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Parma Calcio 1913 v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 August 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

Parma Calcio 1913
1–1
1.84 – 0.81 xG
Fiorentina
Shots
14 – 15
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-0.86 – +0.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Dennis Man 21' — goalCristiano Biraghi 74' — goal
Parma Calcio 1913 1.86 xGFiorentina 0.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mihai Valentin Mihaila 3' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Simon Sohm 3' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mihai Valentin Mihaila 4' — Missed Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)Rolando Mandragora 5' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Dodô 9' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lucas Martínez Quarta 9' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 17' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Moise Kean 19' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dennis Man 21' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Cristiano Biraghi 24' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Mihai Valentin Mihaila 27' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Simon Sohm 27' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Simon Sohm 27' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Dennis Man 28' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Mihai Valentin Mihaila 29' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nahuel Estévez 35' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Moise Kean 41' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 42' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Ange-Yoan Bonny 46' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Adrián Bernabé 53' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Andrea Colpani 55' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rolando Mandragora 62' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Ikone 65' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rolando Mandragora 67' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dodô 70' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Cristiano Biraghi 74' — Goal (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)Michael Kayode 81' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Drissa Camara 84' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Wylan Cyprien 87' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right Fiorentina attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Parma Calcio 1913 Mihai Valentin Mihaila 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
3' Parma Calcio 1913 Simon Sohm 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dennis Man
4' Parma Calcio 1913 Mihai Valentin Mihaila 0.49 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
5' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dodô
9' Fiorentina Dodô 0.01 Open Play — Blocked Shot Cristiano Biraghi
9' Fiorentina Lucas Martínez Quarta 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Christian Kouamé
17' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.35 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
19' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
21' Parma Calcio 1913 Dennis Man 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ange-Yoan Bonny
24' Fiorentina Cristiano Biraghi 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Sofyan Amrabat
27' Parma Calcio 1913 Mihai Valentin Mihaila 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ange-Yoan Bonny
27' Parma Calcio 1913 Simon Sohm 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
27' Parma Calcio 1913 Simon Sohm 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dennis Man
28' Parma Calcio 1913 Dennis Man 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Ange-Yoan Bonny
29' Parma Calcio 1913 Mihai Valentin Mihaila 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nahuel Estévez
35' Parma Calcio 1913 Nahuel Estévez 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Adrián Bernabé
41' Fiorentina Moise Kean 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Christian Kouamé
42' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot —
46' Parma Calcio 1913 Ange-Yoan Bonny 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Woyo Coulibaly
53' Parma Calcio 1913 Adrián Bernabé 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ange-Yoan Bonny
55' Fiorentina Andrea Colpani 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dodô
62' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sofyan Amrabat
65' Fiorentina Jonathan Ikone 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marin Pongracic
67' Fiorentina Rolando Mandragora 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
70' Fiorentina Dodô 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
74' Fiorentina Cristiano Biraghi 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Goal —
81' Fiorentina Michael Kayode 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
84' Parma Calcio 1913 Drissa Camara 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Matteo Cancellieri
87' Parma Calcio 1913 Wylan Cyprien 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pontus Almqvist

Players

Parma Calcio 1913

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nahuel Estévez DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.06 0.45
Zion Suzuki GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Woyo Coulibaly DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Emanuele Valeri DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Botond Balogh DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alessandro Circati DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adrián Bernabé AMC 82 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.14
Simon Sohm DMC 78 0 0 3 0 0.48 0.00 0.48
Mihai Valentin Mihaila AML 67 0 0 4 0 0.76 0.00 0.76
Dennis Man AMR 67 1 0 2 2 0.10 0.38 0.54
Ange-Yoan Bonny FW 67 0 1 1 4 0.09 0.24 0.30
Drissa Camara Sub 23 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Antoine Hainaut Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pontus Almqvist Sub 23 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.35 0.35
Matteo Cancellieri Sub 12 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Wylan Cyprien Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.35 0.00 0.35

Fiorentina

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Moise Kean FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 0.13
Cristiano Biraghi DML 90 1 0 2 1 0.09 0.01 0.09
Dodô DMR 90 0 0 2 2 0.02 0.04 0.18
Pietro Terracciano GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Sofyan Amrabat MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.09
Marin Pongracic DC 85 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Christian Kouamé AMC 82 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.15
Rolando Mandragora MC 75 0 0 3 0 0.06 0.00 0.11
Pietro Comuzzo DC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Andrea Colpani AMC 62 0 0 3 0 0.40 0.00 0.41
Lucas Martínez Quarta DC 62 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.17
Jonathan Ikone Sub 28 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.04
Fabiano Parisi Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Michael Kayode Sub 15 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Alessandro Bianco Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Riccardo Sottil Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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