Peñarol v Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · URU-Primera Division · 2627

URU-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Peñarol

19:30 UTC

Albion

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 132h before kick-off

Peñarol win

67.5%

model 65.6%

Draw

22.1%

model 20.3%

Albion win

10.5%

model 14.1%

672210

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (159 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.9%
2-0 12.9%
2-1 9.5%
1-1 9.5%
3-0 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.6%	Under 2.5	50.4%
BTTS yes	44.2%	BTTS no	55.8%
Peñarol 1+	85.3%	Peñarol 2+	57.1%
Albion 1+	52.3%	Albion 2+	17.0%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

19/100

Data quality

40/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Peñarol (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 41%

68.9% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 1052 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Albion (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 93%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 268 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Peñarol carry the stronger rating, 1620 Elo against 1456.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
They have had 14 days' rest to Albion's 6.

Risk factors

Data quality is 40/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0036 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Peñarol have an estimated 67.5% win probability, against 22.1% for the draw and 10.5% for Albion. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.92 for Peñarol and 0.74 for Albion.

Why Peñarol

Peñarol carry the stronger rating, 1620 Elo against 1456. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. They have had 14 days' rest to Albion's 6.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Albion can win

Nothing in the data singles out Albion.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Peñarol, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Albion, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Peñarol: 43% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Albion: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Peñarol are the model's most likely outcome at 67.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.9%. Confidence 19/100, data quality 40/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	662014	1.92–0.74	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	642016	1.94–0.83	1-0 13%	52%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to win	65.6%	67.5%	40.5%	1.67×	1.48
Draw	20.3%	22.1%	27.6%	0.80×	4.53
Albion to win	14.1%	10.5%	32.1%	0.33×	9.55

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol & not both score	41.1%	45.7%	22.7%	2.01×	2.19
Peñarol & both teams score	24.5%	22.6%	18.0%	1.26×	4.42
Draw & both teams score	13.7%	12.2%	17.6%	0.69×	8.22
Albion & not both score	8.1%	7.3%	18.4%	0.40×	13.66
Draw & not both score	6.6%	7.3%	10.2%	0.72×	13.69
Albion & both teams score	6.0%	7.3%	13.9%	0.53×	13.70

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol & over 1.5	51.8%	49.0%	29.4%	1.67×	2.04
Peñarol & under 3.5	44.5%	44.0%	31.3%	1.41×	2.27
Peñarol & over 2.5	38.9%	37.6%	22.5%	1.67×	2.66
Peñarol & under 2.5	26.8%	25.5%	18.2%	1.40×	3.92
Peñarol & over 3.5	21.1%	21.5%	9.4%	2.29×	4.65
Draw & under 2.5	16.1%	17.6%	22.7%	0.77×	5.70
Draw & under 3.5	16.1%	17.6%	22.7%	0.77×	5.70
Peñarol & under 1.5	13.9%	12.7%	11.4%	1.12×	7.86
Draw & over 1.5	13.7%	12.7%	17.6%	0.72×	7.86
Albion & under 3.5	11.7%	12.7%	25.8%	0.49×	7.87
Albion & over 1.5	8.5%	7.5%	19.8%	0.38×	13.40
Albion & under 2.5	7.5%	7.5%	16.6%	0.45×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	6.6%	7.5%	10.2%	0.73×	13.41
Albion & over 2.5	6.6%	7.5%	15.7%	0.48×	13.41
Albion & under 1.5	5.6%	7.5%	12.5%	0.60×	13.42
Draw & over 2.5	4.1%	4.6%	5.1%	0.90×	21.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.1%	4.6%	5.1%	0.90×	21.93
Albion & over 3.5	2.4%	4.5%	6.5%	0.70×	22.01

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (1UP)	75.3%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Albion (1UP)	29.2%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (2UP)	65.6%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Albion (2UP)	14.1%	14.2%	—	—	7.03

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to win 2nd half	51.9%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
2nd half drawn	33.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
Albion to win 2nd half	15.1%	20.0%	—	—	5.01

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (+0.5)	85.9%	88.9%	67.9%	1.31×	1.12
Albion (+2.5)	80.5%	82.2%	92.6%	0.89×	1.22
Peñarol (-0.5)	65.6%	68.9%	40.5%	1.70×	1.45
Albion (+1.5)	60.3%	64.0%	82.2%	0.78×	1.56
Peñarol (-1.5)	39.7%	36.0%	17.8%	2.02×	2.78
Albion (+0.5)	34.4%	31.1%	59.5%	0.52×	3.21
Peñarol (-2.5)	19.5%	17.8%	7.4%	2.39×	5.63
Albion (-0.5)	14.1%	11.1%	32.1%	0.34×	9.04

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to concede	85.3%	89.6%	71.6%	1.25×	1.12
Albion clean sheet	14.7%	10.4%	28.4%	0.37×	9.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to concede in 1st half	56.1%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Albion clean sheet in 1st half	43.9%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion under 3.5 goals	99.3%	97.4%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Albion under 2.5 goals	96.1%	97.3%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Albion under 1.5 goals	83.0%	82.2%	72.6%	1.13×	1.22
Albion over 0.5 goals	52.3%	51.9%	67.3%	0.77×	1.93
Albion under 0.5 goals	47.7%	48.1%	32.7%	1.47×	2.08
Albion over 1.5 goals	17.0%	17.8%	27.4%	0.65×	5.63
Albion over 2.5 goals	3.9%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	37.10
Albion over 3.5 goals	0.7%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	37.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion under 1.5 in 1st half	96.4%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Albion under 0.5 in 1st half	74.4%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Albion over 0.5 in 1st half	25.6%	30.8%	—	—	3.25
Albion over 1.5 in 1st half	3.6%	3.8%	—	—	26.04

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (away no bet)	76.4%	78.6%	59.5%	1.32×	1.27
Draw (away no bet)	23.6%	21.4%	40.5%	0.53×	4.68

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion even goals	61.4%	64.4%	54.4%	1.18×	1.55
Albion odd goals	38.6%	35.6%	45.6%	0.78×	2.81

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	86.0%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.0%	13.6%	—	—	7.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	62.0%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.96

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.4%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Peñarol to score 2+ in a row	51.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Peñarol to score 3+ in a row	23.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Albion to score 2+ in a row	11.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Albion to score 3+ in a row	1.8%	3.3%	—	—	29.94

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.9%	11.6%	11.4%	1.02×	8.62
2-0	12.9%	11.6%	7.0%	1.65×	8.63
1-1	9.5%	7.3%	12.7%	0.57×	13.74
2-1	9.5%	7.3%	9.8%	0.74×	13.74
3-0	8.2%	7.3%	3.7%	1.96×	13.74
0-0	6.6%	7.3%	10.2%	0.71×	13.75
3-1	6.1%	7.3%	3.1%	2.32×	13.75
0-1	5.6%	7.3%	12.5%	0.58×	13.75
1-2	3.7%	1.8%	8.8%	0.20×	55.42
4-0	3.9%	1.8%	1.2%	1.54×	55.41
Any other score	4.6%	1.8%	2.0%	0.92×	55.39
2-2	3.5%	1.8%	4.5%	0.40×	55.42
4-1	2.9%	1.8%	1.8%	1.02×	55.44
0-2	1.9%	1.8%	4.3%	0.42×	55.46
3-2	2.3%	1.8%	2.2%	0.84×	55.45
0-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.8%	2.30×	55.50
0-4	0.1%	1.8%	1.2%	1.53×	55.51
1-3	0.9%	1.8%	2.3%	0.77×	55.49
1-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.4%	4.60×	55.50
2-3	0.9%	1.8%	1.8%	1.02×	55.49
2-4	0.2%	1.8%	1.0%	1.84×	55.50
3-3	0.6%	1.8%	0.8%	2.30×	55.49
3-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.2%	9.21×	55.51
4-2	1.1%	1.8%	0.8%	2.30×	55.48
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.2%	9.21×	55.50
4-4	0.0%	1.8%	0.2%	9.21×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol leading at HT (DNB)	78.6%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Albion leading at HT (DNB)	21.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol or draw (1X)	85.9%	89.5%	67.9%	1.32×	1.12
Peñarol or Albion (12)	79.7%	77.9%	72.4%	1.08×	1.28
Albion or draw (X2)	34.4%	32.5%	59.5%	0.55×	3.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol or draw at HT	87.3%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Peñarol or Albion at HT	59.1%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Albion or draw at HT	53.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol or draw (1UP)	85.9%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Albion or draw (1UP)	34.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol or draw in 2nd half	84.9%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Peñarol or Albion in 2nd half	67.0%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Albion or draw in 2nd half	48.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.9%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Neither half drawn	39.1%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (DNB)	82.3%	81.4%	55.8%	1.46×	1.23
Albion (DNB)	17.7%	18.6%	44.2%	0.42×	5.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to score first	67.4%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Albion to score first	26.0%	24.6%	—	—	4.07
No goal scored	6.6%	6.2%	—	—	16.04

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	55.8%	56.7%	50.9%	1.11×	1.77
Both teams to score	44.2%	43.3%	49.1%	0.88×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.9%	42.2%	44.6%	0.95×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	34.7%	34.5%	36.6%	0.94×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	14.9%	11.8%	6.5%	1.82×	8.50
Both score & under 2.5	9.5%	8.7%	12.7%	0.69×	11.43

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.3%	88.8%	89.6%	0.99×	1.13
Both teams to score 2+	9.7%	11.2%	10.4%	1.08×	8.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.3%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.4%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	20.3%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
Both score 1st half only	10.9%	11.5%	—	—	8.67
Both score in both halves	3.4%	4.8%	—	—	20.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.7%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.3%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	52.7%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
A half without a goal	47.3%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	45.9%	46.0%	1.00×	2.18
0-1 goals	26.1%	27.7%	33.7%	0.82×	3.62
4-6 goals	25.7%	27.6%	19.8%	1.40×	3.62
7+ goals	1.9%	1.9%	1.0%	1.98×	51.57

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion to score exactly 0	47.7%	44.8%	32.7%	1.37×	2.23
Albion to score exactly 1	35.3%	34.5%	40.1%	0.86×	2.90
Albion to score exactly 2	13.1%	13.4%	20.0%	0.67×	7.45
Albion to score 3+	3.9%	4.2%	7.6%	0.55×	24.03

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to score 3+	30.1%	30.5%	13.5%	2.26×	3.28
Peñarol to score exactly 1	28.2%	27.1%	35.0%	0.77×	3.69
Peñarol to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.1%	23.5%	1.15×	3.70
Peñarol to score exactly 0	14.7%	13.5%	28.4%	0.48×	7.38

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol leading at HT	46.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Draw at HT	40.9%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
Albion leading at HT	12.7%	11.6%	—	—	8.59

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol -1: 1	39.7%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Peñarol -1: 2	34.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Peñarol -1: X	26.0%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (0:1)	34.4%	34.8%	59.5%	0.58×	2.88
Peñarol (0:1)	39.7%	30.8%	17.8%	1.73×	3.25
Draw (0:1)	26.0%	26.2%	22.9%	1.15×	3.81

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (0:2)	60.3%	69.1%	82.2%	0.84×	1.45
Draw (0:2)	20.2%	21.4%	10.6%	2.03×	4.67
Peñarol (0:2)	19.5%	16.4%	7.4%	2.21×	6.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (0:3)	80.5%	83.2%	92.6%	0.90×	1.20
Draw (0:3)	11.6%	12.4%	5.5%	2.26×	8.07
Peñarol (0:3)	7.9%	6.9%	2.2%	3.22×	14.43

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion (0:4)	92.1%	94.0%	97.8%	0.96×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.2%	7.0%	1.8%	3.96×	14.33
Peñarol (0:4)	2.7%	1.3%	0.6%	2.13×	79.97

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (1:0)	85.9%	88.2%	67.9%	1.30×	1.13
Draw (1:0)	10.3%	11.7%	22.7%	0.52×	8.55
Albion (1:0)	3.8%	3.0%	9.6%	0.31×	33.15

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol (2:0)	96.2%	97.3%	90.4%	1.08×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.0%	2.7%	7.2%	0.37×	37.07
Albion (2:0)	0.8%	2.7%	2.5%	1.05×	37.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.2%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Halves equal	24.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to concede	52.3%	53.2%	67.3%	0.79×	1.88
Peñarol clean sheet	47.7%	46.8%	32.7%	1.43×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol clean sheet in 1st half	74.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Peñarol to concede in 1st half	25.6%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol under 3.5 goals	87.2%	87.8%	95.5%	0.92×	1.14
Peñarol over 0.5 goals	85.3%	87.7%	71.6%	1.22×	1.14
Peñarol under 2.5 goals	69.9%	68.9%	86.5%	0.80×	1.45
Peñarol over 1.5 goals	57.1%	55.7%	36.8%	1.51×	1.80
Peñarol under 1.5 goals	42.9%	44.3%	63.2%	0.70×	2.26
Peñarol over 2.5 goals	30.1%	31.1%	13.5%	2.31×	3.21
Peñarol under 0.5 goals	14.7%	12.3%	28.4%	0.43×	8.15
Peñarol over 3.5 goals	12.8%	12.2%	4.5%	2.71×	8.19

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol under 1.5 in 1st half	80.0%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Peñarol over 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Peñarol under 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
Peñarol over 1.5 in 1st half	20.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.07

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.0%	54.5%	46.2%	1.18×	1.84
Albion (home no bet)	41.0%	45.5%	53.8%	0.85×	2.20

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol even goals	51.1%	50.2%	55.2%	0.91×	1.99
Peñarol odd goals	48.9%	49.8%	44.8%	1.11×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.5%	30.5%	—	—	3.28
HT 1-0	27.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
HT 2-0	11.1%	11.2%	—	—	8.95
HT 0-1	9.7%	7.7%	—	—	12.97
HT 1-1	7.9%	7.7%	—	—	12.99
Any other HT score	5.4%	7.7%	—	—	13.03
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.81
HT 0-2	1.4%	2.5%	—	—	39.92
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	39.93
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.5%	—	—	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol at HT / Peñarol at FT	41.6%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Draw at HT / Peñarol at FT	21.5%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Albion at HT / Albion at FT	6.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.23
Draw at HT / Albion at FT	6.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.24
Peñarol at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.35
Albion at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.4%	—	—	29.37
Albion at HT / Peñarol at FT	2.5%	3.4%	—	—	29.41
Peñarol at HT / Albion at FT	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.47

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to score last	67.3%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Albion to score last	26.1%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
No goal scored	6.6%	6.2%	—	—	16.04

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.4%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Peñarol to lead by 1 at any time	75.3%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Peñarol to lead by 2 at any time	45.1%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Albion to lead by 1 at any time	29.2%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.1%	19.8%	—	—	5.05
Peñarol to lead by 3 at any time	21.8%	19.8%	—	—	5.06
Albion to lead by 2 at any time	6.7%	7.0%	—	—	14.22
Albion to lead by 3 at any time	1.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.82

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.9%	86.3%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.3%	81.5%	80.8%	1.01×	1.23
2-6 goals	72.0%	73.6%	65.6%	1.12×	1.36
2-5 goals	68.6%	68.3%	62.8%	1.09×	1.46
1-3 goals	65.8%	68.3%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.9%	62.3%	57.3%	1.09×	1.61
3-6 goals	47.7%	48.0%	42.1%	1.14×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.0%	46.0%	1.04×	2.08
3-5 goals	44.3%	43.6%	39.3%	1.11×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.8%	43.6%	47.2%	0.93×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.5%	38.8%	33.9%	1.15×	2.58
4-6 goals	25.7%	30.4%	19.8%	1.54×	3.29
4-5 goals	22.3%	24.7%	17.0%	1.45×	4.05
5-6 goals	11.2%	13.4%	8.4%	1.60×	7.45
7+ goals	1.9%	2.0%	1.0%	2.06×	49.56

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol never behind	64.2%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Albion never behind	18.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.1%	47.8%	1.05×	1.99
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.9%	52.3%	0.95×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.7%	93.0%	96.3%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.4%	93.0%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.9%	88.7%	90.8%	0.98×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	73.9%	72.5%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	79.5%	0.91×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.4%	53.5%	57.1%	0.94×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	49.6%	46.5%	42.9%	1.09×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	27.6%	27.6%	20.5%	1.34×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	26.1%	27.6%	33.7%	0.82×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.1%	11.3%	9.2%	1.22×	8.89
Under 0.5 goals	6.6%	7.0%	10.2%	0.69×	14.20
Over 5.5 goals	5.3%	7.0%	3.7%	1.89×	14.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.2%	92.8%	96.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.7%	80.8%	89.6%	0.90×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	65.5%	68.0%	56.0%	1.21×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.6%	62.5%	73.6%	0.85×	1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.4%	37.5%	26.4%	1.42×	2.67
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.5%	32.0%	44.0%	0.73×	3.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.3%	19.2%	10.4%	1.85×	5.21
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.8%	7.2%	3.9%	1.84×	13.82
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	1.0%	2.75×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.6%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.2%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.8%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.4%	11.9%	—	—	8.44

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.0%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	80.3%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.3%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	19.7%	—	—	5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.08

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion not to score in both halves	90.8%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Peñarol not to score in both halves	62.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Peñarol to score in both halves	37.3%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Albion to score in both halves	9.2%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	44.2%	45.7%	49.1%	0.93×	2.19
Only Peñarol scores	41.1%	45.5%	22.7%	2.00×	2.20
Only Albion scores	8.1%	6.7%	18.4%	0.36×	15.00
Neither team scores	6.6%	6.6%	10.2%	0.65×	15.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	21.5%	22.5%	0.96×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	19.5%	18.6%	23.7%	0.79×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	14.6%	12.4%	11.5%	1.07×	8.07
Exactly 5 goals	7.7%	7.6%	5.7%	1.34×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.6%	7.6%	10.2%	0.75×	13.15
6 or more goals	5.3%	7.6%	3.7%	2.04×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	21.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion not to win both halves	98.1%	96.7%	—	—	1.03
Peñarol not to win both halves	76.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Peñarol to win both halves	24.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.97
Albion to win both halves	1.9%	3.3%	—	—	30.41

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol to win either half	74.3%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Albion to win neither half	74.1%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Albion to win either half	25.9%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
Peñarol to win neither half	25.7%	27.6%	—	—	3.63

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Albion not to win to nil	91.9%	92.3%	81.6%	1.13×	1.08
Peñarol not to win to nil	58.9%	54.4%	77.3%	0.70×	1.84
Peñarol to win to nil	41.1%	45.6%	22.7%	2.01×	2.19
Albion to win to nil	8.1%	7.7%	18.4%	0.42×	12.98

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Peñarol by 1	26.0%	28.0%	22.9%	1.22×	3.57
Draw	20.3%	23.7%	27.6%	0.86×	4.22
Peñarol by 2	20.2%	23.7%	10.6%	2.24×	4.22
Peñarol by 3+	19.5%	17.0%	7.4%	2.29×	5.88
Albion by 1	10.3%	11.8%	22.7%	0.52×	8.45
Albion by 2	3.0%	2.8%	7.2%	0.39×	35.35
Albion by 3+	0.8%	2.8%	2.5%	1.10×	35.67