Pisa v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 21
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 18
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+0.23 – +0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Pisa win
27.6%
Draw
27.1%
Sassuolo win
45.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLWDWLDLL last 10
scored 14
from 16.9 xG
conceded 20
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.51–1.40 | 1-1 12% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Pisa 0.77 xGSassuolo 2.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Pisa attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stefano Moreo |
| 16' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 24' |
 Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 26' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rosen Bozhinov |
| 30' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 32' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Samuele Angori |
| 40' |
Pisa |
Stefano Moreo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Pisa |
Idrissa Touré | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 45' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.00 | From Corner | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 45' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Pisa |
Michel Aebischer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rafiu Durosinmi |
| 51' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 54' |
Pisa |
Mehdi Leris | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felipe Loyola |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 57' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.11 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Nemanja Matic |
| 62' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 65' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 67' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 67' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josh Doig |
| 70' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 72' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Moro | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 76' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michel Aebischer |
| 84' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Moro | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 87' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rosen Bozhinov |
| 89' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Idrissa Touré |
| 90' |
Pisa |
Rafiu Durosinmi | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mehdi Leris |
| 91' |
Pisa |
Felipe Loyola | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Calvin Stengs |
| 95' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Volpato |
Players
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.34 | 1.39 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 1.39 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.79 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.48 | 1.14 |
| Luca Lipani Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Aebischer MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| Matteo Tramoni AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Simone Scuffet GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Rosen Bozhinov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Stefano Moreo AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Marin MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Henrik Meister FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rafiu Durosinmi Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Mehdi Leris Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| Felipe Loyola Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Filip Stojilkovic Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Calvin Stengs Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 |