Paris Saint Germain v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 10
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
20 – 5
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.42 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.36 – -0.91
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
61.0%
Draw
18.5%
Marseille win
20.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDDLWWWW last 10
scored 18
from 21.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.9 xG
Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 19.4 xG
conceded 14
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.03–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.31–1.04 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 4.64 xGMarseille 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 7' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 11' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nuno Mendes |
| 14' |
 Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emerson |
| 24' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Emerson |
| 24' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 28' |
Marseille |
Quinten Timber | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 36' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Senny Mayulu |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Facundo Medina | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 54' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 56' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 58' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 59' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emerson |
| 60' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 63' |
Marseille |
Facundo Medina | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 63' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 65' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Himad Abdelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lee Kang-In | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Senny Mayulu |
| 77' |
Marseille |
Himad Abdelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 84' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 88' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.60 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lee Kang-In |
| 88' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 90' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.42 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vitinha |
| 91' |
Marseille |
Himad Abdelli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emerson |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuno Mendes DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.51 | 1.58 | 1.96 |
| João Neves MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1.17 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 78 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.72 | 0.17 | 1.49 |
| Senny Mayulu MC | 78 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.97 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.38 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.21 | 1.97 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 1.85 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| Lee Kang-In Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.98 | 0.08 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Hernández Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dro Fernández Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.75 |
| Quinten Timber MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jeffrey de Lange GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Mason Greenwood ML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.78 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Nwaneri MR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Paixão Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Himad Abdelli Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |