Parma Calcio 1913 v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.64
Goals − xG
-1.03 – -0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
35.3%
Draw
29.8%
Cagliari win
34.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.04–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.20–1.27 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 1.03 xGCagliari 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 6' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Niakhate Ndiaye | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Simone Lontani |
| 10' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 12' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
El Bilal Touré | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 14' |
Cagliari |
Daniel Maldini | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 19' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Abdou-Salam Konate | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 33' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Obert |
| 36' |
Cagliari |
Zé Pedro | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 41' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
| 43' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mariano Troilo |
| 45' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.26 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Romano |
| 49' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Zé Pedro |
| 51' |
Cagliari |
Harry Winks | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 57' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 58' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simone Lontani | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 59' |
Cagliari |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Maldini |
| 63' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Paul Mendy |
| 64' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Romano | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Cagliari |
Harry Winks | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 78' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Romano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ndary Adopo |
| 83' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
| 87' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 92' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Nesta Elphege | 0.23 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.02 |
| El Bilal Touré FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Abdou-Salam Konate MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Simone Lontani FWL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 0.09 |
| Mandela Keita FWR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rachid Kouda Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ousmane Diallo Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nesta Elphege Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamín Cremaschi Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Deiola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Alessandro Romano DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Ndary Adopo AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Daniel Maldini AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Zé Pedro DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Paul Mendy FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Jacopo Fazzini AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Mattia Felici Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Giuseppe Aurelio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kingstone Mutandwa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |