Philadelphia Union v Toronto — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Philadelphia Union

21:00 UTC

Toronto

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 298h before kick-off

Philadelphia Union win

55.6%

model 56.0%

Draw

22.2%

model 23.5%

Toronto win

22.2%

model 20.5%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 9.5%
2-0 9.4%
3-1 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.1%	Under 2.5	43.9%
BTTS yes	55.7%	BTTS no	44.3%
Philadelphia Union 1+	84.7%	Philadelphia Union 2+	55.9%
Toronto 1+	65.1%	Toronto 2+	28.4%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

59/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Philadelphia Union (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 45%

57.0% fair odds 1.76

moderate signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Philadelphia Union not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Philadelphia Union carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1494.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Philadelphia Union have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.2% for Toronto. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.88 for Philadelphia Union and 1.05 for Toronto.

Why Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1494. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Toronto can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Philadelphia Union, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Toronto, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Philadelphia Union: 49% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Toronto: 39% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Philadelphia Union are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	562420	1.88–1.05	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542423	1.86–1.14	1-1 11%	58%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win	53.6%	51.6%	45.3%	1.14×	1.94
Draw	23.8%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
Toronto to win	22.6%	24.5%	30.0%	0.82×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union & both teams score	27.2%	25.2%	24.4%	1.03×	3.97
Philadelphia Union & not both score	26.5%	25.2%	21.1%	1.19×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	18.2%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Toronto & both teams score	12.6%	13.3%	18.0%	0.74×	7.54
Toronto & not both score	10.0%	13.3%	12.1%	1.10×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.6%	8.3%	5.8%	1.45×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union & over 1.5	44.9%	40.3%	37.2%	1.08×	2.48
Philadelphia Union & over 2.5	36.3%	34.9%	31.0%	1.12×	2.87
Philadelphia Union & under 3.5	32.5%	30.8%	28.4%	1.08×	3.25
Philadelphia Union & over 3.5	21.1%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
Toronto & over 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	18.2%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.55
Philadelphia Union & under 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	14.4%	1.25×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.56
Toronto & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Toronto & over 2.5	14.2%	12.8%	20.5%	0.63×	7.79
Philadelphia Union & under 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.63
Toronto & under 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Toronto & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	11.3%	0.70×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.1%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.63
Toronto & under 1.5	5.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	5.8%	1.38×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (1UP)	68.4%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Toronto (1UP)	41.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2UP)	53.6%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Toronto (2UP)	22.6%	23.8%	—	—	4.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win 2nd half	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
2nd half drawn	33.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Toronto to win 2nd half	23.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.0%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Toronto under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Toronto over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Toronto over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.0%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.4%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.3%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.6%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (+2.5)	85.6%	88.5%	89.4%	0.99×	1.13
Philadelphia Union (+0.5)	77.4%	78.5%	70.0%	1.12×	1.27
Toronto (+1.5)	69.1%	68.7%	76.8%	0.89×	1.46
Philadelphia Union (-0.5)	53.6%	52.4%	45.3%	1.16×	1.91
Toronto (+0.5)	46.4%	47.6%	54.7%	0.87×	2.10
Philadelphia Union (-1.5)	30.9%	31.3%	23.2%	1.35×	3.19
Toronto (-0.5)	22.6%	21.5%	30.0%	0.72×	4.65
Philadelphia Union (-2.5)	14.4%	11.5%	10.6%	1.09×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to concede	84.4%	81.5%	82.3%	0.99×	1.23
Toronto clean sheet	15.6%	18.5%	17.7%	1.04×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to concede in 1st half	55.0%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Toronto clean sheet in 1st half	45.0%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to concede in 2nd half	65.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Toronto clean sheet in 2nd half	34.7%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 6.5 corners	91.7%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Toronto under 5.5 corners	84.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Toronto under 4.5 corners	73.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Toronto over 2.5 corners	60.9%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Toronto under 3.5 corners	58.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Toronto over 3.5 corners	41.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Toronto under 2.5 corners	39.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Toronto over 4.5 corners	26.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Toronto over 5.5 corners	15.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Toronto over 6.5 corners	8.3%	10.1%	—	—	9.89

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 3.5 goals	97.1%	97.5%	94.0%	1.04×	1.03
Toronto under 2.5 goals	89.2%	87.8%	83.3%	1.05×	1.14
Toronto under 1.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	61.2%	1.11×	1.47
Toronto over 0.5 goals	68.0%	68.0%	73.3%	0.93×	1.47
Toronto under 0.5 goals	32.0%	32.0%	26.7%	1.20×	3.13
Toronto over 1.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	38.8%	0.82×	3.13
Toronto over 2.5 goals	10.8%	12.2%	16.7%	0.73×	8.21
Toronto over 3.5 goals	2.9%	2.5%	6.0%	0.42×	39.82

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Toronto under 0.5 in 1st half	63.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Toronto over 0.5 in 1st half	36.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Toronto over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.44

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto scores equally in both	42.8%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Toronto scores more in 2nd half	35.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Toronto scores more in 1st half	21.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (away no bet)	69.3%	66.5%	64.6%	1.03×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.7%	33.5%	35.4%	0.95×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto even goals	55.1%	56.9%	53.6%	1.06×	1.76
Toronto odd goals	44.9%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.4%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.6%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Philadelphia Union to score 2+ in a row	46.8%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Toronto to score 2+ in a row	22.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Philadelphia Union to score 3+ in a row	19.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Toronto to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	5.5%	—	—	18.33

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union corners (+3.5)	97.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Philadelphia Union corners (+2.5)	95.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Philadelphia Union corners (+1.5)	92.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Philadelphia Union corners (-1.5)	73.0%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Philadelphia Union corners (-2.5)	63.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Philadelphia Union corners (-3.5)	54.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Toronto corners (+3.5)	45.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Toronto corners (+2.5)	36.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Toronto corners (+1.5)	27.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Toronto corners (-1.5)	7.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Toronto corners (-2.5)	4.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.43
Toronto corners (-3.5)	2.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.49

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	40.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
0-8 corners	31.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	68.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	67.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	59.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	40.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	32.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	31.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.1%	11.5%	10.4%	1.11×	8.72
1-0	8.7%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.51
2-0	8.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
0-0	5.6%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.51
0-1	5.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
1-2	6.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
3-0	5.3%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.51
3-1	6.1%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.51
0-2	3.2%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
1-3	2.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.31
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.32
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.32
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.31
4-1	2.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.30
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.80×	58.32
Any other score	4.7%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2nd half DNB)	65.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Toronto (2nd half DNB)	34.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union leading at HT (DNB)	67.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Toronto leading at HT (DNB)	32.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw (1X)	77.4%	75.5%	70.0%	1.08×	1.32
Philadelphia Union or Toronto (12)	76.2%	75.5%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Toronto or draw (X2)	46.4%	48.4%	54.7%	0.89×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw at HT	80.7%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Philadelphia Union or Toronto at HT	59.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Toronto or draw at HT	59.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw (1UP)	77.4%	83.6%	—	—	1.20
Toronto or draw (1UP)	46.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw in 2nd half	76.8%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
Philadelphia Union or Toronto in 2nd half	66.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Toronto or draw in 2nd half	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.3%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.7%	41.1%	—	—	2.44

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (DNB)	70.3%	71.3%	60.2%	1.19×	1.40
Toronto (DNB)	29.7%	28.7%	39.8%	0.72×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score first	58.6%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Toronto to score first	35.9%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
No goal scored	5.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.9%	55.0%	61.3%	0.90×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.1%	45.0%	38.7%	1.16×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.8%	44.3%	51.1%	0.87×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.3%	34.6%	29.5%	1.17×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	11.1%	12.4%	10.4%	1.19×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.8%	12.4%	9.2%	1.34×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.5%	82.6%	79.5%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.5%	17.4%	20.5%	0.85×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.5%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.5%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	26.0%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Both score 1st half only	13.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.8%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.2%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	40.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.4%	47.2%	43.0%	1.10×	2.12
4-6 goals	31.9%	30.7%	33.0%	0.93×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.4%	20.2%	20.2%	1.00×	4.94
7+ goals	3.3%	1.8%	4.1%	0.45×	54.23

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Toronto to score exactly 0	32.0%	33.8%	26.7%	1.27×	2.96
Toronto to score exactly 2	20.8%	22.3%	22.2%	1.00×	4.49
Toronto to score 3+	10.8%	12.9%	16.7%	0.77×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 1	29.0%	26.6%	31.1%	0.85×	3.77
Philadelphia Union to score 3+	28.5%	26.6%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.6%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 0	15.6%	18.8%	17.7%	1.06×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union leading at HT	40.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Draw at HT	40.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Toronto leading at HT	19.3%	16.1%	—	—	6.23

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union -1: 2	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Philadelphia Union -1: 1	30.9%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Philadelphia Union -1: X	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (0:1)	46.4%	46.1%	54.7%	0.84×	2.17
Philadelphia Union (0:1)	30.9%	30.1%	23.2%	1.30×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	22.2%	1.09×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (0:2)	69.1%	72.3%	76.8%	0.94×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.6%	15.2%	12.7%	1.20×	6.56
Philadelphia Union (0:2)	14.4%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (0:3)	85.6%	90.6%	89.4%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.8%	5.8%	6.7%	0.87×	17.22
Philadelphia Union (0:3)	5.5%	5.8%	4.1%	1.43×	17.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto (0:4)	94.5%	94.6%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.7%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	81.49
Philadelphia Union (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	81.70

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (1:0)	77.4%	78.6%	70.0%	1.12×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.7%	12.7%	17.1%	0.74×	7.86
Toronto (1:0)	8.9%	6.9%	13.0%	0.53×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2:0)	91.1%	94.0%	87.0%	1.08×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.2%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.67
Toronto (2:0)	2.7%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to concede	68.0%	66.7%	73.3%	0.91×	1.50
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	32.0%	33.3%	26.7%	1.25×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union clean sheet in 1st half	63.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Philadelphia Union to concede in 1st half	36.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union clean sheet in 2nd half	50.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Philadelphia Union to concede in 2nd half	49.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 2.5 corners	94.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Philadelphia Union over 3.5 corners	87.4%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Philadelphia Union over 4.5 corners	78.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Philadelphia Union over 5.5 corners	67.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Philadelphia Union over 6.5 corners	56.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Philadelphia Union under 6.5 corners	43.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Philadelphia Union under 5.5 corners	32.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Philadelphia Union under 4.5 corners	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Philadelphia Union under 3.5 corners	12.6%	13.8%	—	—	7.26
Philadelphia Union under 2.5 corners	6.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union under 3.5 goals	88.2%	87.3%	90.6%	0.96×	1.15
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 goals	84.4%	82.2%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Philadelphia Union under 2.5 goals	71.5%	74.2%	75.0%	0.99×	1.35
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals	55.4%	58.6%	51.3%	1.14×	1.71
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 goals	44.6%	41.4%	48.7%	0.85×	2.42
Philadelphia Union over 2.5 goals	28.5%	25.8%	25.0%	1.03×	3.88
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 goals	15.6%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.62
Philadelphia Union over 3.5 goals	11.8%	12.7%	9.4%	1.36×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 in 1st half	80.9%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 in 1st half	55.0%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 in 1st half	45.0%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 in 1st half	19.1%	16.0%	—	—	6.24

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union scores more in 2nd half	41.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Philadelphia Union scores equally in both	31.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Philadelphia Union scores more in 1st half	27.1%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	51.3%	51.4%	45.3%	1.14×	1.95
Toronto (home no bet)	48.7%	48.6%	54.7%	0.89×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union even goals	51.2%	50.7%	51.0%	1.00×	1.97
Philadelphia Union odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	49.0%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
HT 1-0	22.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	12.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 1-1	10.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	9.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
Any other HT score	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-1	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.34

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	33.4%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Draw at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	17.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Toronto at HT / Toronto at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Toronto at FT	9.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Philadelphia Union at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Toronto at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Toronto at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Philadelphia Union at HT / Toronto at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score last	58.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Toronto to score last	35.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	5.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Philadelphia Union to lead by 1 at any time	68.4%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.1%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Toronto to lead by 1 at any time	41.9%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Philadelphia Union to lead by 2 at any time	38.1%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Philadelphia Union to lead by 3 at any time	17.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Toronto to lead by 2 at any time	14.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.40
Toronto to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.39

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union most corners	81.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Toronto most corners	12.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Corners level	6.4%	8.3%	—	—	12.00

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	83.4%	1.05×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.3%	78.7%	75.9%	1.04×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.0%	78.7%	73.2%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.2%	72.3%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.3%	58.7%	1.08×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.2%	59.1%	57.4%	1.03×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.3%	53.2%	56.3%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.3%	48.4%	49.4%	0.98×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.4%	48.4%	43.0%	1.13×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.8%	39.2%	34.2%	1.15×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.9%	35.2%	33.0%	1.07×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.9%	30.2%	26.2%	1.15×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.1%	18.8%	17.2%	1.09×	5.32
7+ goals	3.3%	2.6%	4.1%	0.63×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union never behind	52.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Toronto never behind	26.0%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.8%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.2%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	89.1%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.6%	82.3%	78.8%	1.04×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.6%	82.3%	79.8%	1.03×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.8%	61.7%	63.0%	0.98×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.6%	58.6%	60.2%	0.97×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.4%	41.4%	39.8%	1.04×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.2%	38.3%	37.0%	1.03×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.4%	17.7%	20.2%	0.88×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.4%	17.7%	21.2%	0.84×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	5.8%	1.34×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.7%	92.4%	87.8%	1.05×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.9%	75.9%	74.8%	1.01×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.8%	72.4%	74.9%	0.97×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.6%	51.9%	51.8%	1.00×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.4%	48.1%	48.2%	1.00×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.2%	27.6%	25.1%	1.10×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.1%	24.1%	25.2%	0.96×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.3%	7.6%	12.2%	0.62×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	4.4%	0.64×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.4%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.6%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	22.1%	—	—	4.52
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto not to score in both halves	81.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Philadelphia Union not to score in both halves	64.1%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Philadelphia Union to score in both halves	35.9%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Toronto to score in both halves	18.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.9%	58.6%	61.3%	0.96×	1.71
Only Philadelphia Union scores	26.5%	26.1%	21.1%	1.24×	3.84
Only Toronto scores	10.0%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.07
Neither team scores	5.6%	7.1%	5.8%	1.24×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.0%	22.6%	19.7%	1.14×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.5%	15.9%	1.10×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.9%	12.1%	14.5%	0.83×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	10.4%	1.17×	8.26
6 or more goals	8.3%	7.6%	10.9%	0.70×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.6%	7.6%	5.8%	1.32×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.6%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	28.6%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	22.5%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
3+ goals in 1st half	13.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	17.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto not to win both halves	95.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Philadelphia Union not to win both halves	82.1%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Philadelphia Union to win both halves	17.9%	16.6%	—	—	6.04
Toronto to win both halves	4.5%	2.8%	—	—	35.36

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win either half	66.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Toronto to win neither half	62.1%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Toronto to win either half	37.9%	35.0%	—	—	2.85
Philadelphia Union to win neither half	33.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toronto not to win to nil	90.0%	88.1%	87.9%	1.00×	1.14
Philadelphia Union not to win to nil	73.5%	75.3%	78.9%	0.95×	1.33
Philadelphia Union to win to nil	26.5%	24.7%	21.1%	1.17×	4.05
Toronto to win to nil	10.0%	11.9%	12.1%	0.98×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.8%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Philadelphia Union by 1	22.7%	24.1%	22.2%	1.09×	4.15
Philadelphia Union by 2	16.6%	17.0%	12.7%	1.34×	5.87
Philadelphia Union by 3+	14.4%	11.8%	10.6%	1.11×	8.50
Toronto by 1	13.7%	11.8%	17.1%	0.69×	8.50
Toronto by 2	6.2%	7.2%	8.6%	0.84×	13.91
Toronto by 3+	2.7%	2.7%	4.5%	0.60×	36.89