Paris Saint Germain v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 4 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Paris Saint Germain

1–2

2.52 – 0.60 xG

Monaco

Shots

23 – 4

On target

10 – 2

Shots in box

8 – 2

xG per shot

0.11 – 0.15

Set-piece xG

1.50 – 0.00

Goals − xG

-1.54 – +1.40

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Paris Saint Germain win

59.3%

Draw

20.9%

Monaco win

19.8%

592120

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDDLWWWW last 10 scored 18 from 21.4 xG conceded 11 from 15.9 xG

Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLLWWWDWDL last 10 scored 16 from 11.3 xG conceded 13 from 13.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	592120	2.05–1.10	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	652114	2.38–1.06	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	602020	2.27–1.24	2-1 10%	68%	64%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	621919	2.39–1.27	2-1 9%	71%	65%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	61.6%	63.4%	46.0%	1.38×	1.58
Draw	20.1%	25.0%	22.9%	1.09×	4.00
Monaco to win	18.3%	16.8%	31.3%	0.54×	5.97

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	74.8%	74.5%	58.3%	1.28×	1.34
Monaco (1UP)	37.8%	32.6%	49.1%	0.66×	3.07

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	61.6%	65.9%	47.6%	1.38×	1.52
Monaco (2UP)	18.3%	16.6%	33.6%	0.49×	6.02

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	81.7%	85.1%	68.7%	1.24×	1.17
Monaco (+2.5)	80.0%	81.5%	89.9%	0.91×	1.23
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	61.6%	63.5%	46.0%	1.38×	1.57
Monaco (+1.5)	61.4%	63.5%	74.9%	0.85×	1.57
Paris Saint Germain (-1.5)	38.6%	36.5%	25.1%	1.45×	2.74
Monaco (+0.5)	38.4%	36.5%	54.0%	0.68×	2.74
Paris Saint Germain (-2.5)	20.0%	18.5%	10.1%	1.83×	5.39
Monaco (-0.5)	18.3%	14.9%	31.3%	0.47×	6.73

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (away no bet)	75.4%	72.7%	66.7%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (away no bet)	24.6%	27.3%	33.3%	0.82×	3.67

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.4%	82.3%	83.1%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.6%	17.7%	16.9%	1.05×	5.65

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.6%	66.6%	65.2%	1.02×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.4%	33.4%	34.8%	0.96×	2.99

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.6%	61.5%	60.2%	1.02×	1.63
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	54.9%	50.7%	38.4%	1.32×	1.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.1%	27.7%	22.7%	1.22×	3.61
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	26.1%	24.7%	14.2%	1.74×	4.05
Monaco to score 2+ in a row	19.7%	16.1%	27.8%	0.58×	6.20
Monaco to score 3+ in a row	4.4%	2.5%	9.2%	0.28×	39.48

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.44
1-1	9.2%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.44
2-0	9.1%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.45
1-0	8.5%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.45
3-1	7.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.21×	13.45
Any other score	7.1%	7.4%	5.1%	1.47×	13.45
3-0	6.5%	7.4%	3.8%	1.96×	13.46
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.9%	1.52×	13.46
1-2	5.0%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.55
0-0	3.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.58
0-1	4.3%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.57
3-2	3.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.59
4-0	3.5%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.60
4-1	3.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.59
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.63
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.65
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.64
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.66
4-2	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.64
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.68
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.70
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.69
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.69
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.69
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.68
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.70

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	63.6%	66.3%	53.5%	1.24×	1.51
Monaco leading at HT (DNB)	36.4%	33.7%	46.5%	0.72×	2.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X)	81.7%	83.2%	68.7%	1.21×	1.20
Paris Saint Germain or Monaco (12)	79.9%	75.0%	77.1%	0.97×	1.33
Monaco or draw (X2)	38.4%	36.6%	54.0%	0.68×	2.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	81.7%	88.9%	72.8%	1.22×	1.13
Monaco or draw (1UP)	38.4%	43.9%	61.9%	0.71×	2.28

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	77.1%	81.1%	59.5%	1.36×	1.23
Monaco (DNB)	22.9%	18.9%	40.5%	0.47×	5.28

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	63.8%	62.4%	49.4%	1.26×	1.60
Monaco to score first	32.2%	25.8%	44.1%	0.59×	3.88
No goal scored	3.9%	5.1%	6.6%	0.77×	19.59

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.5%	56.0%	53.6%	1.05×	1.79
Not both teams to score	41.5%	44.0%	46.4%	0.95×	2.27

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.3%	82.3%	84.8%	0.97×	1.22
Both teams to score 2+	18.7%	17.7%	15.2%	1.17×	5.64

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.8%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.2%	32.0%	30.0%	1.06×	3.13

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	82.8%	81.5%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	17.2%	18.5%	0.93×	5.81

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.8%	43.6%	43.3%	1.01×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.9%	36.8%	30.8%	1.20×	2.72
0-1 goals	16.7%	21.5%	22.7%	0.94×	4.66
7+ goals	4.6%	1.9%	3.5%	0.55×	52.47

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.7%	33.2%	1.08×	2.80
Monaco to score exactly 0	33.8%	34.0%	30.5%	1.11×	2.95
Monaco to score exactly 2	19.9%	19.0%	21.3%	0.89×	5.26
Monaco to score 3+	9.7%	6.1%	15.3%	0.39×	16.53

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	36.3%	34.2%	23.1%	1.48×	2.92
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.9%	23.1%	1.17×	3.71
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	25.1%	26.9%	31.6%	0.85×	3.72
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	11.7%	12.2%	22.6%	0.54×	8.18

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.0%	43.5%	38.7%	1.12×	2.30
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	37.5%	37.9%	32.9%	1.15×	2.64
Monaco leading at HT	21.5%	19.9%	28.6%	0.70×	5.03

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	38.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	38.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	23.0%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	38.6%	39.1%	25.1%	1.56×	2.56
Monaco (0:1)	38.4%	39.0%	54.0%	0.72×	2.56
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	23.4%	21.0%	1.11×	4.27

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:2)	61.4%	59.8%	74.9%	0.80×	1.67
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	20.0%	18.0%	10.1%	1.78×	5.56
Draw (0:2)	18.6%	17.5%	15.2%	1.15×	5.71

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:3)	80.0%	81.9%	89.9%	0.91×	1.22
Draw (0:3)	11.3%	10.9%	6.2%	1.77×	9.15
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	8.7%	5.5%	4.1%	1.34×	18.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco (0:4)	91.3%	94.7%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.5%	5.0%	2.7%	1.87×	19.90
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	3.2%	1.1%	1.6%	0.69×	91.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	81.7%	85.4%	68.7%	1.24×	1.17
Draw (1:0)	11.6%	10.2%	14.5%	0.70×	9.78
Monaco (1:0)	6.6%	6.5%	16.9%	0.38×	15.38

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	93.4%	94.2%	83.1%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.7%	2.3%	10.0%	0.23×	43.75
Monaco (2:0)	1.9%	2.2%	7.1%	0.31×	44.86

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.7%	58.1%	47.2%	1.23×	1.72
1st half highest scoring	22.8%	24.9%	26.5%	0.94×	4.02
Halves equal	21.5%	24.8%	26.4%	0.94×	4.03

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	52.4%	50.9%	42.3%	1.20×	1.96
Monaco (home no bet)	47.6%	49.1%	57.7%	0.85×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.5%	28.5%	28.8%	0.99×	3.50
HT 1-0	21.8%	23.8%	21.2%	1.13×	4.20
HT 0-1	14.3%	10.9%	16.9%	0.64×	9.18
HT 1-1	10.5%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.21
HT 2-0	8.0%	6.9%	6.6%	1.05×	14.42
Any other HT score	5.2%	6.9%	4.7%	1.46×	14.47
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.2%	3.2%	0.69×	45.80
HT 0-2	3.4%	2.2%	5.5%	0.39×	45.83
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.2%	4.1%	0.53×	45.91
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.2%	0.8%	2.75×	46.04

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	33.0%	31.8%	27.6%	1.15×	3.14
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	23.3%	22.9%	15.0%	1.52×	4.38
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.2%	12.8%	13.0%	0.99×	7.81
Monaco at HT / Monaco at FT	10.7%	12.8%	19.0%	0.67×	7.82
Draw at HT / Monaco at FT	6.5%	6.0%	11.1%	0.55×	16.56
Monaco at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	6.3%	0.95×	16.59
Monaco at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	5.3%	6.0%	3.6%	1.66×	16.60
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.3%	3.9%	0.84×	30.08
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Monaco at FT	1.1%	3.3%	1.6%	2.10×	30.18

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	63.8%	60.3%	53.1%	1.14×	1.66
Monaco to score last	32.2%	31.3%	40.4%	0.77×	3.19
No goal scored	3.9%	5.1%	6.6%	0.77×	19.59

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	94.8%	93.4%	1.02×	1.06
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	74.8%	73.1%	58.3%	1.25×	1.37
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.5%	54.1%	51.3%	1.05×	1.85
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	46.1%	43.4%	29.7%	1.46×	2.30
Monaco to lead by 1 at any time	37.8%	33.5%	49.1%	0.68×	2.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.5%	24.4%	20.2%	1.21×	4.09
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	23.5%	19.3%	12.0%	1.61×	5.18
Monaco to lead by 2 at any time	11.8%	10.1%	21.8%	0.47×	9.86
Monaco to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.5%	8.4%	0.18×	65.54

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.2%	86.6%	85.0%	1.02×	1.16
2-6 goals	78.7%	77.2%	73.9%	1.04×	1.30
1-4 goals	73.5%	72.0%	76.5%	0.94×	1.39
2-5 goals	72.4%	71.9%	68.9%	1.04×	1.39
2-4 goals	60.8%	62.5%	60.3%	1.04×	1.60
3-6 goals	58.1%	56.6%	50.7%	1.12×	1.77
1-3 goals	55.6%	56.6%	59.4%	0.95×	1.77
3-5 goals	51.8%	50.8%	45.7%	1.11×	1.97
2-3 goals	42.8%	42.8%	43.3%	0.99×	2.34
3-4 goals	40.2%	42.7%	37.1%	1.15×	2.34
4-6 goals	35.9%	38.1%	30.8%	1.24×	2.63
1-2 goals	33.3%	33.1%	39.5%	0.84×	3.02
4-5 goals	29.6%	26.2%	25.8%	1.02×	3.82
5-6 goals	17.9%	15.0%	13.7%	1.09×	6.67
7+ goals	4.6%	2.0%	3.5%	0.57×	50.44

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	58.3%	63.8%	50.9%	1.25×	1.57
Monaco never behind	21.3%	26.4%	41.7%	0.63×	3.79

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.1%	50.7%	52.9%	0.96×	1.97
Odd number of goals	49.9%	49.3%	47.1%	1.05×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.4%	51.9%	52.0%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.1%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	52.8%	49.3%	1.07×	1.89
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	47.2%	50.7%	0.93×	2.12

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.9%	93.4%	1.03×	1.04
Under 5.5 goals	89.1%	89.1%	91.5%	0.97×	1.12
Over 1.5 goals	83.3%	81.4%	77.3%	1.05×	1.23
Under 4.5 goals	77.5%	79.3%	82.9%	0.96×	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	62.7%	61.4%	54.0%	1.14×	1.63
Under 3.5 goals	59.5%	59.6%	65.9%	0.90×	1.68
Over 3.5 goals	40.5%	40.4%	34.1%	1.18×	2.47
Under 2.5 goals	37.3%	38.6%	46.0%	0.84×	2.59
Over 4.5 goals	22.5%	20.7%	17.1%	1.21×	4.84
Under 1.5 goals	16.7%	18.6%	22.7%	0.82×	5.39
Over 5.5 goals	10.9%	10.9%	8.5%	1.28×	9.15
Under 0.5 goals	3.9%	4.1%	6.6%	0.61×	24.58

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.1%	98.2%	96.3%	1.02×	1.02
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.7%	90.2%	90.7%	1.00×	1.11
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.0%	77.2%	70.4%	1.10×	1.30
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.5%	75.9%	79.4%	0.96×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.1%	51.6%	42.6%	1.21×	1.94
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.9%	48.4%	57.4%	0.84×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.5%	24.1%	20.6%	1.17×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.0%	22.8%	29.6%	0.77×	4.38
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.3%	9.8%	9.3%	1.05×	10.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.9%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.11

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco not to score in both halves	82.7%	84.6%	77.6%	1.09×	1.18
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	60.5%	63.4%	68.1%	0.93×	1.58
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	39.5%	36.6%	31.9%	1.15×	2.73
Monaco to score in both halves	17.3%	15.4%	22.4%	0.69×	6.49

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.5%	56.3%	53.6%	1.05×	1.78
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	29.8%	28.1%	24.0%	1.17×	3.57
Only Monaco scores	7.7%	7.5%	16.1%	0.47×	13.27
Neither team scores	3.9%	4.8%	6.6%	0.73×	20.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.5%	20.1%	1.12×	4.44
Exactly 2 goals	20.6%	22.5%	23.4%	0.96×	4.45
Exactly 4 goals	18.0%	18.3%	17.2%	1.06×	5.46
Exactly 1 goals	12.7%	11.7%	16.3%	0.72×	8.58
Exactly 5 goals	11.6%	11.6%	8.7%	1.34×	8.59
6 or more goals	10.9%	11.6%	8.5%	1.36×	8.60
Exactly 0 goals	3.9%	4.0%	6.6%	0.60×	25.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.8%	53.3%	48.7%	1.10×	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	26.9%	29.8%	33.0%	0.90×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	13.3%	15.5%	18.5%	0.84×	6.45

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monaco not to win both halves	96.6%	97.3%	90.7%	1.07×	1.03
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	78.7%	75.8%	83.3%	0.91×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	21.3%	24.2%	16.7%	1.45×	4.13
Monaco to win both halves	3.4%	2.7%	9.3%	0.29×	36.84

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain by 1	23.0%	24.9%	21.0%	1.18×	4.02
Draw	20.1%	24.8%	22.9%	1.08×	4.03
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	20.0%	24.8%	10.1%	2.46×	4.03
Paris Saint Germain by 2	18.6%	17.2%	15.2%	1.13×	5.82
Monaco by 1	11.6%	11.0%	14.5%	0.75×	9.12
Monaco by 2	4.7%	2.2%	10.0%	0.22×	45.22
Monaco by 3+	1.9%	2.2%	7.1%	0.31×	46.06

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Paris Saint Germain 2.54 xGMonaco 0.60 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paris Saint Germain attacking right Monaco attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
7'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Maghnes Akliouche
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Achraf Hakimi	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Désiré Doué
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.15	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
11'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.14	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	—
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	João Neves
22'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
30'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
30'	Paris Saint Germain	Marquinhos	0.87	From Corner	—	Goal	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
35'	Paris Saint Germain	Fabián	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Maghnes Akliouche
35'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Désiré Doué
38'	Paris Saint Germain	Achraf Hakimi	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
45'	Monaco	Paris Brunner	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Lamine Camara
54'	Paris Saint Germain	Maghnes Akliouche	0.50	Set Piece	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Vitinha
54'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Désiré Doué
57'	Monaco	Flávio Nazinho	0.45	Open Play	—	Goal	Jordan Teze
61'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
63'	Paris Saint Germain	Achraf Hakimi	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Vitinha
63'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fabián
64'	Monaco	Stanis Idumbo Muzambo	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Paris Brunner
71'	Monaco	Stanis Idumbo Muzambo	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Aleksandr Golovin
74'	Paris Saint Germain	Mika Godts	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Lucas Hernández
86'	Paris Saint Germain	Achraf Hakimi	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Marquinhos
89'	Paris Saint Germain	Mika Godts	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
91'	Paris Saint Germain	Mika Godts	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Vitinha
93'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Mika Godts
94'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Achraf Hakimi
94'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Mika Godts

Players