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Parma Calcio 1913 v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

Parma Calcio 1913
3–1
1.27 – 2.42 xG
Lazio
Shots
12 – 23
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 15
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.60
Goals − xG
+1.73 – -1.42
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.02.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Dennis Man 5' — goalAnas Haj Mohamed 52' — goalValentín Castellanos 79' — goalEnrico Del Prato 90' — goal
Parma Calcio 1913 1.27 xGLazio 2.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dennis Man 5' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Rovella 6' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ange-Yoan Bonny 8' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Mattia Zaccagni 15' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Anas Haj Mohamed 19' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Rovella 21' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Enrico Del Prato 24' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Gustav Isaksen 26' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 26' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ange-Yoan Bonny 38' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Emanuele Valeri 38' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Gustav Isaksen 41' — Blocked Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Nicolo Rovella 45' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Luca Pellegrini 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matteo Cancellieri 49' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Gustav Isaksen 50' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mattia Zaccagni 50' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alessio Romagnoli 51' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, From Corner)Mario Gila 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Valentín Castellanos 51' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Anas Haj Mohamed 52' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Dennis Man 55' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Charpentier 58' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 60' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Simon Sohm 62' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Loum Tchaouna 64' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Loum Tchaouna 71' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alessio Romagnoli 75' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Loum Tchaouna 75' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Luca Pellegrini 79' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 79' — Goal (0.62 xG, Open Play)Loum Tchaouna 84' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Pedro 87' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Matteo Guendouzi 88' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Enrico Del Prato 90' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right Lazio attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Parma Calcio 1913 Dennis Man 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
6' Lazio Nicolo Rovella 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Valentín Castellanos
8' Parma Calcio 1913 Ange-Yoan Bonny 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Anas Haj Mohamed
15' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
19' Parma Calcio 1913 Anas Haj Mohamed 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dennis Man
21' Lazio Nicolo Rovella 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
24' Parma Calcio 1913 Enrico Del Prato 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
26' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nicolo Rovella
26' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.02 Open Play — Blocked Shot Gustav Isaksen
38' Parma Calcio 1913 Ange-Yoan Bonny 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Matteo Cancellieri
38' Parma Calcio 1913 Emanuele Valeri 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Ange-Yoan Bonny
41' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
45' Lazio Nicolo Rovella 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
46' Lazio Luca Pellegrini 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Valentín Castellanos
49' Parma Calcio 1913 Matteo Cancellieri 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dennis Man
50' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Mattia Zaccagni
50' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolo Rovella
51' Lazio Alessio Romagnoli 0.29 From Corner — Saved Shot Mario Gila
51' Lazio Mario Gila 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Valentín Castellanos
51' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Gustav Isaksen
52' Parma Calcio 1913 Anas Haj Mohamed 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gabriel Charpentier
55' Parma Calcio 1913 Dennis Man 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Charpentier
58' Parma Calcio 1913 Gabriel Charpentier 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dennis Man
60' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
62' Parma Calcio 1913 Simon Sohm 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Anas Haj Mohamed
64' Lazio Loum Tchaouna 0.09 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Valentín Castellanos
71' Lazio Loum Tchaouna 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Pedro
75' Lazio Alessio Romagnoli 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Luca Pellegrini
75' Lazio Loum Tchaouna 0.04 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Valentín Castellanos
79' Lazio Luca Pellegrini 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alessio Romagnoli
79' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.62 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
84' Lazio Loum Tchaouna 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Luca Pellegrini
87' Lazio Pedro 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Luca Pellegrini
88' Lazio Matteo Guendouzi 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Alessio Romagnoli
90' Parma Calcio 1913 Enrico Del Prato 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gabriel Charpentier

Players

Parma Calcio 1913

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dennis Man AMR 90 1 0 2 3 0.50 0.16 0.78
Enrico Del Prato DR 90 1 0 2 0 0.42 0.00 0.36
Simon Sohm DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.12
Emanuele Valeri DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.02
Botond Balogh DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Zion Suzuki GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Matteo Cancellieri AML 89 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.23
Giovanni Leoni DC 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anas Haj Mohamed AMC 77 1 0 2 2 0.13 0.12 0.25
Ange-Yoan Bonny FW 53 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.01 0.10
Mandela Keita DMC 53 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Gabriel Charpentier Sub 37 0 2 1 3 0.03 0.53 0.56
Nahuel Estévez Sub 37 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Drissa Camara Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antoine Hainaut Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adrian Benedyczak Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lazio

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Valentín Castellanos FW 90 1 0 4 5 0.78 0.21 0.77
Alessio Romagnoli DC 90 0 0 2 2 0.32 0.06 0.58
Mattia Zaccagni FWL 90 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.02 0.22
Nicolo Rovella MC 90 0 0 3 2 0.05 0.04 0.61
Matteo Guendouzi MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.59
Mario Gila DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.29 0.52
Luca Pellegrini DL 90 0 0 2 3 0.03 0.48 0.47
Ivan Provedel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manuel Lazzari DR 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Gustav Isaksen FWR 72 0 0 3 2 0.40 0.09 0.44
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC 53 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Pedro Sub 37 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.05 0.54
Loum Tchaouna Sub 18 0 0 4 0 0.61 0.00 0.47
Tijjani Noslin Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Adam Marusic Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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