Paris Saint Germain v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 5
On target
6 – 0
Shots in box
14 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.64 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
76.4%
Draw
16.8%
Angers win
6.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.65–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 1.64 xGAngers 0.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabián |
| 8' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 21' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fabián |
| 29' |
 Angers |
Farid El Melali | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Esteban Lepaul |
| 29' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 33' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabián |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabián |
| 51' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 54' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 59' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 63' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 67' |
Angers |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Florent Hanin |
| 77' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 79' |
Angers |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 79' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 81' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 91' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Neves |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.99 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.67 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 68 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| Fabián MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.42 |
| William Pacho DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Bradley Barcola Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Nuno Mendes Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| João Neves Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Senny Mayulu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilian Raolisoa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Florent Hanin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Himad Abdelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yahia Fofana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Esteban Lepaul FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Yassin Belkhdim MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jean Eudes Aholou MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Farid El Melali FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jim Allevinah Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zinédine Ould Khaled Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zinedine Ferhat Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahima Niane Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |