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Pisa v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 August 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526

Serie A xG

0–1
0.66 – 0.95 xG
Shots
7 – 10
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
2 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.66 – +0.05
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.50.81.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Matìas Soulè Malvano 54' — goal
Pisa 0.66 xGRoma 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Matìas Soulè Malvano 2' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Henrik Meister 7' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Henrik Meister 9' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Matìas Soulè Malvano 41' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Matìas Soulè Malvano 48' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mario Hermoso 54' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Matìas Soulè Malvano 54' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Michel Aebischer 65' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Matìas Soulè Malvano 71' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Michel Aebischer 76' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Angelino 79' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 80' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Evan Ndicka 81' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Calvin Stengs 87' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Juan Cuadrado 88' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Artem Dovbyk 89' — Saved Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Calvin Stengs 91' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Pisa attacking right Roma attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Evan Ferguson
7' Pisa Henrik Meister 0.45 Open Play Saved Shot Idrissa Touré
9' Pisa Henrik Meister 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Michel Aebischer
41' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.03 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
48' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mario Hermoso
54' Roma Mario Hermoso 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Evan Ndicka
54' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Goal Evan Ferguson
65' Pisa Michel Aebischer 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
71' Roma Matìas Soulè Malvano 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
76' Pisa Michel Aebischer 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot M'Bala Nzola
79' Roma Angelino 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Artem Dovbyk
80' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Artem Dovbyk
81' Roma Evan Ndicka 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Paulo Dybala
87' Pisa Calvin Stengs 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot M'Bala Nzola
88' Pisa Juan Cuadrado 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Simone Canestrelli
89' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Kouadio Kone
91' Pisa Calvin Stengs 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Juan Cuadrado

Players

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matìas Soulè Malvano FWR 90 1 0 5 0 0.22 0.00 0.67
Angelino DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.24
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.07 0.63
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Kouadio Kone MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.50 0.72
Gianluca Mancini DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bryan Cristante MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.69
Wesley DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Mario Hermoso DC 83 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.02 0.09
Evan Ferguson FW 74 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.14 0.17
Stephan El Shaarawy FWL 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paulo Dybala Sub 43 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.05 0.19
Artem Dovbyk Sub 16 0 0 1 2 0.50 0.12 0.62
Mehmet Zeki Çelik Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Neil El Aynaoui Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Devyne Rensch Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pisa

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Henrik Meister FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.54 0.00 0.58
Michel Aebischer MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.08 0.16
Antonio Caracciolo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Idrissa Touré DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.45 0.45
Adrian Semper GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Simone Canestrelli DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Samuele Angori DML 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Marius Marin MC 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefano Moreo FW 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Matteo Tramoni MC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mateus Lusuardi DC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Juan Cuadrado Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.09
Arturo Calabresi Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
M'Bala Nzola Sub 24 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.07
Calvin Stengs Sub 6 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Mehdi Leris Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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