Parma Calcio 1913 v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 27 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.32 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
38.0%
Draw
30.2%
Cagliari win
31.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.14–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.19 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 1.32 xGCagliari 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 13' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 14' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
| 16' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 20' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 22' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 28' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sascha Britschgi |
| 30' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Cagliari |
Adam Obert | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sulemana |
| 38' |
Cagliari |
Sulemana | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
| 38' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 40' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 41' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Obert |
| 48' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 51' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Obert |
| 59' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Zé Pedro |
| 59' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 65' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 80' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sascha Britschgi |
| 82' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 95' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Lautaro Valenti | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mariano Troilo |
| 95' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mariano Troilo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 96' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Emanuele Valeri ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Sascha Britschgi MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| Mandela Keita DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 44 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Cremaschi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Adam Obert DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Alberto Dossena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joseph Liteta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 87 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Sulemana MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Michael Folorunsho Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |