Paris Saint Germain v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 22 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.94 – 0.43
Goals − xG
+0.74 – -0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
80.6%
Draw
13.2%
Nantes win
6.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.74–0.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.03–0.61 | 3-0 12% | 71% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 2.26 xGNantes 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Marquinhos | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 12' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 16' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 18' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beraldo |
| 19' |
 Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 35' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Achraf Hakimi |
| 38' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathieu Acapandié |
| 39' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathieu Acapandié |
| 40' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dro Fernández |
| 41' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.70 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 54' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dro Fernández |
| 59' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beraldo |
| 60' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 61' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 62' |
Nantes |
Nicolas Cozza | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 66' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Beraldo |
| 68' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ibrahim Mbaye |
| 76' |
Nantes |
Bahmed Deuff | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 82' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 86' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ibrahim Mbaye |
| 90' |
Nantes |
Frederic Guilbert | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ignatius Ganago |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Désiré Doué FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| Marquinhos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Beraldo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.89 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Dro Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 68 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 68 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.84 | 1.04 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| João Neves MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Senny Mayulu Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Fabián Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lucas Hernández Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bradley Barcola Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Cozza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederic Guilbert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Youssif DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthis Abline FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Mathieu Acapandié DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| Mostafa Mohamed FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ignatius Ganago Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Bahmed Deuff Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chidozie Awaziem Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef El-Arabi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |