PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 November 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627
Eredivisie
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 1-2 7.8%
- 2-2 6.5%
- 2-0 6.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% | Under 2.5 | 39.0% |
| BTTS yes | 63.9% | BTTS no | 36.1% |
| PEC Zwolle 1+ | 81.3% | PEC Zwolle 2+ | 50.0% |
| ADO Den Haag 1+ | 77.1% | ADO Den Haag 2+ | 43.3% |
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out PEC Zwolle.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.89).
Why the model thinks this
The price
PEC Zwolle have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for ADO Den Haag and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for PEC Zwolle and 1.47 for ADO Den Haag.
Why PEC Zwolle
Nothing in the data singles out PEC Zwolle.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.68 to 1.47. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why ADO Den Haag can win
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger rating, 1610 Elo against 1435.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for PEC Zwolle, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for ADO Den Haag, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
PEC Zwolle: 40% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 20.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. ADO Den Haag: 49% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
PEC Zwolle are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 72/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.93–1.25 | 1-1 11% | 62% | 62% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.