Parma Calcio 1913 v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 23 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 16
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.22 – -0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
22.2%
Draw
28.3%
Juventus win
49.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.96–1.80 | 0-1 11% | 52% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.78 xGJuventus 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 27' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.15 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 28' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Hainaut |
| 35' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 36' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Emanuele Valeri |
| 59' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás González |
| 65' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 68' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hernani | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 73' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 76' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás González |
| 78' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 83' |
Juventus |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Costa |
| 91' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Douglas Luiz |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Enrico Del Prato DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Giovanni Leoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Antoine Hainaut Sub | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.56 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Hernani Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Man Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Vogliacco DC | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randal Kolo Muani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Nicolás González AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Weston McKennie DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Francisco Conceição Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Kenan Yildiz Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Douglas Luiz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Timothy Weah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Costa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |