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Paris Saint Germain v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 November 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–1
3.86 – 0.74 xG
Shots
24 – 5
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-2.96 – +0.25
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.12.23.34.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Achraf Hakimi 1' — goalMatthis Abline 37' — goal
Paris Saint Germain 3.96 xGNantes 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Achraf Hakimi 1' — Goal (0.76 xG, Open Play)Gonçalo Ramos 1' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Gonçalo Ramos 4' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gonçalo Ramos 7' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)João Neves 9' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Vitinha 9' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Lee Kang-In 21' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Achraf Hakimi 22' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Lee Kang-In 30' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 33' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 37' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Bradley Barcola 40' — Missed Shot (0.67 xG, Open Play)Douglas Augusto 45' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)João Neves 46' — Missed Shot (0.44 xG, Open Play)Nuno Mendes 46' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nuno Mendes 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Johann Lepenant 49' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 49' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Vitinha 51' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)João Neves 55' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 62' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Bradley Barcola 62' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Achraf Hakimi 65' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fabián 66' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lee Kang-In 69' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Warren Zaïre-Emery 74' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Ousmane Dembélé 80' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Vitinha 91' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Fabián 95' — Blocked Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)
Paris Saint Germain attacking right Nantes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.76 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gonçalo Ramos
1' Paris Saint Germain Gonçalo Ramos 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nuno Mendes
4' Paris Saint Germain Gonçalo Ramos 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Lee Kang-In
7' Paris Saint Germain Gonçalo Ramos 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot Fabián
9' Paris Saint Germain João Neves 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Vitinha
9' Paris Saint Germain Vitinha 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lee Kang-In
21' Paris Saint Germain Lee Kang-In 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Fabián
22' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot João Neves
30' Paris Saint Germain Lee Kang-In 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot João Neves
33' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Achraf Hakimi
37' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.47 Open Play Left Foot Goal Douglas Augusto
40' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.67 Open Play Missed Shot Vitinha
45' Nantes Douglas Augusto 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Moses Simon
46' Paris Saint Germain João Neves 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
46' Paris Saint Germain Nuno Mendes 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
47' Paris Saint Germain Nuno Mendes 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot João Neves
49' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
49' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pedro Chirivella
51' Paris Saint Germain Vitinha 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
55' Paris Saint Germain João Neves 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gonçalo Ramos
62' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Moses Simon
62' Paris Saint Germain Bradley Barcola 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lee Kang-In
65' Paris Saint Germain Achraf Hakimi 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vitinha
66' Paris Saint Germain Fabián 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vitinha
69' Paris Saint Germain Lee Kang-In 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vitinha
74' Paris Saint Germain Warren Zaïre-Emery 0.45 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Gonçalo Ramos
80' Paris Saint Germain Ousmane Dembélé 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Vitinha
91' Paris Saint Germain Vitinha 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Achraf Hakimi
95' Paris Saint Germain Fabián 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gonçalo Ramos

Players

Paris Saint Germain

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Achraf Hakimi DR 90 1 0 3 2 1.07 0.13 2.62
Fabián MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.36 0.13 2.11
Gonçalo Ramos FW 90 0 1 3 4 0.20 1.65 1.85
Vitinha MC 90 0 0 3 6 0.17 0.83 2.14
Nuno Mendes DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.11 1.90
Gianluigi Donnarumma GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
William Pacho DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.21
Marquinhos DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.67
Bradley Barcola FWL 75 0 0 3 0 0.89 0.00 1.04
Lee Kang-In FWR 75 0 0 3 3 0.13 0.28 1.30
João Neves MC 63 0 0 3 3 0.60 0.34 1.73
Warren Zaïre-Emery Sub 27 0 0 1 0 0.45 0.00 0.53
Ousmane Dembélé Sub 15 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.50
Désiré Doué Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Johann Lepenant MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Douglas Augusto MC 90 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.47 0.47
Pedro Chirivella MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Patrik Carlgren GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Pallois DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
Nicolas Cozza DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nathan Zeze DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matthis Abline FW 84 1 0 3 0 0.59 0.00 0.57
Moses Simon FW 84 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.47
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fabien Centonze DR 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelvin Adou Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Kevin Duverne Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ignatius Ganago Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bahereba Guirassy Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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