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Paris Saint Germain v Montpellier — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 23 August 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

Shots
27 – 8
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
17 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.98 – 0.54
Goals − xG
+1.06 – -0.77
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.42.84.15.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Bradley Barcola 3' — goalMarco Asensio 23' — goalBradley Barcola 52' — goalAchraf Hakimi 57' — goalWarren Zaïre-Emery 59' — goalLee Kang-In 81' — goal
Paris Saint Germain 4.94 xGMontpellier 0.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Bradley Barcola 3' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)João Neves 6' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, From Corner)Achraf Hakimi 9' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Téji Savanier 16' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Marco Asensio 23' — Goal (0.43 xG, Open Play)Ousmane Dembélé 24' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 25' — Missed Shot (0.22 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 27' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Arnaud Nordin 28' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, From Corner)Marquinhos 34' — Missed Shot (0.41 xG, Set Piece)Ousmane Dembélé 41' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Warren Zaïre-Emery 43' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Wahbi Khazri 45' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marco Asensio 47' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Marco Asensio 48' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Bradley Barcola 52' — Goal (0.67 xG, Open Play)Achraf Hakimi 57' — Goal (0.21 xG, Open Play)Warren Zaïre-Emery 59' — Goal (0.44 xG, Open Play)João Neves 62' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Lee Kang-In 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Désiré Doué 65' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Désiré Doué 66' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 68' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Akor Adams 71' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mousa Al Tamari 72' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kiki Kouyate 73' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Désiré Doué 73' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Randal Kolo Muani 76' — Missed Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Achraf Hakimi 79' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Lee Kang-In 81' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Désiré Doué 85' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Randal Kolo Muani 87' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Désiré Doué 90' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Mbaye 90' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Joris Chotard 95' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)
Paris Saint Germain attacking right Montpellier attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Goal João Neves
6' Paris Saint Germain João Neves 0.33 From Corner Missed Shot Ousmane Dembélé
9' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
16' Montpellier Téji Savanier 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arnaud Nordin
23' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.43 Open Play Right Foot Goal João Neves
24' Paris Saint Germain Ousmane Dembélé 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot João Neves
25' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.22 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Warren Zaïre-Emery
27' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marco Asensio
28' Montpellier Arnaud Nordin 0.39 From Corner Saved Shot Téji Savanier
34' Paris Saint Germain Marquinhos 0.41 Set Piece Missed Shot Achraf Hakimi
41' Paris Saint Germain Ousmane Dembélé 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marco Asensio
43' Paris Saint Germain Warren Zaïre-Emery 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot João Neves
45' Montpellier Wahbi Khazri 0.03 Open Play Blocked Shot Téji Savanier
47' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
48' Paris Saint Germain Marco Asensio 0.08 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
52' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.67 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ousmane Dembélé
57' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.21 Open Play Right Foot Goal Nuno Mendes
59' Paris Saint Germain Warren Zaïre-Emery 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Goal Ousmane Dembélé
62' Paris Saint Germain João Neves 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Achraf Hakimi
63' Paris Saint Germain Lee Kang-In 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Nuno Mendes
65' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Achraf Hakimi
66' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lee Kang-In
68' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
71' Montpellier Akor Adams 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Modibo Sagnan
72' Montpellier Mousa Al Tamari 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Enzo Tchato Mbiayi
73' Montpellier Kiki Kouyate 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Téji Savanier
73' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fabián
76' Paris Saint Germain Randal Kolo Muani 0.53 Open Play Missed Shot Désiré Doué
79' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
81' Paris Saint Germain Lee Kang-In 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Goal Achraf Hakimi
85' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Fabián
87' Paris Saint Germain Randal Kolo Muani 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lee Kang-In
90' Paris Saint Germain Désiré Doué 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
90' Paris Saint Germain Ibrahim Mbaye 0.26 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Désiré Doué
95' Montpellier Joris Chotard 0.08 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Paris Saint Germain

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marquinhos DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.41 0.00 1.82
Achraf Hakimi DR 90 1 1 3 4 0.28 0.57 1.55
Vitinha MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.73
Nuno Mendes DL 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.24 1.76
Gianluigi Donnarumma GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.56
William Pacho DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.83
Warren Zaïre-Emery MC 81 1 0 2 1 0.46 0.22 2.36
João Neves MC 71 0 2 2 4 0.41 0.65 1.17
Bradley Barcola FWL 65 2 0 4 0 1.04 0.00 1.56
Marco Asensio FW 65 1 0 3 2 0.56 0.19 1.94
Ousmane Dembélé FWR 65 0 2 2 3 0.24 1.44 1.61
Randal Kolo Muani Sub 25 0 0 2 0 0.84 0.00 0.96
Désiré Doué Sub 25 0 0 5 2 0.37 0.79 1.51
Lee Kang-In Sub 25 1 0 2 2 0.07 0.39 1.22
Fabián Sub 19 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.22 1.12
Ibrahim Mbaye Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.26 0.00 0.26

Montpellier

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Joris Chotard MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.00
Kiki Kouyate DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.00
Becir Omeragic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Benjamin Lecomte GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.08
Falaye Sacko DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Modibo Sagnan DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Téji Savanier MC 86 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.50 0.05
Arnaud Nordin FW 71 0 0 1 1 0.39 0.02 0.02
Wahbi Khazri FW 71 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.05
Jordan Ferri MC 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Akor Adams Sub 19 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Mousa Al Tamari Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.12
Yanis Issoufou Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gabriel Barès Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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