Paris Saint Germain v Troyes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Paris Saint Germain

14:00 UTC

Troyes

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 387h before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain win

82.3%

model 80.7%

Draw

10.7%

model 12.2%

Troyes win

7.0%

model 7.1%

82117

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (26 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.4%
3-0 10.2%
2-1 8.2%
3-1 8.0%
4-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	71.8%	Under 2.5	28.2%
BTTS yes	51.7%	BTTS no	48.3%
Paris Saint Germain 1+	94.7%	Paris Saint Germain 2+	79.0%
Troyes 1+	54.6%	Troyes 2+	18.7%

Expected goals 2.93 – 0.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Paris Saint Germain (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 25%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4334 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1852 Elo against 1516.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris Saint Germain have an estimated 82.3% win probability, against 10.7% for the draw and 7.0% for Troyes. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.93 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.79 for Troyes.

Why Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1852 Elo against 1516. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.7%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Troyes can win

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Paris Saint Germain were missing 2.01 expected goal involvements a match against 0.34.

Key players

Paris Saint Germain's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ousmane Dembélé (0.52), Bradley Barcola (0.46), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.44). Troyes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Merwan Ifnaoui (0.30), Renaud Ripart (0.30), Jeremy Le Douaron (0.27).

Availability

2 of Paris Saint Germain's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Paris Saint Germain's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Troyes's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Paris Saint Germain: 68% possession, 24.2 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.70 xG a match from set pieces. Troyes: 40% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Paris Saint Germain are the model's most likely outcome at 82.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.4%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDDLWWWW last 10 scored 18 from 21.4 xG conceded 11 from 15.9 xG

Troyes are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 7 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DWLLLLL last 7 scored 5 from 8.9 xG conceded 16 from 13.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	81127	2.93–0.79	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	8596	3.45–0.87	3-0 9%	81%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	69.4%	64.9%	46.2%	1.40×	1.54
Draw	19.1%	19.4%	22.6%	0.86×	5.15
Troyes to win	11.6%	13.5%	31.3%	0.43×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & not both score	42.9%	40.1%	23.6%	1.70×	2.50
Paris Saint Germain & both teams score	26.4%	25.2%	22.7%	1.11×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	13.0%	13.3%	16.4%	0.81×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.1%	8.3%	6.4%	1.31×	12.02
Troyes & not both score	6.3%	8.3%	15.7%	0.53×	12.02
Troyes & both teams score	5.3%	8.3%	15.8%	0.53×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & over 1.5	56.7%	54.9%	36.2%	1.52×	1.82
Paris Saint Germain & under 3.5	44.6%	40.3%	29.5%	1.36×	2.48
Paris Saint Germain & over 2.5	43.5%	40.3%	28.8%	1.40×	2.48
Paris Saint Germain & under 2.5	25.9%	26.1%	17.6%	1.48×	3.84
Paris Saint Germain & over 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	16.8%	1.28×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Paris Saint Germain & under 1.5	12.7%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	13.0%	12.8%	16.4%	0.78×	7.79
Troyes & under 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	20.2%	0.39×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.25×	12.63
Troyes & over 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	25.3%	0.31×	12.63
Troyes & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	19.8%	0.40×	12.63
Troyes & under 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	11.7%	0.68×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.0%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.81
Troyes & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	6.2%	0.77×	20.81
Troyes & over 3.5	2.1%	4.8%	11.2%	0.43×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	78.4%	78.9%	59.0%	1.34×	1.27
Troyes (1UP)	26.8%	26.8%	48.8%	0.55×	3.74

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	69.4%	68.6%	48.2%	1.42×	1.46
Troyes (2UP)	11.6%	13.9%	33.6%	0.41×	7.18

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win 2nd half	65.3%	62.2%	42.0%	1.48×	1.61
2nd half drawn	27.5%	25.8%	31.3%	0.82×	3.88
Troyes to win 2nd half	7.2%	6.7%	26.9%	0.25×	14.93

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 1.5 in 2nd half	96.9%	94.0%	82.3%	1.14×	1.06
Troyes under 0.5 in 2nd half	76.2%	78.9%	49.8%	1.59×	1.27
Troyes over 0.5 in 2nd half	23.8%	21.1%	50.2%	0.42×	4.74
Troyes over 1.5 in 2nd half	3.1%	6.0%	17.7%	0.34×	16.71

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.3%	74.1%	62.2%	1.19×	1.35
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.6%	63.1%	75.5%	0.84×	1.59
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.4%	36.9%	24.5%	1.50×	2.71
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.7%	25.9%	37.8%	0.69×	3.86

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	88.4%	88.5%	68.7%	1.29×	1.13
Troyes (+2.5)	76.6%	78.5%	90.1%	0.87×	1.27
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	69.4%	68.7%	46.2%	1.49×	1.46
Troyes (+1.5)	55.4%	57.0%	75.5%	0.76×	1.75
Paris Saint Germain (-1.5)	44.6%	43.0%	24.5%	1.75×	2.33
Troyes (+0.5)	30.7%	31.3%	53.8%	0.58×	3.19
Paris Saint Germain (-2.5)	23.4%	21.5%	9.9%	2.17×	4.65
Troyes (-0.5)	11.6%	11.5%	31.3%	0.37×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to concede	87.6%	86.3%	78.1%	1.10×	1.16
Troyes clean sheet	12.4%	13.7%	21.9%	0.63×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to concede in 1st half	51.8%	50.5%	48.2%	1.05×	1.98
Troyes clean sheet in 1st half	48.2%	49.5%	51.8%	0.95×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to concede in 2nd half	74.3%	71.1%	62.2%	1.14×	1.41
Troyes clean sheet in 2nd half	25.7%	28.9%	37.8%	0.76×	3.47

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 6.5 corners	92.7%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Troyes under 5.5 corners	86.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Troyes under 4.5 corners	77.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Troyes under 3.5 corners	62.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Troyes over 2.5 corners	55.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Troyes under 2.5 corners	44.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Troyes over 3.5 corners	37.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Troyes over 4.5 corners	23.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Troyes over 5.5 corners	13.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Troyes over 6.5 corners	7.3%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 3.5 goals	99.4%	97.5%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Troyes under 2.5 goals	96.4%	97.5%	84.5%	1.15×	1.03
Troyes under 1.5 goals	83.9%	81.5%	63.2%	1.29×	1.23
Troyes over 0.5 goals	51.0%	53.5%	70.2%	0.76×	1.87
Troyes under 0.5 goals	49.0%	46.5%	29.8%	1.56×	2.15
Troyes over 1.5 goals	16.1%	18.5%	36.8%	0.50×	5.40
Troyes over 2.5 goals	3.6%	2.5%	15.5%	0.16×	39.85
Troyes over 3.5 goals	0.6%	2.5%	6.4%	0.39×	40.00

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 1.5 in 1st half	92.7%	93.9%	87.7%	1.07×	1.07
Troyes under 0.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.7%	57.9%	1.10×	1.57
Troyes over 0.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.3%	42.1%	0.86×	2.75
Troyes over 1.5 in 1st half	7.3%	6.1%	12.3%	0.50×	16.40

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes scores equally in both	55.0%	51.7%	41.1%	1.26×	1.93
Troyes scores more in 1st half	28.8%	26.4%	24.7%	1.07×	3.79
Troyes scores more in 2nd half	16.2%	17.8%	34.4%	0.52×	5.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (away no bet)	78.4%	73.6%	67.2%	1.10×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	21.6%	26.4%	32.8%	0.80×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes even goals	62.0%	59.1%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
Troyes odd goals	38.0%	40.9%	44.3%	0.92×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.1%	82.8%	82.6%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.9%	17.2%	17.4%	0.99×	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.4%	68.3%	65.9%	1.04×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.6%	31.7%	34.1%	0.93×	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.2%	60.1%	60.5%	0.99×	1.66
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	55.9%	55.1%	38.6%	1.43×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	29.2%	25.2%	22.3%	1.13×	3.96
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	27.7%	25.2%	13.8%	1.83×	3.97
Troyes to score 2+ in a row	10.2%	12.0%	28.0%	0.43×	8.35
Troyes to score 3+ in a row	1.6%	2.5%	9.2%	0.27×	39.76

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain corners (+3.5)	94.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain corners (+2.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain corners (+1.5)	84.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Troyes corners (+3.5)	68.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Troyes corners (+2.5)	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Paris Saint Germain corners (-1.5)	53.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Troyes corners (+1.5)	46.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Paris Saint Germain corners (-2.5)	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Paris Saint Germain corners (-3.5)	31.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Troyes corners (-1.5)	16.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Troyes corners (-2.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Troyes corners (-3.5)	5.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	25.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	18.0%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	82.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	75.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	66.8%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	53.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	33.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	24.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	18.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	12.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	13.2%	11.5%	7.5%	1.52×	8.72
1-0	12.7%	11.5%	10.2%	1.13×	8.72
1-1	9.0%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.50
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
3-0	9.2%	7.4%	3.5%	2.09×	13.50
3-1	6.6%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
0-0	6.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.51
Any other score	6.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
4-0	4.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.29
0-1	4.3%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.29
0-2	1.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-2	3.2%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
1-3	0.8%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.31
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
2-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	3.87×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2nd half DNB)	90.0%	91.7%	60.9%	1.50×	1.09
Troyes (2nd half DNB)	10.0%	8.3%	39.1%	0.21×	12.01

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	65.7%	73.7%	54.1%	1.36×	1.36
Troyes leading at HT (DNB)	34.3%	26.3%	45.9%	0.57×	3.80

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X)	88.4%	86.5%	68.7%	1.26×	1.16
Paris Saint Germain or Troyes (12)	80.9%	80.6%	77.4%	1.04×	1.24
Troyes or draw (X2)	30.7%	35.1%	53.8%	0.65×	2.85

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw at HT	80.1%	84.1%	71.6%	1.17×	1.19
Troyes or draw at HT	61.7%	61.6%	66.6%	0.92×	1.62
Paris Saint Germain or Troyes at HT	58.2%	57.1%	61.6%	0.93×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	88.4%	92.1%	73.1%	1.26×	1.09
Troyes or draw (1UP)	30.7%	38.7%	61.5%	0.63×	2.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw in 2nd half	92.8%	93.3%	73.1%	1.28×	1.07
Paris Saint Germain or Troyes in 2nd half	72.5%	74.2%	68.7%	1.08×	1.35
Troyes or draw in 2nd half	34.7%	37.8%	58.1%	0.65×	2.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.8%	58.4%	57.0%	1.03×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.2%	41.6%	43.0%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	85.7%	87.0%	59.6%	1.46×	1.15
Troyes (DNB)	14.3%	13.0%	40.4%	0.32×	7.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	70.0%	74.9%	50.3%	1.49×	1.34
Troyes to score first	23.9%	23.1%	43.5%	0.53×	4.34
No goal scored	6.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.3%	55.0%	45.3%	1.21×	1.82
Both teams to score	44.7%	45.0%	54.7%	0.82×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	37.8%	38.4%	35.3%	1.09×	2.60
Both score & over 2.5	35.7%	38.4%	44.9%	0.86×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	17.5%	21.6%	10.2%	2.11×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	9.9%	0.84×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.1%	89.0%	84.5%	1.05×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.9%	11.0%	15.5%	0.71×	9.07

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.3%	73.4%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.7%	26.6%	30.6%	0.87×	3.76

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.1%	63.2%	57.2%	1.11×	1.58
Both score 1st half only	15.3%	14.9%	12.4%	1.20×	6.70
Both score 2nd half only	14.4%	10.7%	24.2%	0.44×	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.3%	4.9%	6.5%	0.76×	20.36

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.5%	83.2%	81.2%	1.02×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.5%	16.8%	18.8%	0.90×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	57.3%	59.7%	0.96×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.5%	42.7%	40.3%	1.06×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.2%	43.3%	1.09×	2.12
4-6 goals	28.5%	26.6%	30.9%	0.86×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.0%	22.9%	22.5%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.26

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to score exactly 0	49.0%	42.9%	29.8%	1.44×	2.33
Troyes to score exactly 1	35.0%	33.9%	33.5%	1.01×	2.95
Troyes to score exactly 2	12.5%	12.9%	21.4%	0.60×	7.76
Troyes to score 3+	3.6%	4.6%	15.5%	0.30×	21.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	34.7%	32.6%	22.6%	1.44×	3.07
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	24.1%	1.10×	3.77
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	25.9%	26.5%	31.8%	0.84×	3.77
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	12.4%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.8%	42.9%	38.4%	1.12×	2.33
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	38.3%	38.4%	33.4%	1.15×	2.60
Troyes leading at HT	19.9%	15.9%	28.4%	0.56×	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	44.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	30.7%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	44.6%	42.7%	24.5%	1.74×	2.34
Troyes (0:1)	30.7%	30.1%	53.8%	0.56×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	24.8%	24.2%	21.9%	1.11×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:2)	55.4%	62.8%	75.5%	0.83×	1.59
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	23.4%	20.3%	9.9%	2.05×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	21.2%	20.3%	14.8%	1.37×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:3)	76.6%	80.4%	90.1%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	13.2%	10.0%	5.9%	1.69×	10.04
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	10.2%	9.9%	4.1%	2.40×	10.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (0:4)	89.8%	92.0%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.5%	4.6%	2.8%	1.64×	21.70
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	3.7%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.69

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	88.4%	86.1%	68.7%	1.25×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.5%	6.9%	14.6%	0.47×	14.48
Troyes (1:0)	3.1%	3.3%	16.8%	0.19×	30.62

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	96.9%	96.8%	83.2%	1.16×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	9.9%	0.23×	43.68
Troyes (2:0)	0.6%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.79

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.0%	48.8%	48.2%	1.01×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.5%	26.2%	26.0%	1.01×	3.81
Halves equal	24.5%	24.4%	26.0%	0.94×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede	51.0%	53.2%	70.2%	0.76×	1.88
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	49.0%	46.8%	29.8%	1.57×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 1st half	64.2%	63.6%	57.9%	1.10×	1.57
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 1st half	35.8%	36.4%	42.1%	0.86×	2.75

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 2nd half	76.2%	83.1%	49.8%	1.67×	1.20
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 2nd half	23.8%	16.9%	50.2%	0.34×	5.92

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 corners	80.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Paris Saint Germain under 6.5 corners	71.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners	66.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners	60.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners	52.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Paris Saint Germain under 4.5 corners	47.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Paris Saint Germain over 5.5 corners	39.5%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 corners	33.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Paris Saint Germain over 6.5 corners	28.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 corners	19.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals	87.6%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals	84.1%	82.2%	91.6%	0.90×	1.22
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals	65.3%	67.9%	77.4%	0.88×	1.47
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals	61.8%	63.6%	46.5%	1.37×	1.57
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals	38.2%	36.4%	53.5%	0.68×	2.75
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals	34.7%	32.1%	22.6%	1.42×	3.12
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals	15.9%	17.8%	8.4%	2.11×	5.62
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals	12.4%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 1st half	83.4%	83.8%	87.1%	0.96×	1.19
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 1st half	51.8%	50.3%	48.2%	1.05×	1.99
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 1st half	48.2%	49.7%	51.8%	0.96×	2.01
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 1st half	16.7%	16.2%	12.9%	1.26×	6.16

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 2nd half	51.8%	57.6%	40.9%	1.41×	1.74
Paris Saint Germain scores equally in both	28.1%	27.8%	36.6%	0.76×	3.59
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 1st half	20.1%	21.1%	22.6%	0.93×	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	62.3%	60.0%	41.9%	1.43×	1.67
Troyes (home no bet)	37.7%	40.0%	58.1%	0.69×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain even goals	50.8%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Paris Saint Germain odd goals	49.2%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.9%	33.3%	28.5%	1.17×	3.00
HT 1-0	22.6%	24.4%	21.4%	1.14×	4.09
HT 0-1	13.7%	11.0%	16.8%	0.66×	9.06
HT 1-1	10.0%	11.0%	9.5%	1.16×	9.10
HT 2-0	8.3%	6.9%	6.8%	1.02×	14.47
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.97
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.4%	3.3%	0.73×	42.04
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.4%	5.2%	0.46×	42.08
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.13
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	36.3%	41.6%	27.8%	1.50×	2.40
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	27.3%	27.2%	15.1%	1.81×	3.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.5%	12.6%	12.7%	0.99×	7.92
Troyes at HT / Troyes at FT	8.3%	6.0%	18.9%	0.32×	16.59
Troyes at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	5.8%	6.0%	3.7%	1.63×	16.66
Troyes at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	6.1%	0.99×	16.66
Draw at HT / Troyes at FT	3.0%	3.5%	10.9%	0.32×	28.65
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	1.8%	3.5%	4.1%	0.84×	28.70
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Troyes at FT	0.2%	3.5%	1.8%	1.96×	28.76

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	70.0%	72.4%	53.0%	1.37×	1.38
Troyes to score last	23.9%	25.9%	40.8%	0.63×	3.86
No goal scored	6.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.9%	92.7%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	78.4%	78.5%	59.0%	1.33×	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.6%	54.8%	51.6%	1.06×	1.82
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	50.0%	44.6%	30.0%	1.49×	2.24
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.0%	25.5%	19.8%	1.29×	3.92
Troyes to lead by 1 at any time	26.8%	25.5%	48.8%	0.52×	3.92
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	25.9%	25.5%	11.7%	2.18×	3.93
Troyes to lead by 2 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	21.7%	0.31×	14.98
Troyes to lead by 3 at any time	1.0%	1.6%	8.3%	0.19×	63.68

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain most corners	65.2%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Troyes most corners	24.5%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	85.2%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.7%	78.7%	76.8%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.6%	72.4%	74.0%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.5%	72.4%	69.1%	1.05×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.1%	63.3%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	60.7%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.7%	53.2%	51.4%	1.03×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.6%	48.5%	46.5%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.5%	43.3%	1.12×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.8%	43.6%	38.8%	1.12×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.9%	39.2%	38.1%	1.03×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.5%	30.2%	30.9%	0.98×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.4%	24.5%	26.0%	0.94×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.9%	14.8%	13.4%	1.10×	6.75
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	67.1%	69.2%	51.2%	1.35×	1.44
Troyes never behind	15.5%	18.1%	41.0%	0.44×	5.52

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.7%	82.3%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.0%	77.3%	77.5%	1.00×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.1%	66.3%	65.6%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	53.1%	52.5%	54.9%	0.96×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.5%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.9%	33.7%	34.4%	0.98×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	23.0%	22.7%	22.5%	1.01×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.3%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	8.6%	0.90×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	6.4%	1.22×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.4%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.9%	81.1%	79.4%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.8%	67.5%	71.0%	0.95×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.3%	61.9%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.7%	38.1%	43.3%	0.88×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.2%	32.5%	29.0%	1.12×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.1%	18.9%	20.6%	0.92×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	7.6%	9.4%	0.81×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	3.9%	0.72×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.2%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.5%	71.5%	0.96×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.2%	68.4%	66.5%	1.03×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.6%	33.5%	0.94×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.5%	28.5%	1.11×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.8%	12.6%	0.86×	9.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.4%	83.1%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.6%	79.4%	75.3%	1.05×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.5%	53.1%	50.2%	1.06×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.5%	46.9%	49.8%	0.94×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.4%	20.6%	24.7%	0.84×	4.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.6%	16.9%	18.2%	0.93×	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes not to score in both halves	91.5%	90.2%	77.8%	1.16×	1.11
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	61.5%	63.6%	67.8%	0.94×	1.57
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	38.5%	36.4%	32.2%	1.13×	2.74
Troyes to score in both halves	8.5%	9.8%	22.2%	0.44×	10.18

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.7%	46.6%	54.7%	0.85×	2.15
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	42.9%	46.6%	23.6%	1.97×	2.15
Only Troyes scores	6.3%	7.1%	15.7%	0.45×	14.05
Neither team scores	6.1%	7.1%	6.4%	1.12×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	22.7%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.7%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.0%	17.5%	16.2%	1.07×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.5%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.1%	7.6%	6.4%	1.20×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.4%	38.1%	0.98×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	30.9%	35.8%	28.5%	1.26×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.5%	10.7%	12.6%	0.85×	9.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.5%	45.2%	49.8%	0.91×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	33.8%	32.2%	1.05×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.6%	16.5%	18.2%	0.91×	6.05

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes not to win both halves	98.6%	97.2%	90.7%	1.07×	1.03
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	75.0%	75.2%	83.6%	0.90×	1.33
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	25.0%	24.8%	16.4%	1.51×	4.03
Troyes to win both halves	1.4%	2.8%	9.3%	0.30×	36.17

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win either half	78.6%	80.0%	58.9%	1.36×	1.25
Troyes to win neither half	74.3%	73.1%	54.1%	1.35×	1.37
Troyes to win either half	25.7%	26.9%	45.9%	0.58×	3.72
Paris Saint Germain to win neither half	21.4%	20.0%	41.1%	0.49×	4.99

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes not to win to nil	93.7%	92.1%	84.3%	1.09×	1.09
Paris Saint Germain not to win to nil	57.1%	59.2%	76.4%	0.78×	1.69
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil	42.9%	40.8%	23.6%	1.73×	2.45
Troyes to win to nil	6.3%	7.9%	15.7%	0.50×	12.68

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain by 1	24.8%	24.1%	21.9%	1.10×	4.15
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	23.4%	24.1%	9.9%	2.44×	4.15
Paris Saint Germain by 2	21.2%	24.1%	14.8%	1.63×	4.15
Draw	19.1%	17.1%	22.6%	0.75×	5.86
Troyes by 1	8.5%	7.2%	14.6%	0.49×	13.90
Troyes by 2	2.5%	2.7%	9.9%	0.27×	36.83
Troyes by 3+	0.6%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.89