Pisa v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 30 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 11
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.78 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
23.9%
Draw
28.8%
Lazio win
47.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Lazio have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 12 from 12.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWDWLLWWWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.95–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.10–1.68 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 0.78 xGLazio 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 21' |
 Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alessio Romagnoli |
| 24' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 29' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 30' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 35' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 36' |
Lazio |
Luca Pellegrini | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Toma Basic |
| 38' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 39' |
Pisa |
Juan Cuadrado | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Tramoni |
| 48' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 50' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 52' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 55' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 65' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro |
| 69' |
Pisa |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 72' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 76' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 79' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | M'Bala Nzola |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Matías Vecino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Mario Gila DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Toma Basic MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Pedro Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Matías Vecino Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Manuel Lazzari Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| Juan Cuadrado AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| Marius Marin MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daniel Denoon DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Arturo Calabresi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Stefano Moreo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mehdi Leris Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |