Paris Saint Germain v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 3 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 5
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 1
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
1.20 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.24 – +0.90
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Paris Saint Germain win
70.0%
Draw
18.0%
Toulouse win
12.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.16–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.26–0.86 | 2-0 11% | 60% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Paris Saint Germain 1.77 xGToulouse 0.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Paris Saint Germain attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 2' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 13' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 15' |
 Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 20' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beraldo |
| 22' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 26' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Goal | Djibril Sidibe |
| 32' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 32' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.91 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 36' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Achraf Hakimi |
| 38' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 53' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lee Kang-In |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 62' |
Paris Saint Germain |
William Pacho | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 72' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 88' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Achraf Hakimi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Gonçalo Ramos | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nuno Mendes |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.05 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| William Pacho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Achraf Hakimi DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Désiré Doué MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 69 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0.23 | 1.01 | 0.34 |
| Beraldo MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Lee Kang-In FWR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| João Neves Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Vitinha Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nuno Mendes Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Aron Dønnum AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Seny Koumbassa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emersonn FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Djibril Sidibe DMR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Azizi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |