 81' |
Brest |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 85' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 85' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 88' |
Paris FC |
Luca Koleosho | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vincent Marchetti |
| 91' |
Paris FC |
Tuomas Ollila | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Le Guen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luc Zogbe DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| Romain Del Castillo MR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| Lucas Tousart MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kamory Doumbia Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Simon AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.84 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marshall Munetsi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hamari Traore DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| Rudy Matondo DMC | 79 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jonathan Ikone AMR | 79 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.56 | 0.90 |
| Willem Geubbels FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Ilan Kebbal AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Maxime Lopez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Ciro Immobile Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tuomas Ollila Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |