PEC Zwolle v Excelsior — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

PEC Zwolle

20:00 UTC

Excelsior

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,185h before kick-off

PEC Zwolle win

26.5%

model 28.1%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.9%

Excelsior win

47.0%

model 46.0%

272647

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.0%
1-2 9.4%
2-1 7.1%
0-2 7.1%
0-1 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.8%	Under 2.5	41.2%
BTTS yes	61.5%	BTTS no	38.5%
PEC Zwolle 1+	73.3%	PEC Zwolle 2+	38.0%
Excelsior 1+	82.3%	Excelsior 2+	51.7%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.73. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Excelsior or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 56%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Excelsior over 0.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 73%

82.5% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Excelsior carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1436.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Excelsior have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for PEC Zwolle and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.32 for PEC Zwolle and 1.73 for Excelsior.

Why PEC Zwolle

Nothing in the data singles out PEC Zwolle.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Excelsior can win

Excelsior carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1436. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for PEC Zwolle, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Excelsior, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

PEC Zwolle: 40% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 20.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Excelsior: 43% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Excelsior are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	282646	1.32–1.73	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	312742	1.36–1.60	1-1 13%	57%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win	41.8%	42.9%	30.1%	1.42×	2.33
PEC Zwolle to win	31.4%	30.4%	44.4%	0.68×	3.29
Draw	26.8%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior & both teams score	22.6%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.4%	21.8%	22.2%	0.98×	4.59
Excelsior & not both score	19.2%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.56
PEC Zwolle & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	21.2%	0.85×	5.56
PEC Zwolle & not both score	13.8%	13.3%	23.4%	0.57×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.4%	8.3%	3.5%	2.38×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior & over 1.5	34.7%	30.8%	26.2%	1.18×	3.25
Excelsior & over 2.5	28.1%	26.1%	20.4%	1.28×	3.84
Excelsior & under 3.5	26.2%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
PEC Zwolle & over 1.5	25.6%	26.1%	36.2%	0.72×	3.84
PEC Zwolle & over 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	28.9%	0.75×	4.63
PEC Zwolle & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	27.5%	0.78×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.4%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	18.9%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.9%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Excelsior & over 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	10.4%	1.74×	5.56
Excelsior & under 2.5	13.6%	12.8%	9.9%	1.30×	7.79
PEC Zwolle & under 2.5	10.6%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
PEC Zwolle & over 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	17.0%	0.75×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	3.5%	2.26×	12.63
Excelsior & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	4.1%	1.93×	12.63
PEC Zwolle & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	8.4%	0.95×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (1UP)	59.5%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
PEC Zwolle (1UP)	50.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2UP)	41.8%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
PEC Zwolle (2UP)	31.4%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win 2nd half	37.9%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
2nd half drawn	34.3%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
PEC Zwolle to win 2nd half	27.9%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Excelsior over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.7%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Excelsior under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.3%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Excelsior over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	21.2%	—	—	4.71

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
PEC Zwolle over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.0%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
PEC Zwolle under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.0%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
PEC Zwolle over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	17.6%	—	—	5.70

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (+2.5)	94.8%	92.1%	86.8%	1.06×	1.09
Excelsior (+1.5)	85.4%	88.4%	74.7%	1.18×	1.13
Excelsior (+0.5)	68.6%	68.7%	55.6%	1.24×	1.46
PEC Zwolle (+0.5)	58.2%	57.0%	69.9%	0.82×	1.75
Excelsior (-0.5)	41.8%	43.0%	30.1%	1.43×	2.33
PEC Zwolle (-0.5)	31.4%	31.3%	44.4%	0.70×	3.19
PEC Zwolle (-1.5)	14.6%	11.6%	25.3%	0.46×	8.66
PEC Zwolle (-2.5)	5.2%	7.9%	13.2%	0.59×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede	74.4%	76.8%	83.6%	0.92×	1.30
Excelsior clean sheet	25.6%	23.2%	16.4%	1.41×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior clean sheet in 1st half	55.6%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Excelsior to concede in 1st half	44.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to concede in 2nd half	54.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Excelsior clean sheet in 2nd half	46.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior over 2.5 corners	80.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Excelsior under 6.5 corners	75.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Excelsior over 3.5 corners	66.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Excelsior under 5.5 corners	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Excelsior over 4.5 corners	50.9%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Excelsior under 4.5 corners	49.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Excelsior over 5.5 corners	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Excelsior under 3.5 corners	33.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Excelsior over 6.5 corners	25.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Excelsior under 2.5 corners	19.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 3.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Excelsior over 0.5 goals	79.8%	76.3%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
Excelsior under 2.5 goals	78.4%	76.3%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
Excelsior under 1.5 goals	52.6%	53.5%	58.1%	0.92×	1.87
Excelsior over 1.5 goals	47.4%	46.5%	41.9%	1.11×	2.15
Excelsior over 2.5 goals	21.6%	23.7%	15.1%	1.58×	4.21
Excelsior under 0.5 goals	20.2%	23.7%	26.8%	0.89×	4.22
Excelsior over 3.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	5.6%	1.36×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior under 1.5 in 1st half	86.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Excelsior under 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Excelsior over 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Excelsior over 1.5 in 1st half	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.19

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior scores more in 2nd half	41.8%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Excelsior scores equally in both	34.7%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
Excelsior scores more in 1st half	23.6%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle (away no bet)	54.0%	51.7%	63.5%	0.81×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	46.0%	48.3%	36.5%	1.32×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior even goals	52.0%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
Excelsior odd goals	48.0%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.0%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.0%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.8%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Excelsior to score 2+ in a row	37.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
PEC Zwolle to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Excelsior to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
PEC Zwolle to score 3+ in a row	8.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.84

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Excelsior corners (+2.5)	81.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
PEC Zwolle corners (+3.5)	79.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Excelsior corners (+1.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
PEC Zwolle corners (+2.5)	70.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
PEC Zwolle corners (+1.5)	60.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Excelsior corners (-1.5)	39.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Excelsior corners (-2.5)	29.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
PEC Zwolle corners (-1.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Excelsior corners (-3.5)	20.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
PEC Zwolle corners (-2.5)	18.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
PEC Zwolle corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.5%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	24.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	35.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.5%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
1-2	9.0%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.51
0-1	7.0%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.51
0-2	6.6%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.51
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.51
1-0	5.8%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.29
2-0	4.8%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.29
0-3	3.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-1	3.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.32
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32
Any other score	3.6%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (2nd half DNB)	57.6%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
PEC Zwolle (2nd half DNB)	42.4%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior leading at HT (DNB)	52.9%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
PEC Zwolle leading at HT (DNB)	47.1%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle or Excelsior (12)	73.2%	72.1%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Excelsior or draw (X2)	68.6%	69.6%	55.6%	1.25×	1.44
PEC Zwolle or draw (1X)	58.2%	57.1%	69.9%	0.82×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw at HT	72.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
PEC Zwolle or draw at HT	69.3%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
PEC Zwolle or Excelsior at HT	58.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw (1UP)	68.6%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
PEC Zwolle or draw (1UP)	58.2%	63.1%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior or draw in 2nd half	72.1%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
PEC Zwolle or Excelsior in 2nd half	65.7%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
PEC Zwolle or draw in 2nd half	62.1%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (DNB)	57.1%	58.1%	40.4%	1.44×	1.72
PEC Zwolle (DNB)	43.0%	41.9%	59.6%	0.70×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score first	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
PEC Zwolle to score first	43.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	6.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.6%	56.6%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.4%	43.4%	39.7%	1.09×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.1%	44.3%	48.7%	0.91×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	30.7%	34.5%	28.8%	1.20×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	12.5%	12.4%	11.7%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.2%	82.6%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.8%	17.4%	19.6%	0.89×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.3%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.1%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.8%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Both score 1st half only	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	7.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.8%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.2%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	41.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	47.2%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
4-6 goals	31.3%	30.7%	33.8%	0.91×	3.26
0-1 goals	19.3%	20.2%	15.7%	1.29×	4.94
7+ goals	3.2%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.19

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score exactly 1	32.3%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
Excelsior to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.4%	26.9%	1.02×	3.66
Excelsior to score 3+	21.6%	22.3%	15.1%	1.48×	4.49
Excelsior to score exactly 0	20.2%	22.3%	26.8%	0.83×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle to score exactly 1	34.9%	32.6%	33.2%	0.98×	3.07
PEC Zwolle to score exactly 0	25.6%	26.5%	16.4%	1.61×	3.77
PEC Zwolle to score exactly 2	23.8%	23.3%	26.9%	0.87×	4.29
PEC Zwolle to score 3+	15.8%	18.8%	23.7%	0.79×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Excelsior leading at HT	30.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
PEC Zwolle leading at HT	27.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior -1: 1	58.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Excelsior -1: 2	21.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Excelsior -1: X	20.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:1)	68.6%	65.3%	55.6%	1.17×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	16.9%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61
PEC Zwolle (0:1)	14.6%	13.7%	25.3%	0.54×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:2)	85.4%	87.1%	74.7%	1.16×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.4%	7.7%	12.2%	0.63×	13.02
PEC Zwolle (0:2)	5.2%	7.7%	13.2%	0.58×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:3)	94.8%	92.7%	86.8%	1.07×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	7.8%	0.31×	42.05
PEC Zwolle (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	81.98
PEC Zwolle (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	82.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle (1:0)	58.2%	58.4%	69.9%	0.84×	1.71
Excelsior (1:0)	21.8%	21.7%	15.5%	1.40×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.0%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle (2:0)	78.2%	80.5%	84.5%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.9%	10.3%	8.8%	1.17×	9.72
Excelsior (2:0)	8.9%	6.4%	6.8%	0.93×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.3%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle to concede	79.8%	76.1%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
PEC Zwolle clean sheet	20.2%	23.9%	26.8%	0.89×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle clean sheet in 1st half	52.8%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
PEC Zwolle to concede in 1st half	47.2%	44.3%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle to concede in 2nd half	61.7%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
PEC Zwolle clean sheet in 2nd half	38.3%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle under 6.5 corners	82.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
PEC Zwolle over 2.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
PEC Zwolle under 5.5 corners	72.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
PEC Zwolle under 4.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
PEC Zwolle over 3.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
PEC Zwolle under 3.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
PEC Zwolle over 4.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
PEC Zwolle over 5.5 corners	27.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
PEC Zwolle under 2.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
PEC Zwolle over 6.5 corners	17.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle under 3.5 goals	95.0%	96.4%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
PEC Zwolle under 2.5 goals	84.2%	82.2%	76.3%	1.08×	1.22
PEC Zwolle over 0.5 goals	74.4%	74.3%	83.6%	0.89×	1.35
PEC Zwolle under 1.5 goals	60.4%	63.6%	49.5%	1.29×	1.57
PEC Zwolle over 1.5 goals	39.6%	36.4%	50.5%	0.72×	2.75
PEC Zwolle under 0.5 goals	25.6%	25.7%	16.4%	1.57×	3.89
PEC Zwolle over 2.5 goals	15.8%	17.8%	23.7%	0.75×	5.62
PEC Zwolle over 3.5 goals	5.0%	3.6%	10.8%	0.34×	27.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle under 1.5 in 1st half	88.3%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
PEC Zwolle under 0.5 in 1st half	55.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
PEC Zwolle over 0.5 in 1st half	44.4%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
PEC Zwolle over 1.5 in 1st half	11.7%	9.7%	—	—	10.29

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle scores equally in both	38.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
PEC Zwolle scores more in 2nd half	36.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
PEC Zwolle scores more in 1st half	24.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior (home no bet)	60.9%	60.0%	54.1%	1.11×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.1%	40.0%	45.9%	0.87×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle even goals	53.3%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
PEC Zwolle odd goals	46.7%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.6%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
HT 0-1	18.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.36
HT 1-0	17.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	11.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-0	5.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	41.98
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior at HT / Excelsior at FT	23.5%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
PEC Zwolle at HT / PEC Zwolle at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Excelsior at FT	15.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / PEC Zwolle at FT	11.0%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
PEC Zwolle at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Excelsior at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
PEC Zwolle at HT / Excelsior at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Excelsior at HT / PEC Zwolle at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to score last	50.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
PEC Zwolle to score last	43.0%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.47

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Excelsior to lead by 1 at any time	59.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
PEC Zwolle to lead by 1 at any time	50.7%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.7%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Excelsior to lead by 2 at any time	28.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
PEC Zwolle to lead by 2 at any time	21.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.3%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Excelsior to lead by 3 at any time	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
PEC Zwolle to lead by 3 at any time	7.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior most corners	51.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
PEC Zwolle most corners	37.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.6%	78.7%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.8%	78.7%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.7%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.2%	59.1%	58.9%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	53.7%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.8%	48.5%	50.7%	0.96×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.0%	39.2%	39.0%	1.01×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.8%	39.2%	37.0%	1.06×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.3%	35.2%	33.8%	1.04×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.4%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.7%	14.8%	16.9%	0.88×	6.75
7+ goals	3.2%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.08

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior never behind	42.9%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
PEC Zwolle never behind	34.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.4%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.6%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.2%	82.3%	79.1%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.8%	82.3%	84.3%	0.98×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	65.6%	66.3%	62.3%	1.06×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	59.7%	0.98×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	40.3%	1.03×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.4%	33.7%	37.7%	0.89×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	19.3%	17.7%	15.7%	1.13×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	17.8%	17.7%	20.9%	0.85×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	3.5%	2.21×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.7%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.1%	92.4%	89.7%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.6%	75.9%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.7%	72.4%	79.2%	0.91×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.6%	55.8%	51.7%	1.08×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.4%	44.2%	48.3%	0.92×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.3%	27.6%	20.8%	1.33×	3.63
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.4%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.9%	7.6%	10.3%	0.74×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.3%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.56

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.4%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.4%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle not to score in both halves	76.0%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Excelsior not to score in both halves	70.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Excelsior to score in both halves	29.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
PEC Zwolle to score in both halves	24.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.6%	60.3%	60.3%	1.00×	1.66
Only Excelsior scores	19.2%	16.0%	13.1%	1.22×	6.24
Only PEC Zwolle scores	13.8%	11.0%	23.4%	0.47×	9.06
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.1%	3.5%	2.03×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.9%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.6%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.8%	12.1%	12.3%	0.98×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	9.8%	7.6%	11.9%	0.64×	13.13
6 or more goals	8.0%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.6%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.6%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	16.5%	—	—	6.08

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle not to win both halves	92.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Excelsior not to win both halves	88.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Excelsior to win both halves	11.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
PEC Zwolle to win both halves	7.8%	5.9%	—	—	16.96

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Excelsior to win either half	56.8%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
PEC Zwolle to win neither half	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
PEC Zwolle to win either half	47.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Excelsior to win neither half	43.2%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
PEC Zwolle not to win to nil	86.2%	88.1%	76.6%	1.15×	1.14
Excelsior not to win to nil	80.9%	83.1%	86.9%	0.96×	1.20
Excelsior to win to nil	19.2%	16.9%	13.1%	1.29×	5.91
PEC Zwolle to win to nil	13.8%	11.9%	23.4%	0.51×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.8%	27.9%	25.6%	1.09×	3.59
Excelsior by 1	20.0%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.86
PEC Zwolle by 1	16.9%	17.0%	19.3%	0.88×	5.87
Excelsior by 2	12.9%	11.8%	8.8%	1.33×	8.51
PEC Zwolle by 2	9.4%	7.2%	12.2%	0.59×	13.90
Excelsior by 3+	8.9%	7.2%	6.8%	1.05×	13.90
PEC Zwolle by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	13.2%	0.54×	13.92