Paris FC v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 17
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
3 – 17
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-0.40 – +0.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris FC win
20.8%
Draw
20.4%
Lens win
58.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWLWLWDW last 10
scored 21
from 21.2 xG
conceded 9
from 12.0 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLWDDWLWWL last 10
scored 23
from 27.4 xG
conceded 16
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.92–1.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris FC 0.40 xGLens 4.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris FC attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 9' |
 Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ciro Immobile |
| 9' |
Paris FC |
Maxime Lopez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 12' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley Said |
| 12' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.79 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.78 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 15' |
Paris FC |
Otávio | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 22' |
Paris FC |
Ciro Immobile | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
| 23' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Odsonne Edouard |
| 30' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 32' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 45' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 47' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 50' |
Paris FC |
Otávio | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Paris FC |
Ciro Immobile | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 57' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 67' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 68' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Florian Thauvin |
| 75' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moses Simon |
| 78' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 79' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Allan Saint-Maximin |
| 94' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Allan Saint-Maximin |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.98 | 0.08 | 0.90 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.55 | 0.95 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.85 |
| Nidal Celik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 74 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.34 | 0.21 | 1.67 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 73 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.11 | 0.21 | 2.64 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin Sub | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Masuaku Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilan Kebbal AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Nhoa Sangui DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rudy Matondo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Timothée Kolodziejczak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Maxime Lopez MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Otávio DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ciro Immobile FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Marshall Munetsi MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luca Koleosho AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Moses Simon Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mamadou Mbow Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |