Parma Calcio 1913 v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 7
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
3 – 4
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.30 – -0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
17.7%
Draw
27.0%
Napoli win
55.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.87–1.71 | 0-1 13% | 48% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.30 xGNapoli 0.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hernani |
| 9' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hernani | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 18' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessandro Circati |
| 19' |
Napoli |
Billy Gilmour | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hernani |
| 32' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Scott McTominay |
| 33' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 42' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 44' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 45' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Leoni |
| 48' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Alessandro Circati | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hernani |
| 70' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Botond Balogh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Enrico Del Prato MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Emanuele Valeri ML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hernani MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| Giovanni Leoni DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Antoine Hainaut Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Bernabé Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Løvik Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Zambo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Scott McTominay AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mathías Olivera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Romelu Lukaku FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Matteo Politano AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Giacomo Raspadori AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Billy Gilmour DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| David Neres Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philip Billing Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |