Pisa v Modena — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Pisa

20:00 UTC

Modena

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 729h before kick-off

Pisa win

30.7%

model 34.6%

Draw

30.5%

model 30.2%

Modena win

38.9%

model 35.1%

313039

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.4%
0-0 10.0%
0-1 9.0%
1-0 8.9%
1-2 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.8%	Under 2.5	55.2%
BTTS yes	51.8%	BTTS no	48.2%
Pisa 1+	70.8%	Pisa 2+	34.8%
Modena 1+	71.1%	Modena 2+	35.2%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

47/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Modena (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 37%

53.0% fair odds 1.89

moderate signal · 332 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Modena (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Modena carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1309.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Modena have an estimated 38.9% win probability, against 30.7% for Pisa and 30.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Pisa and 1.24 for Modena.

Why Pisa

Nothing in the data singles out Pisa.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.23 to 1.24. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Modena can win

Modena carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1309. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).

Availability

1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Modena, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Pisa: 46% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces. Modena: 47% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Modena are the model's most likely outcome at 38.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 47/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 11.2 xG conceded 23 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	353035	1.23–1.24	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	333137	1.17–1.25	1-1 15%	44%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to win	36.9%	36.4%	25.5%	1.42×	2.75
Pisa to win	32.6%	30.4%	42.7%	0.71×	3.29
Draw	30.6%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena & not both score	20.8%	21.8%	13.3%	1.64×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.1%	21.8%	22.9%	0.95×	4.59
Pisa & not both score	18.1%	18.0%	23.9%	0.75×	5.56
Modena & both teams score	16.1%	18.0%	12.3%	1.46×	5.57
Pisa & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	18.9%	0.70×	7.53
Draw & not both score	10.4%	13.3%	9.1%	1.46×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena & under 3.5	27.7%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Modena & over 1.5	27.2%	26.1%	18.8%	1.39×	3.84
Pisa & under 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	31.9%	0.68×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	25.0%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	25.0%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Pisa & over 1.5	23.7%	21.6%	31.8%	0.68×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	22.9%	0.94×	4.63
Modena & over 2.5	20.2%	21.6%	15.1%	1.43×	4.63
Pisa & over 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.56
Modena & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Pisa & under 2.5	14.9%	12.8%	18.4%	0.70×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.4%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Pisa & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Modena & under 1.5	9.6%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Modena & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Pisa & over 3.5	7.8%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.6%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (1UP)	52.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Pisa (1UP)	49.0%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2UP)	36.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Pisa (2UP)	32.6%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.0%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Modena to win 2nd half	33.1%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Pisa to win 2nd half	27.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.6%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Modena over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.9%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Modena under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.1%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Modena over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.4%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.7%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Pisa under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.5%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Pisa over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.5%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Pisa over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.3%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (+2.5)	95.5%	96.3%	93.3%	1.03×	1.04
Modena (+1.5)	85.9%	88.5%	80.3%	1.10×	1.13
Modena (+0.5)	67.4%	68.7%	57.3%	1.20×	1.46
Pisa (+0.5)	63.1%	62.9%	74.5%	0.85×	1.59
Modena (-0.5)	36.9%	37.1%	25.5%	1.45×	2.70
Pisa (-0.5)	32.6%	31.3%	42.7%	0.73×	3.19
Pisa (-1.5)	14.1%	11.5%	19.7%	0.59×	8.67
Pisa (-2.5)	4.5%	3.7%	6.7%	0.55×	27.03

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to concede	68.8%	72.4%	77.7%	0.93×	1.38
Modena clean sheet	31.2%	27.6%	22.3%	1.24×	3.62

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena clean sheet in 1st half	60.6%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Modena to concede in 1st half	39.4%	35.8%	—	—	2.80

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena clean sheet in 2nd half	51.5%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Modena to concede in 2nd half	48.5%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 6.5 corners	83.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Modena under 5.5 corners	74.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Modena over 2.5 corners	73.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Modena under 4.5 corners	60.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Modena over 3.5 corners	55.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Modena under 3.5 corners	44.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Modena over 4.5 corners	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Modena under 2.5 corners	26.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Modena over 5.5 corners	26.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Modena over 6.5 corners	16.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 3.5 goals	96.1%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Modena under 2.5 goals	86.8%	87.8%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Modena over 0.5 goals	71.5%	71.8%	67.1%	1.07×	1.39
Modena under 1.5 goals	64.3%	63.2%	69.4%	0.91×	1.58
Modena over 1.5 goals	35.7%	36.8%	30.6%	1.20×	2.72
Modena under 0.5 goals	28.5%	28.2%	32.9%	0.86×	3.55
Modena over 2.5 goals	13.2%	12.2%	9.2%	1.32×	8.20
Modena over 3.5 goals	3.9%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena under 1.5 in 1st half	90.9%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Modena under 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Modena over 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Modena over 1.5 in 1st half	9.1%	6.3%	—	—	15.99

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena scores equally in both	40.4%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Modena scores more in 2nd half	37.6%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Modena scores more in 1st half	22.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (away no bet)	51.6%	51.7%	57.3%	0.90×	1.94
Draw (away no bet)	48.4%	48.3%	42.7%	1.13×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena even goals	54.1%	52.6%	55.4%	0.95×	1.90
Modena odd goals	45.9%	47.4%	44.6%	1.06×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.7%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.3%	39.6%	—	—	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.3%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Modena to score 2+ in a row	28.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Pisa to score 2+ in a row	25.4%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.4%	16.2%	—	—	6.19
Modena to score 3+ in a row	8.6%	5.6%	—	—	17.98
Pisa to score 3+ in a row	7.0%	5.5%	—	—	18.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa corners (+3.5)	86.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Modena corners (+3.5)	82.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Pisa corners (+2.5)	79.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Modena corners (+2.5)	74.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Pisa corners (+1.5)	70.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Modena corners (+1.5)	63.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Pisa corners (-1.5)	36.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Modena corners (-1.5)	29.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Pisa corners (-2.5)	25.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Modena corners (-2.5)	20.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Pisa corners (-3.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Modena corners (-3.5)	13.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	19.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	80.2%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	72.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	19.8%	19.4%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	13.8%	16.9%	—	—	5.90

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.5%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-0	10.4%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
0-1	9.6%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
1-0	8.8%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.51
0-2	7.0%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
2-0	6.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-2	4.7%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.29
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.30
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
1-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.31
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (2nd half DNB)	54.3%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Pisa (2nd half DNB)	45.7%	46.3%	—	—	2.16

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena leading at HT (DNB)	50.0%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Pisa leading at HT (DNB)	50.0%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa or Modena (12)	69.4%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Modena or draw (X2)	67.4%	69.6%	57.3%	1.22×	1.44
Pisa or draw (1X)	63.1%	63.6%	74.5%	0.85×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw at HT	73.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Pisa or draw at HT	73.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Pisa or Modena at HT	53.0%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw (1UP)	67.4%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Pisa or draw (1UP)	63.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena or draw in 2nd half	72.2%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Pisa or draw in 2nd half	66.9%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Pisa or Modena in 2nd half	61.0%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.1%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.9%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (DNB)	53.1%	50.9%	37.4%	1.36×	1.96
Pisa (DNB)	46.9%	49.1%	62.6%	0.78×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score first	46.4%	46.0%	—	—	2.18
Pisa to score first	43.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	10.4%	9.4%	—	—	10.65

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.7%	51.3%	53.9%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	49.3%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.9%	41.6%	37.9%	1.10×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	36.2%	38.4%	39.4%	0.98×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.5%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.4%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.4%	85.6%	86.1%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.6%	14.4%	13.9%	1.03×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	22.2%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	11.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	4.0%	4.9%	—	—	20.29

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.2%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.3%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
A goal in each half	48.7%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.6%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	28.9%	26.6%	26.8%	0.99×	3.76
4-6 goals	21.3%	22.9%	23.5%	0.97×	4.37
7+ goals	1.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Modena to score exactly 0	28.5%	27.4%	32.9%	0.83×	3.65
Modena to score exactly 2	22.4%	22.3%	21.5%	1.03×	4.49
Modena to score 3+	13.2%	12.9%	9.2%	1.40×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.6%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Pisa to score exactly 0	31.2%	32.6%	22.3%	1.46×	3.07
Pisa to score exactly 2	21.2%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Pisa to score 3+	11.3%	14.3%	16.2%	0.88×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Modena leading at HT	26.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Pisa leading at HT	26.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena -1: 1	63.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Modena -1: X	20.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Modena -1: 2	16.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (0:1)	67.4%	65.2%	57.3%	1.14×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.5%	17.8%	23.2%	0.77×	5.61
Pisa (0:1)	14.1%	13.7%	19.7%	0.70×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (0:2)	85.9%	87.1%	80.3%	1.08×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.6%	7.7%	13.1%	0.59×	13.03
Pisa (0:2)	4.5%	3.8%	6.7%	0.56×	26.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (0:3)	95.5%	96.6%	93.3%	1.04×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.3%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.08
Pisa (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	82.07
Pisa (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	82.14

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (1:0)	63.1%	65.3%	74.5%	0.88×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	20.0%	21.7%	15.7%	1.38×	4.62
Modena (1:0)	16.8%	17.1%	10.0%	1.72×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (2:0)	83.2%	84.6%	90.0%	0.94×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.1%	10.3%	6.5%	1.59×	9.74
Modena (2:0)	5.7%	6.4%	3.6%	1.76×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.3%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	29.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to concede	71.5%	73.1%	67.1%	1.09×	1.37
Pisa clean sheet	28.5%	26.9%	32.9%	0.82×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa clean sheet in 1st half	60.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Pisa to concede in 1st half	39.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.71

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to concede in 2nd half	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Pisa clean sheet in 2nd half	47.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 6.5 corners	80.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Pisa over 2.5 corners	76.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Pisa under 5.5 corners	69.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Pisa over 3.5 corners	60.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Pisa under 4.5 corners	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Pisa over 4.5 corners	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Pisa under 3.5 corners	39.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Pisa over 5.5 corners	30.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Pisa under 2.5 corners	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Pisa over 6.5 corners	19.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 3.5 goals	96.9%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Pisa under 2.5 goals	88.7%	87.3%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Pisa over 0.5 goals	68.8%	68.0%	77.7%	0.87×	1.47
Pisa under 1.5 goals	67.5%	67.9%	58.0%	1.17×	1.47
Pisa over 1.5 goals	32.5%	32.1%	42.0%	0.76×	3.12
Pisa under 0.5 goals	31.2%	32.0%	22.3%	1.44×	3.12
Pisa over 2.5 goals	11.3%	12.7%	16.2%	0.79×	7.85
Pisa over 3.5 goals	3.1%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.54

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 1st half	91.0%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Pisa under 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	63.8%	—	—	1.57
Pisa over 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	36.2%	—	—	2.77
Pisa over 1.5 in 1st half	9.0%	5.4%	—	—	18.68

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa scores equally in both	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Pisa scores more in 2nd half	34.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Pisa scores more in 1st half	23.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena (home no bet)	54.7%	51.4%	44.5%	1.16×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.3%	48.6%	55.5%	0.87×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa even goals	54.9%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Pisa odd goals	45.1%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.0%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
HT 0-1	18.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-0	18.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	9.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
HT 0-2	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	41.91
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	41.91
Any other HT score	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Modena at HT / Modena at FT	19.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Pisa at HT / Pisa at FT	18.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Modena at FT	14.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Pisa at FT	12.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Pisa at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Modena at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Pisa at HT / Modena at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Modena at HT / Pisa at FT	1.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena to score last	46.5%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
Pisa to score last	43.1%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	10.4%	8.8%	—	—	11.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.6%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Modena to lead by 1 at any time	52.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Pisa to lead by 1 at any time	49.0%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.9%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Modena to lead by 2 at any time	22.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.12
Pisa to lead by 2 at any time	19.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.50
Modena to lead by 3 at any time	7.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.97
Pisa to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	—	—	15.03

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa most corners	47.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Modena most corners	40.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.9%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	69.9%	68.8%	72.0%	0.96×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.4%	68.8%	69.6%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.0%	68.8%	66.3%	1.04×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.6%	48.5%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.0%	48.5%	43.5%	1.12×	2.06
3-6 goals	42.3%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-5 goals	39.8%	39.2%	44.0%	0.89×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.7%	35.2%	38.7%	0.91×	2.84
4-6 goals	21.3%	24.5%	23.5%	1.04×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.8%	18.8%	21.2%	0.89×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.6%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.26
7+ goals	1.2%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Modena never behind	40.6%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Pisa never behind	36.8%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.3%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.6%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.5%	77.3%	75.2%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.1%	72.5%	73.2%	0.99×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	56.5%	58.6%	52.4%	1.12×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	43.5%	41.4%	47.6%	0.87×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	28.9%	27.5%	26.8%	1.03×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	22.5%	22.7%	24.8%	0.92×	4.40
Under 0.5 goals	10.4%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.7%	4.6%	3.7%	1.23×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.8%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.1%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.7%	86.7%	89.3%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.5%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.1%	61.9%	64.0%	0.97×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.9%	38.1%	36.0%	1.06×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.5%	27.6%	32.1%	0.86×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.3%	13.3%	10.7%	1.24×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.9%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.2%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.9%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.8%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.2%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.8%	20.4%	—	—	4.91
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to score in both halves	80.9%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Modena not to score in both halves	79.1%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Modena to score in both halves	20.9%	21.4%	—	—	4.67
Pisa to score in both halves	19.1%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.7%	53.8%	53.9%	1.00×	1.86
Only Modena scores	20.8%	22.3%	13.3%	1.67×	4.49
Only Pisa scores	18.1%	16.0%	23.9%	0.67×	6.24
Neither team scores	10.4%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.6%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	21.0%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.5%	17.5%	17.8%	0.98×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.7%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	10.4%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	6.1%	7.6%	5.4%	1.42×	13.15
6 or more goals	3.7%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.7%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
3+ goals in 1st half	8.1%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.9%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	33.3%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	24.8%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to win both halves	92.4%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Modena not to win both halves	91.0%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Modena to win both halves	9.0%	5.9%	—	—	16.94
Pisa to win both halves	7.6%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to win neither half	53.3%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Modena to win either half	50.6%	54.2%	—	—	1.84
Modena to win neither half	49.4%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Pisa to win either half	46.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to win to nil	81.9%	83.1%	76.1%	1.09×	1.20
Modena not to win to nil	79.2%	78.1%	86.7%	0.90×	1.28
Modena to win to nil	20.8%	21.9%	13.3%	1.64×	4.57
Pisa to win to nil	18.1%	16.9%	23.9%	0.71×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.6%	27.7%	31.9%	0.87×	3.61
Modena by 1	20.0%	24.1%	15.7%	1.54×	4.15
Pisa by 1	18.5%	17.1%	23.2%	0.74×	5.87
Modena by 2	11.1%	11.7%	6.5%	1.81×	8.51
Pisa by 2	9.6%	7.2%	13.1%	0.55×	13.90
Modena by 3+	5.7%	7.2%	3.6%	1.99×	13.91
Pisa by 3+	4.5%	2.7%	6.7%	0.40×	36.79