Paris Saint Germain v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 3 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Paris Saint Germain

2–2

2.98 – 1.28 xG

Lorient

Shots

24 – 5

On target

6 – 3

Shots in box

15 – 4

xG per shot

0.13 – 0.26

Set-piece xG

0.99 – 0.18

Goals − xG

-1.09 – +0.72

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Paris Saint Germain win

74.6%

Draw

15.8%

Lorient win

9.6%

751610

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWWLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 19.8 xG conceded 10 from 12.3 xG

Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWLDWLDLW last 10 scored 13 from 15.0 xG conceded 12 from 16.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	751610	2.57–0.83	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	77149	2.64–0.79	2-0 11%	67%	51%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Paris Saint Germain 3.09 xGLorient 1.28 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paris Saint Germain attacking right Lorient attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
5'	Paris Saint Germain	Ibrahim Mbaye	0.69	Open Play	—	Goal	—
9'	Lorient	Montassar Talbi	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Arthur Avom
11'	Lorient	Pablo Pagis	0.34	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Panos Katseris
19'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Lee Kang-In
23'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Fabián
27'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.14	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Fabián
33'	Paris Saint Germain	Lucas Hernández	0.04	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Senny Mayulu
33'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Lee Kang-In
38'	Paris Saint Germain	Lee Kang-In	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Bradley Barcola
43'	Paris Saint Germain	Fabián	0.04	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Senny Mayulu
45'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Fabián
47'	Lorient	Montassar Talbi	0.13	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Pablo Pagis
50'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.04	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
52'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.04	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
53'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
56'	Paris Saint Germain	Ibrahim Mbaye	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
61'	Paris Saint Germain	Warren Zaïre-Emery	0.02	Set Piece	Right Foot	Goal	Désiré Doué
70'	Paris Saint Germain	Lee Kang-In	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Warren Zaïre-Emery
77'	Lorient	Aiyegun Tosin	0.39	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
80'	Paris Saint Germain	Pierre Mounguengue	0.56	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	João Neves
80'	Paris Saint Germain	Pierre Mounguengue	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
82'	Lorient	Aiyegun Tosin	0.36	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Darline Yongwa
84'	Paris Saint Germain	Lucas Hernández	0.02	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Lee Kang-In
84'	Paris Saint Germain	Lucas Hernández	0.31	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Lee Kang-In
85'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	João Neves
87'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.09	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
87'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.34	Set Piece	Left Foot	Shot On Post	—
89'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lucas Hernández
89'	Paris Saint Germain	Dro Fernández	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—

Players