Pisa v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 9
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 1.36
Goals − xG
-0.01 – -0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
21.8%
Draw
23.8%
Genoa win
54.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLLDLWL last 10
scored 6
from 9.7 xG
conceded 16
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.26–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 1.01 xGGenoa 2.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 10' |
Genoa |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 13' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Amorim |
| 18' |
 Pisa |
Simone Canestrelli | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Samuele Angori |
| 21' |
Genoa |
Stefano Sabelli | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Felipe Loyola |
| 31' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 42' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 44' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 50' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Tommaso Baldanzi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
| 54' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 68' |
Pisa |
Juan Cuadrado | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Messias |
| 80' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrizio Masini |
| 87' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Caracciolo |
| 90' |
Pisa |
Samuele Angori | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 92' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrizio Masini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Aarón Martín MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 0.17 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Stefano Sabelli ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 81 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Alex Amorim MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi AMC | 67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| Jeff Ekhator FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Jean Onana Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitinha Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Otoa Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.14 | 0.57 |
| Stefano Moreo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Arturo Calabresi DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felipe Loyola AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Isak Vural Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |