Pisa v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.19
Goals − xG
-0.58 – -0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
27.7%
Draw
28.1%
Fiorentina win
44.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.12–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.16 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 0.58 xGFiorentina 0.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Pisa |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 10' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 12' |
Pisa |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 21' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacopo Fazzini |
| 27' |
Fiorentina |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 37' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 38' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 42' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 44' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 54' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Bonfanti |
| 55' |
Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Pisa |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 63' |
Fiorentina |
Marin Pongracic | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 75' |
Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Pisa |
Giovanni Bonfanti | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Pisa |
Juan Cuadrado | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Matteo Tramoni |
| 89' |
Fiorentina |
Edin Dzeko | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jacopo Fazzini AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Dodô DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pablo Marí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Robin Gosens DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Albert Gudmundsson AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Simon Sohm Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edin Dzeko Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Tramoni FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Bonfanti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Marius Marin MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehdi Leris DML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Malthe Højholt Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Vural Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Moreo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |