Paris Saint Germain v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 5
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
17 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
1.58 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.20 – +0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
63.9%
Draw
20.7%
Lyon win
15.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.10–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.50–0.87 | 2-0 11% | 65% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 3.20 xGLyon 1.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Lyon |
Endrick | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Afonso Moreira |
| 11' |
Lyon |
Abner | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
| 16' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 17' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Endrick |
| 25' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 26' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 27' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 27' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 32' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 45' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.40 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 51' |
Lyon |
Afonso Moreira | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 60' |
Lyon |
Endrick | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Khalis Merah |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 63' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 74' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Achraf Hakimi |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 77' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabián |
| 82' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Beraldo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 93' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabián |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beraldo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.88 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.28 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.49 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.55 | 1.03 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.58 |
| Vitinha MC | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ousmane Dembélé Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Lee Kang-In Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| Fabián Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afonso Moreira FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.83 |
| Abner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Tyler Morton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Khalis Merah AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| Moussa Niakhate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Endrick FW | 85 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.47 | 1.13 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Kluivert DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Hans Hateboer Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Karabec Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noham Kamara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |