Parma Calcio 1913 v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.32 – -1.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
46.4%
Draw
27.7%
Pisa win
25.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWLLDLWLL last 10
scored 7
from 8.6 xG
conceded 17
from 20.9 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.33–1.14 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 1.32 xGPisa 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Pisa |
Isak Vural | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Filip Stojilkovic |
| 8' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mandela Keita | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Alessandro Circati | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 20' |
Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 27' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Pisa |
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Isak Vural |
| 31' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Niakhate Ndiaye | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Pisa |
Rosen Bozhinov | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 34' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 39' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 44' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mariano Troilo | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 44' |
Pisa |
Filip Stojilkovic | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 46' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriele Piccinini |
| 51' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Pellegrino |
| 58' |
Pisa |
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 66' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 76' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 81' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Nesta Elphege | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Oliver Sørensen |
| 84' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nesta Elphege |
| 86' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enrico Del Prato DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Nesta Elphege Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.64 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Moreo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| Rosen Bozhinov DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Filip Stojilkovic FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.57 | 0.94 |
| Mehdi Leris DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Isak Vural MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.13 | 0.70 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Idrissa Touré Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lorran Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |