Parma Calcio 1913 v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 16
On target
1 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.30
Goals − xG
-0.29 – -0.56
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Parma Calcio 1913 win
19.6%
Draw
25.3%
Roma win
55.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–2.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Parma Calcio 1913 0.29 xGRoma 1.56 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Paredes |
| 15' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 20' |
Roma |
Anass Salah-Eddine | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Gourna Douath |
| 24' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 26' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 32' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.17 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 41' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 46' |
Roma |
Leandro Paredes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anass Salah-Eddine |
| 46' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 50' |
Roma |
Anass Salah-Eddine | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pontus Almqvist |
| 56' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 56' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pontus Almqvist |
| 68' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 77' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 78' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Simon Sohm | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Ondrejka |
| 87' |
Roma |
Niccolò Pisilli | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 91' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Enrico Del Prato DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuele Valeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Alessandro Vogliacco DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Botond Balogh Sub | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pontus Almqvist Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Dennis Man FWR | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Giovanni Leoni DC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Drissa Camara Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Løvik Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ondrejka Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matìas Soulè Malvano FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.72 |
| Eldor Shomurodov FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Leandro Paredes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Anass Salah-Eddine DML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Victor Nelsson Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Angelino Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |