Paris FC v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 7 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.31
Goals − xG
-2.23 – -0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris FC win
43.9%
Draw
20.4%
Rennes win
35.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWLWDWW last 10
scored 21
from 22.2 xG
conceded 9
from 11.9 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–1.29 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris FC 2.23 xGRennes 1.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris FC attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22' |
 Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 31' |
Paris FC |
Mamadou Mbow | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 34' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 38' |
Paris FC |
Adama Camara | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adama Camara |
| 40' |
 Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 41' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 44' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 46' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxime Lopez |
| 46' |
Paris FC |
Samir Chergui | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 49' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brice Samba |
| 55' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 64' |
Paris FC |
Samir Chergui | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jean-Phillipe Krasso |
| 66' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 72' |
Paris FC |
Moses Simon | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adama Camara |
| 72' |
Paris FC |
Otávio | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Thibault De Smet | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ilan Kebbal |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Thibault De Smet |
| 80' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Valentin Rongier |
| 84' |
Paris FC |
Thibault De Smet | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.15 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tuomas Ollila |
| 93' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
Players
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Merlin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| Mousa Al Tamari DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Meïté FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Breel Embolo Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| Seko Fofana Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samir Chergui DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.56 |
| Ilan Kebbal FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1.75 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Otávio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Maxime Lopez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1.70 |
| Obed Nkambadio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Adama Camara MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.35 | 0.75 |
| Thibault De Smet DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 1.58 |
| Moses Simon FWL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Willem Geubbels Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mathieu Cafaro Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tuomas Ollila Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Nouha Dicko Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |