Parma Calcio 1913 v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Parma Calcio 1913

14:00 UTC

Fiorentina

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 1,179h before kick-off

Parma Calcio 1913 win

26.5%

model 27.2%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.5%

Fiorentina win

47.0%

model 47.4%

262647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.1%
0-1 11.0%
1-2 9.3%
0-2 8.5%
1-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.0%	Under 2.5	51.0%
BTTS yes	52.3%	BTTS no	47.7%
Parma Calcio 1913 1+	66.6%	Parma Calcio 1913 2+	30.0%
Fiorentina 1+	78.5%	Fiorentina 2+	45.4%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

88/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Fiorentina or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 60%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.0% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4336 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Fiorentina carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1433.
Fiorentina have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Parma Calcio 1913 have allowed 1.95.
Away from home Fiorentina average 0.97 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Fiorentina have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for Parma Calcio 1913 and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.10 for Parma Calcio 1913 and 1.54 for Fiorentina.

Why Parma Calcio 1913

Parma Calcio 1913 have created 0.89 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.72. At home Parma Calcio 1913 average 1.06 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.45.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Fiorentina can win

Fiorentina carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1433. Fiorentina have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Parma Calcio 1913 have allowed 1.95. Away from home Fiorentina average 0.97 xG a match.

Key players

Parma Calcio 1913's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateo Pellegrino (0.33), Gabriel Strefezza (0.23), Adrián Bernabé (0.19). Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.51), Franco Mastantuono (0.47), Alieu Njie (0.44).

Availability

1 of Parma Calcio 1913's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Parma Calcio 1913's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Parma Calcio 1913: 40% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Fiorentina are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Parma Calcio 1913 are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWLLDLWLLL last 10 scored 6 from 8.9 xG conceded 16 from 19.5 xG

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	272547	1.10–1.54	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	312940	1.00–1.19	1-1 13%	38%	44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win	39.7%	36.4%	33.6%	1.08×	2.75
Parma Calcio 1913 to win	33.1%	30.4%	40.1%	0.76×	3.29
Draw	27.2%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & not both score	22.8%	21.8%	20.6%	1.06×	4.58
Parma Calcio 1913 & not both score	18.8%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.56
Fiorentina & both teams score	16.8%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.57
Parma Calcio 1913 & both teams score	14.3%	13.3%	17.7%	0.75×	7.53
Draw & not both score	8.6%	8.3%	7.9%	1.06×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & under 3.5	29.8%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Fiorentina & over 1.5	28.5%	26.1%	24.6%	1.06×	3.84
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 3.5	25.4%	26.1%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 1.5	23.1%	21.6%	30.1%	0.72×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	21.5%	21.6%	19.6%	1.10×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.5%	21.6%	19.6%	1.10×	4.63
Fiorentina & over 2.5	21.3%	21.6%	18.0%	1.20×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Fiorentina & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	15.7%	1.15×	5.56
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.56
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Fiorentina & under 1.5	11.2%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Parma Calcio 1913 & under 1.5	10.0%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	8.6%	7.9%	7.9%	1.00×	12.63
Fiorentina & over 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	7.4%	1.07×	12.63
Parma Calcio 1913 & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	10.6%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1UP)	54.8%	52.6%	50.3%	1.05×	1.90
Parma Calcio 1913 (1UP)	49.0%	44.0%	55.4%	0.79×	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2UP)	39.7%	37.6%	36.1%	1.04×	2.66
Parma Calcio 1913 (2UP)	33.1%	30.4%	42.1%	0.72×	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	35.8%	36.2%	34.9%	1.04×	2.77
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	32.1%	34.1%	30.2%	1.13×	2.93
Parma Calcio 1913 to win 2nd half	32.1%	34.1%	35.0%	0.97×	2.93

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	84.2%	84.8%	0.99×	1.19
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.3%	52.8%	50.2%	1.05×	1.90
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.7%	47.2%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	15.8%	15.2%	1.04×	6.32

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.6%	81.1%	1.02×	1.21
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.2%	55.3%	53.9%	1.03×	1.81
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.8%	44.7%	46.1%	0.97×	2.24
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.4%	18.9%	0.92×	5.75

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (+2.5)	95.7%	96.3%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Fiorentina (+1.5)	86.5%	88.5%	82.4%	1.07×	1.13
Fiorentina (+0.5)	66.9%	68.7%	59.9%	1.15×	1.46
Parma Calcio 1913 (+0.5)	60.3%	62.9%	66.4%	0.95×	1.59
Fiorentina (-0.5)	39.7%	37.1%	33.6%	1.10×	2.70
Parma Calcio 1913 (-0.5)	33.1%	31.3%	40.1%	0.78×	3.19
Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)	13.5%	11.5%	17.6%	0.66×	8.67
Parma Calcio 1913 (-2.5)	4.3%	3.7%	7.6%	0.48×	27.04

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	68.6%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
Fiorentina clean sheet	31.4%	27.6%	28.3%	0.98×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	68.7%	71.4%	57.9%	1.23×	1.40
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	31.3%	28.6%	42.1%	0.68×	3.50

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	54.2%	54.9%	53.9%	1.02×	1.82
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	45.8%	45.1%	46.1%	0.98×	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	80.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	74.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	70.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	58.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	57.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	41.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	29.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	25.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	95.8%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	85.9%	87.8%	88.1%	1.00×	1.14
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	72.6%	71.8%	69.7%	1.03×	1.39
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	62.9%	63.2%	64.9%	0.97×	1.58
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	37.1%	36.8%	35.1%	1.05×	2.72
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	27.4%	28.2%	30.3%	0.93×	3.55
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	14.1%	12.2%	11.9%	1.02×	8.19
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.5%	2.9%	0.88×	39.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	90.6%	93.7%	90.0%	1.04×	1.07
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	60.0%	62.2%	59.0%	1.05×	1.61
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	40.0%	37.8%	41.0%	0.92×	2.64
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	9.4%	6.3%	10.0%	0.62×	15.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores equally in both	39.5%	37.5%	43.3%	0.87×	2.67
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.5%	33.1%	1.13×	2.67
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	21.9%	21.8%	23.8%	0.92×	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (away no bet)	54.8%	51.7%	60.3%	0.86×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.2%	48.3%	39.7%	1.22×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	53.8%	52.6%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Fiorentina odd goals	46.2%	47.4%	44.4%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.7%	88.0%	87.3%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.3%	12.0%	12.7%	0.95×	8.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	58.3%	60.5%	60.5%	1.00×	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	41.7%	39.5%	39.5%	1.00×	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.0%	46.3%	53.6%	0.86×	2.16
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.1%	27.8%	0.90×	3.98
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 2+ in a row	24.9%	19.7%	32.0%	0.61×	5.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.9%	16.2%	17.8%	0.91×	6.18
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	9.2%	5.6%	7.9%	0.71×	17.93
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+ in a row	6.8%	5.5%	10.0%	0.55×	18.12

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+3.5)	82.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	77.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+2.5)	74.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	68.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (+1.5)	64.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	35.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-1.5)	31.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	25.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-2.5)	22.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Parma Calcio 1913 corners (-3.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	14.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.90

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.9%	11.5%	11.8%	0.97×	8.71
0-1	11.2%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
0-0	8.6%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
1-0	10.0%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
0-2	7.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.51
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	9.4%	0.78×	13.51
2-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.51
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
1-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.39×	58.31
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.31
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.18×	58.32
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	50.0%	53.2%	46.3%	1.15×	1.88
Parma Calcio 1913 (2nd half DNB)	50.0%	46.8%	53.7%	0.87×	2.14

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	59.4%	56.6%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT (DNB)	40.6%	43.4%	51.3%	0.85×	2.30

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 or Fiorentina (12)	72.8%	72.1%	73.6%	0.98×	1.39
Fiorentina or draw (X2)	66.9%	69.6%	59.9%	1.16×	1.44
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (1X)	60.3%	63.6%	66.4%	0.96×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw at HT	79.5%	79.5%	71.6%	1.11×	1.26
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw at HT	70.0%	74.7%	73.0%	1.02×	1.34
Parma Calcio 1913 or Fiorentina at HT	50.5%	47.6%	55.3%	0.86×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	66.9%	76.3%	65.4%	1.17×	1.31
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw (1UP)	60.3%	71.4%	71.7%	1.00×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	67.9%	65.9%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 or draw in 2nd half	67.9%	65.9%	69.8%	0.94×	1.52
Parma Calcio 1913 or Fiorentina in 2nd half	64.2%	63.8%	65.1%	0.98×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.6%	68.2%	63.6%	1.07×	1.47
Neither half drawn	32.4%	31.8%	36.4%	0.87×	3.14

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (DNB)	54.5%	51.0%	45.5%	1.12×	1.96
Parma Calcio 1913 (DNB)	45.5%	49.0%	54.5%	0.90×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score first	48.2%	46.0%	43.5%	1.06×	2.17
Parma Calcio 1913 to score first	43.1%	41.7%	48.7%	0.86×	2.40
No goal scored	8.6%	7.5%	7.9%	0.95×	13.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.2%	51.3%	50.8%	1.01×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.8%	48.7%	49.2%	0.99×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.7%	41.6%	40.1%	1.04×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	36.8%	38.4%	37.5%	1.02×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.5%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.6%	86.4%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.4%	13.6%	1.06×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.6%	73.6%	74.7%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.4%	26.4%	25.3%	1.04×	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.7%	65.7%	62.6%	1.05×	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	25.7%	27.2%	20.6%	1.32×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	8.8%	6.9%	12.2%	0.56×	14.59
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.5%	85.5%	83.0%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.5%	14.5%	17.0%	0.85×	6.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	53.5%	53.0%	47.3%	1.12×	1.89
A goal in each half	46.5%	47.0%	52.7%	0.89×	2.13

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	47.2%	48.5%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	29.8%	26.6%	26.9%	0.99×	3.76
4-6 goals	21.9%	22.9%	23.9%	0.96×	4.37
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	27.4%	27.4%	30.3%	0.90×	3.65
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	23.0%	22.3%	23.3%	0.96×	4.49
Fiorentina to score 3+	14.1%	12.9%	11.9%	1.08×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.6%	31.9%	1.11×	2.81
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 0	31.4%	32.6%	28.3%	1.15×	3.07
Parma Calcio 1913 to score exactly 2	21.0%	23.3%	24.9%	0.94×	4.29
Parma Calcio 1913 to score 3+	11.1%	14.3%	15.2%	0.94×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.5%	52.4%	44.7%	1.17×	1.91
Fiorentina leading at HT	30.0%	25.3%	27.0%	0.94×	3.95
Parma Calcio 1913 leading at HT	20.5%	20.5%	28.4%	0.72×	4.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina -1: 1	60.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Fiorentina -1: X	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Fiorentina -1: 2	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:1)	66.9%	65.2%	59.9%	1.09×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	22.7%	0.79×	5.60
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:1)	13.5%	13.7%	17.6%	0.78×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:2)	86.5%	87.1%	82.4%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.2%	7.7%	10.0%	0.76×	13.03
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:2)	4.3%	3.8%	7.6%	0.49×	26.63

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:3)	95.7%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.09
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	82.07
Parma Calcio 1913 (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (1:0)	60.3%	65.2%	66.4%	0.98×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	21.9%	21.7%	19.2%	1.13×	4.61
Fiorentina (1:0)	17.8%	17.1%	14.5%	1.18×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 (2:0)	82.2%	84.6%	85.5%	0.99×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.6%	10.3%	8.7%	1.18×	9.73
Fiorentina (2:0)	6.2%	6.4%	5.9%	1.09×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.3%	50.3%	46.5%	1.08×	1.99
Halves equal	25.4%	26.2%	26.8%	0.98×	3.82
1st half highest scoring	21.3%	24.3%	26.9%	0.91×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede	72.6%	73.1%	69.7%	1.05×	1.37
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet	27.4%	26.9%	30.3%	0.89×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 1st half	60.0%	62.2%	59.0%	1.05×	1.61
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 1st half	40.0%	37.8%	41.0%	0.92×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to concede in 2nd half	54.3%	52.9%	50.2%	1.05×	1.89
Parma Calcio 1913 clean sheet in 2nd half	45.7%	47.1%	49.8%	0.95×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 6.5 corners	82.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Parma Calcio 1913 under 5.5 corners	73.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 corners	72.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Parma Calcio 1913 under 4.5 corners	60.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 corners	55.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 corners	44.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Parma Calcio 1913 over 4.5 corners	39.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 corners	28.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Parma Calcio 1913 over 5.5 corners	27.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Parma Calcio 1913 over 6.5 corners	17.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 3.5 goals	97.0%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Parma Calcio 1913 under 2.5 goals	88.9%	87.3%	84.8%	1.03×	1.15
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 goals	68.6%	68.0%	71.7%	0.95×	1.47
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 goals	67.8%	68.0%	60.1%	1.13×	1.47
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 goals	32.2%	32.1%	39.9%	0.80×	3.12
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 goals	31.4%	32.0%	28.3%	1.13×	3.12
Parma Calcio 1913 over 2.5 goals	11.1%	12.7%	15.2%	0.84×	7.85
Parma Calcio 1913 over 3.5 goals	3.0%	3.6%	4.7%	0.78×	27.54

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	94.9%	89.4%	1.06×	1.05
Parma Calcio 1913 under 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	69.6%	57.9%	1.20×	1.44
Parma Calcio 1913 over 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	30.4%	42.1%	0.72×	3.29
Parma Calcio 1913 over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	5.1%	10.6%	0.48×	19.69

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 scores more in 2nd half	42.2%	42.1%	36.4%	1.15×	2.38
Parma Calcio 1913 scores equally in both	41.4%	42.0%	41.6%	1.01×	2.38
Parma Calcio 1913 scores more in 1st half	16.4%	14.6%	22.1%	0.66×	6.87

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (home no bet)	59.3%	56.5%	56.0%	1.01×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.7%	43.5%	44.0%	0.99×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 even goals	54.9%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Parma Calcio 1913 odd goals	45.1%	49.3%	43.7%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.2%	38.6%	33.9%	1.14×	2.59
HT 0-1	21.1%	24.3%	18.0%	1.35×	4.12
HT 1-0	15.5%	18.5%	18.5%	1.00×	5.42
HT 1-1	7.9%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.45
HT 0-2	5.4%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.49
HT 2-0	2.9%	2.4%	5.7%	0.42×	42.02
HT 1-2	2.0%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.08
Any other HT score	2.2%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.07
HT 2-1	1.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.11
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	0.7%	3.31×	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	22.0%	21.7%	19.0%	1.14×	4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.7%	16.8%	16.0%	1.05×	5.96
Draw at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	15.9%	16.8%	16.0%	1.05×	5.96
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	15.9%	16.8%	12.9%	1.30×	5.96
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	14.7%	12.7%	22.0%	0.58×	7.90
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.1%	5.9%	1.04×	16.49
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.83
Fiorentina at HT / Parma Calcio 1913 at FT	2.5%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.88
Parma Calcio 1913 at HT / Fiorentina at FT	1.8%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score last	48.2%	46.5%	44.2%	1.05×	2.15
Parma Calcio 1913 to score last	43.1%	40.2%	48.0%	0.84×	2.49
No goal scored	8.6%	7.5%	7.9%	0.95×	13.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.4%	92.6%	92.1%	1.01×	1.08
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	54.8%	50.9%	50.3%	1.01×	1.97
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 1 at any time	49.0%	44.4%	55.4%	0.80×	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.5%	39.2%	44.0%	0.89×	2.55
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	23.2%	19.6%	20.2%	0.97×	5.11
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 2 at any time	18.5%	14.9%	24.3%	0.61×	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.3%	10.5%	15.1%	0.70×	9.50
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	7.8%	6.7%	6.5%	1.04×	14.94
Parma Calcio 1913 to lead by 3 at any time	5.5%	6.6%	8.7%	0.76×	15.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina most corners	46.3%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Parma Calcio 1913 most corners	42.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.1%	83.4%	80.6%	1.03×	1.20
2-6 goals	69.0%	68.8%	72.3%	0.95×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.2%	68.8%	67.5%	1.02×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.4%	68.8%	70.1%	0.98×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.0%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
1-2 goals	47.0%	48.5%	44.1%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.1%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
3-6 goals	43.1%	43.6%	47.3%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.5%	43.6%	45.2%	0.97×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.1%	35.2%	36.7%	0.96×	2.84
4-6 goals	21.9%	24.5%	23.9%	1.02×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.3%	18.8%	21.7%	0.87×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.9%	8.9%	10.8%	0.83×	11.26
7+ goals	1.3%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina never behind	42.4%	48.6%	44.6%	1.09×	2.06
Parma Calcio 1913 never behind	36.6%	44.1%	49.7%	0.89×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	48.5%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.5%	57.7%	56.6%	1.02×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.5%	42.3%	43.4%	0.98×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	50.7%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.1%	95.4%	96.9%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.8%	87.6%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.8%	77.3%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.2%	72.5%	73.1%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.7%	58.6%	51.9%	1.13×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	44.3%	41.4%	48.1%	0.86×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	29.8%	27.5%	26.9%	1.02×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	23.2%	22.7%	24.7%	0.92×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	10.2%	12.4%	11.6%	1.07×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	7.9%	0.98×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.9%	4.6%	3.1%	1.47×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.9%	97.2%	96.6%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.2%	86.7%	86.7%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.6%	72.4%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.8%	55.8%	64.2%	0.87×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.2%	44.2%	35.8%	1.23×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.4%	27.6%	32.3%	0.86×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.8%	13.3%	13.3%	0.99×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.1%	2.8%	3.4%	0.83×	35.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.9%	92.8%	91.3%	1.02×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.7%	78.5%	70.3%	1.12×	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.8%	63.9%	66.1%	0.97×	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.2%	36.1%	33.9%	1.06×	2.77
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.3%	21.5%	29.7%	0.72×	4.66
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.1%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.81

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	79.7%	82.2%	0.97×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.7%	78.7%	1.01×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	53.3%	56.6%	0.94×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	46.7%	43.4%	1.08×	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.3%	21.3%	0.95×	4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	20.3%	17.8%	1.14×	4.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to score in both halves	83.0%	84.2%	75.7%	1.11×	1.19
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	78.3%	78.6%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
Fiorentina to score in both halves	21.7%	21.4%	21.5%	1.00×	4.67
Parma Calcio 1913 to score in both halves	17.0%	15.8%	24.3%	0.65×	6.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.8%	50.7%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Only Fiorentina scores	22.8%	22.3%	20.6%	1.08×	4.49
Only Parma Calcio 1913 scores	18.8%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.24
Neither team scores	8.6%	7.1%	7.9%	0.90×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.9%	24.9%	25.1%	0.99×	4.02
Exactly 1 goals	21.1%	22.6%	19.1%	1.18×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	13.0%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	8.6%	7.6%	7.9%	0.97×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	6.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.9%	4.5%	3.1%	1.44×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	41.2%	38.6%	33.9%	1.14×	2.59
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	16.2%	15.6%	21.1%	0.74×	6.43
3+ goals in 1st half	6.1%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.81

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.3%	44.7%	43.4%	1.03×	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	20.9%	22.6%	21.3%	1.06×	4.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win both halves	93.4%	94.2%	90.0%	1.05×	1.06
Fiorentina not to win both halves	90.4%	94.1%	91.2%	1.03×	1.06
Fiorentina to win both halves	9.6%	5.9%	8.8%	0.67×	16.90
Parma Calcio 1913 to win both halves	6.6%	5.8%	10.0%	0.58×	17.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 to win neither half	54.0%	54.3%	46.6%	1.17×	1.84
Fiorentina to win either half	52.5%	54.3%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Fiorentina to win neither half	47.5%	45.7%	51.6%	0.89×	2.19
Parma Calcio 1913 to win either half	46.0%	45.7%	53.4%	0.86×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Parma Calcio 1913 not to win to nil	81.2%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Fiorentina not to win to nil	77.2%	78.1%	79.5%	0.98×	1.28
Fiorentina to win to nil	22.8%	21.9%	20.6%	1.07×	4.57
Parma Calcio 1913 to win to nil	18.8%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.2%	27.9%	26.4%	1.06×	3.59
Fiorentina by 1	21.9%	24.1%	19.2%	1.25×	4.15
Parma Calcio 1913 by 1	19.6%	17.1%	22.7%	0.75×	5.86
Fiorentina by 2	11.6%	11.7%	8.7%	1.35×	8.51
Parma Calcio 1913 by 2	9.2%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Fiorentina by 3+	6.2%	7.2%	5.9%	1.23×	13.91
Parma Calcio 1913 by 3+	4.3%	2.7%	7.6%	0.36×	36.80