Paris Saint Germain v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 7
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.59 – 0.41
Goals − xG
-0.72 – +0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
70.5%
Draw
17.2%
Auxerre win
12.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.46–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.42–0.79 | 3-0 10% | 79% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 3.72 xGAuxerre 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Joly |
| 10' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Marquinhos | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 12' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 17' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 27' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 29' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.34 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Gaetan Perrin |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 51' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 58' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabián |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | William Pacho |
| 64' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 66' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Marquinhos | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nuno Mendes |
| 69' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 79' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 80' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 80' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.13 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 87' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Senny Mayulu |
| 91' |
Auxerre |
Florian Aye | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lasso Coulibaly |
| 92' |
Auxerre |
Florian Aye | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ado Onaiwu |
| 93' |
Auxerre |
Lasso Coulibaly | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ado Onaiwu |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1.07 | 0.82 | 2.01 |
| Nuno Mendes DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 1.31 |
| Marquinhos DC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Fabián MC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| João Neves MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Senny Mayulu Sub | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.68 | 1.09 |
| Désiré Doué Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Beraldo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Joly DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| Gabriel Osho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gaetan Perrin MR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| Hamed Junior Traore ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Fredrik Oppegård Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ado Onaiwu Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Florian Aye Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |