Paris Saint Germain v Metz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 3
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
11 – 0
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
0.67 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.59 – -0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
86.0%
Draw
8.5%
Metz win
5.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 3.27–0.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.38–0.59 | 3-0 12% | 76% | 43% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 2.41 xGMetz 0.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Metz attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 6' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 8' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 20' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Dro Fernández | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dro Fernández |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.52 | From Corner | — | Goal | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 47' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 49' |
 Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Gbamin |
| 59' |
Metz |
Boubacar Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 74' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alpha Touré |
| 76' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lucas Hernández |
| 78' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Warren Zaïre-Emery | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Neves |
| 79' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Lucas Hernández | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 81' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 89' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Ramos |
| 91' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Mbaye |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 1.25 |
| Gonçalo Ramos FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1.25 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 1.25 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Beraldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Bradley Barcola FWL | 68 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| Dro Fernández MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Lee Kang-In MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.99 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| Vitinha Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| João Neves Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boubacar Traore MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Terry Yegbe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alpha Touré MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Fode Toure DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lucas Michal MR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jessy Deminguet Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bouna Sarr Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Kvilitaia Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Mbala Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |