Parma Calcio 1913 v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 20
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
1 – 16
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.85 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
18.2%
Draw
27.5%
Napoli win
54.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLLDLWLLL last 10
scored 6
from 8.9 xG
conceded 16
from 19.5 xG
Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWLLWDWLD last 10
scored 17
from 20.9 xG
conceded 10
from 11.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.73–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.83–1.57 | 0-1 14% | 43% | 45% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.15 xGNapoli 1.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nesta Elphege |
| 5' |
 Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 18' |
Napoli |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 20' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathías Olivera |
| 43' |
Napoli |
Mathías Olivera | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 43' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 47' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Franck Zambo |
| 49' |
Napoli |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 50' |
Napoli |
Alessandro Buongiorno | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 52' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathías Olivera |
| 59' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rasmus Højlund |
| 64' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 74' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sam Beukema |
| 76' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Sørensen |
| 77' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 79' |
Napoli |
Giovane | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 81' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nahuel Estévez |
| 83' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 86' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Napoli |
Eljif Elmas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 90' |
Napoli |
Alisson Santos | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 92' |
Napoli |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Enrico Del Prato DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nesta Elphege FW | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Daniel Mikolajewski Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Mathías Olivera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.95 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.78 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.50 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Franck Zambo MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Juan Jesus DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Sam Beukema Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Alisson Santos Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Giovane Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Eljif Elmas Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 0.46 |