Pisa v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 9
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.77 – -0.77
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
14.5%
Draw
22.6%
Atalanta win
62.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLLWL last 10
scored 14
from 12.8 xG
conceded 15
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.71–1.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.16–1.90 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 1.77 xGAtalanta 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Pisa |
Simone Canestrelli | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 10' |
 Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yunus Musah |
| 17' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Henrik Meister |
| 21' |
Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 21' |
Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 38' |
Atalanta |
Lorenzo Bernasconi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 46' |
Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 56' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 61' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marten de Roon |
| 66' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 75' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 75' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 79' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gabriele Piccinini |
| 82' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.69 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 85' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mehdi Leris |
| 89' |
Atalanta |
Davide Zappacosta | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 89' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
Players
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.40 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.68 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.86 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yunus Musah DMR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.73 |
| Éderson Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.81 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Moreo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.53 | 1.05 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simone Scuffet GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Francesco Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arturo Calabresi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Henrik Meister FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.80 |
| Marius Marin MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mehdi Leris Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Rosen Bozhinov Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |