Parma Calcio 1913 v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 16
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
4 – 13
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 2.17
Goals − xG
+0.40 – -0.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
14.1%
Draw
22.3%
Juventus win
63.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.70–1.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.84–1.82 | 0-1 13% | 50% | 48% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.60 xGJuventus 4.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 5' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Weston McKennie |
| 5' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 14' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Goal | Francisco Conceição |
| 17' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 32' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 42' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 50' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.97 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Jonathan Christian David |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.80 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 63' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 63' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.95 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 75' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 79' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Sascha Britschgi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 82' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Gatti |
| 82' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 84' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enrico Del Prato |
| 92' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nesta Elphege |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Edoardo Corvi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Jacob Ondrejka AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gaetano Oristanio AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sascha Britschgi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Nesta Elphege Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Kephren Thuram DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 84 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.75 | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Weston McKennie AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| Bremer DC | 68 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Francisco Conceição AMR | 68 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.26 | 0.77 |
| Kenan Yildiz AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Filip Kostic Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Federico Gatti Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Juan Cabal Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |