Pisa v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 1 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 7
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.46 – +0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
35.2%
Draw
29.3%
Lecce win
35.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.15 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 2.46 xGLecce 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jamil Siebert |
| 12' |
 Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Pisa |
Filip Stojilkovic | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 20' |
Pisa |
Filip Stojilkovic | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 25' |
Pisa |
Simone Canestrelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 30' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 32' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 48' |
Pisa |
Filip Stojilkovic | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rosen Bozhinov |
| 51' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Walid Cheddira |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Isak Vural | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ebenezer Akinsanmiro |
| 55' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Santiago Pierotti |
| 72' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Henrik Meister |
| 73' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 73' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Pisa |
Simone Canestrelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 79' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Camarda |
| 83' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Pisa |
Gabriele Piccinini | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Juan Cuadrado |
| 88' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 91' |
Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 92' |
Pisa |
Juan Cuadrado | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 94' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rafiu Durosinmi |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.82 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 73 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 1.04 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.90 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Gaby Jean Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Moreo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.26 | 1.24 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.99 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Mehdi Leris DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.77 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| Rosen Bozhinov DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.87 |
| Filip Stojilkovic FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Isak Vural MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.65 |
| Idrissa Touré Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 1.29 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Juan Cuadrado Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |