Paris Saint Germain v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.75 – 0.78
Goals − xG
+0.38 – +0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
80.1%
Draw
11.5%
Paris FC win
8.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLWLWDWW last 10
scored 21
from 22.2 xG
conceded 9
from 11.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.98–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.04–0.81 | 3-0 10% | 74% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xGParis FC 0.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 3' |
 Paris FC |
Alimami Gory | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 22' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 28' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 39' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Mendes |
| 40' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 42' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 44' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabián |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Fabián | 0.46 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 50' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 52' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 62' |
Paris FC |
Adama Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Nuno Mendes | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fabián |
| 66' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Désiré Doué |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Vincent Marchetti | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Paris FC |
Willem Geubbels | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vincent Marchetti |
| 78' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Senny Mayulu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Warren Zaïre-Emery |
| 95' |
Paris FC |
Mathieu Cafaro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nhoa Sangui |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabián MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| João Neves MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Vitinha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Senny Mayulu FWL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| Nuno Mendes DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Désiré Doué FWR | 73 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.67 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marquinhos Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bradley Barcola Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Hernández Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Nsoki Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Geubbels FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adama Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Thibault De Smet DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Timothée Kolodziejczak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maxime Lopez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nhoa Sangui DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Otávio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alimami Gory ML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Ikone MR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mathieu Cafaro Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Julien Lopez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Benoit-Dao Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tuomas Ollila Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |