Paris Saint Germain v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 1 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Paris Saint Germain

1–0

1.89 – 0.39 xG

Nice

Shots

28 – 5

On target

8 – 2

Shots in box

16 – 3

xG per shot

0.07 – 0.08

Set-piece xG

0.55 – 0.25

Goals − xG

-0.89 – -0.40

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Paris Saint Germain win

73.1%

Draw

14.4%

Nice win

12.6%

731413

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWDWWLDDL last 10 scored 16 from 19.8 xG conceded 10 from 12.3 xG

Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDDDDLDDLD last 10 scored 6 from 11.6 xG conceded 12 from 17.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	731413	2.56–0.94	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	651817	2.49–1.23	2-1 9%	72%	65%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Paris Saint Germain 1.89 xGNice 0.40 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Paris Saint Germain attacking right Nice attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
4'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
8'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	João Neves
13'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Nuno Mendes
17'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Achraf Hakimi
17'	Paris Saint Germain	Warren Zaïre-Emery	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
20'	Paris Saint Germain	Achraf Hakimi	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
30'	Nice	Morgan Sanson	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ali Abdi
31'	Nice	Juma Bah	0.11	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
31'	Nice	Kojo Peprah Oppong	0.14	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ali Abdi
35'	Paris Saint Germain	Achraf Hakimi	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	João Neves
35'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
38'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.43	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Senny Mayulu
45'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bradley Barcola
46'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Warren Zaïre-Emery
52'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Warren Zaïre-Emery
56'	Paris Saint Germain	Warren Zaïre-Emery	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
57'	Paris Saint Germain	Senny Mayulu	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	William Pacho
60'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.06	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Bradley Barcola
64'	Paris Saint Germain	Bradley Barcola	0.07	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
67'	Paris Saint Germain	Nuno Mendes	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	William Pacho
67'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Fabián
69'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
75'	Paris Saint Germain	Nuno Mendes	0.01	From Corner	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
75'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Fabián
79'	Paris Saint Germain	Gonçalo Ramos	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Lee Kang-In
79'	Paris Saint Germain	Gonçalo Ramos	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Achraf Hakimi
81'	Nice	Jeremie Boga	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Ali Abdi
85'	Paris Saint Germain	Fabián	0.01	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
88'	Nice	Antoine Mendy	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Hichem Boudaoui
88'	Paris Saint Germain	Lee Kang-In	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
92'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Achraf Hakimi
93'	Paris Saint Germain	Gonçalo Ramos	0.08	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
93'	Paris Saint Germain	Gonçalo Ramos	0.47	From Corner	—	Goal	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Players