Parma Calcio 1913 v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.46 – -1.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
36.0%
Draw
28.7%
Genoa win
35.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWLLDLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 8.6 xG
conceded 17
from 20.9 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLLDLWL last 10
scored 6
from 9.7 xG
conceded 16
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.21 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.46 xGGenoa 1.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Marcandalli |
| 4' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 5' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 13' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 15' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 28' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 30' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 33' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Nahuel Estévez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Alessandro Circati | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 39' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 40' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Marcandalli |
| 45' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 56' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Sascha Britschgi | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Valenti |
| 68' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 71' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 74' |
Genoa |
Morten Frendrup | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 79' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Milan Djuric | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 84' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Oliver Sørensen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Milan Djuric |
| 87' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrizio Masini |
| 89' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Sascha Britschgi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamín Cremaschi |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.15 | 0.77 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikael Ellertsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| Stefano Sabelli DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Vitinha FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Joi Nuredini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Nahuel Estévez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Gaetano Oristanio FWR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jacob Ondrejka FWL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sascha Britschgi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Benjamín Cremaschi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |