Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 29 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526

Serie A xG Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Parma Calcio 1913

2–1

1.44 – 0.66 xG

Torino

Shots

13 – 15

On target

2 – 4

Shots in box

6 – 8

xG per shot

0.11 – 0.04

Set-piece xG

1.14 – 0.09

Goals − xG

+0.55 – +0.34

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Parma Calcio 1913 win

37.8%

Draw

32.8%

Torino win

29.4%

383329

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLLLWLLD last 10 scored 7 from 7.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.2 xG

Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDDLWLDLLW last 10 scored 13 from 13.3 xG conceded 15 from 17.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	383329	1.09–0.93	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	442729	1.38–1.08	1-1 13%	44%	49%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Parma Calcio 1913 1.45 xGTorino 0.66 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Parma Calcio 1913 attacking right Torino attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
3'	Torino	Giovanni Simeone	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Nikola Vlasic
13'	Torino	Nikola Vlasic	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
16'	Torino	Cyril Ngonge	0.04	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
21'	Torino	Cyril Ngonge	0.04	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Valentino Lazaro
23'	Torino	Giovanni Simeone	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ardian Ismajli
28'	Torino	Giovanni Simeone	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Nikola Vlasic
30'	Parma Calcio 1913	Enrico Del Prato	0.03	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Emanuele Valeri
35'	Parma Calcio 1913	Mateo Pellegrino	0.76		Left Foot	Goal	—
39'	Parma Calcio 1913	Adrián Bernabé	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Mateo Pellegrino
39'	Parma Calcio 1913	Patrick Cutrone	0.01	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Emanuele Valeri
42'	Torino	Kristjan Asllani	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Niels Nkounkou
47'	Parma Calcio 1913	Enrico Del Prato	0.06	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Emanuele Valeri
49'	Torino	Cyril Ngonge	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Saúl Coco
50'	Torino	Cesare Casadei	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Cyril Ngonge
57'	Torino	Cesare Casadei	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Giovanni Simeone
58'	Parma Calcio 1913	Sascha Britschgi	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
60'	Torino	Nikola Vlasic	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Ardian Ismajli
62'	Parma Calcio 1913	Mandela Keita	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mateo Pellegrino
65'	Torino	Kristjan Asllani	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Cesare Casadei
68'	Parma Calcio 1913	Adrián Bernabé	0.05	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
68'	Parma Calcio 1913	Adrián Bernabé	0.01	Set Piece	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
71'	Parma Calcio 1913	Mateo Pellegrino	0.23	From Corner	—	Goal	Emanuele Valeri
74'	Parma Calcio 1913	Mateo Pellegrino	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Adrián Bernabé
76'	Parma Calcio 1913	Mateo Pellegrino	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Emanuele Valeri
81'	Torino	Saúl Coco	0.04	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	Cyril Ngonge
84'	Torino	Guillermo Maripán	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
86'	Torino	Guillermo Maripán	0.02	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Saúl Coco
88'	Parma Calcio 1913	Nahuel Estévez	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Adrian Benedyczak

Players

Torino

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Giovanni Simeone FW	90	0	0	3	1	0.24	0.02	0.26
Nikola Vlasic FWL	90	0	0	2	2	0.15	0.18	0.36
Cyril Ngonge FWR	90	1	0	3	2	0.11	0.08	0.27
Cesare Casadei MC	90	0	0	2	1	0.06	0.01	0.28
Saúl Coco DC	90	0	1	1	2	0.04	0.05	0.16
Guillermo Maripán DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.04	0.00	0.15
Franco Israel GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Valentino Lazaro DMR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.14
Ardian Ismajli DC	80	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.13	0.27
Kristjan Asllani MC	74	0	0	2	0	0.03	0.00	0.24
Niels Nkounkou DML	73	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.03
Cristiano Biraghi Sub	17	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Adrien Tameze Sub	16	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Che Adams Sub	10	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Alieu Njie Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02