Pisa v Sudtirol — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Pisa

20:00 UTC

Sudtirol

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 297h before kick-off

Pisa win

44.1%

model 42.8%

Draw

27.9%

model 28.7%

Sudtirol win

27.9%

model 28.5%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.7%
1-0 9.1%
2-1 9.0%
0-0 8.6%
2-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.1%	Under 2.5	50.9%
BTTS yes	54.4%	BTTS no	45.6%
Pisa 1+	77.1%	Pisa 2+	43.3%
Sudtirol 1+	68.8%	Sudtirol 2+	32.4%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

49/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 72%

73.4% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 3256 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4340 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Pisa.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Pisa have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 27.9% for the draw and 27.9% for Sudtirol. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Pisa and 1.16 for Sudtirol.

Why Pisa

Nothing in the data singles out Pisa.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.9%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Sudtirol can win

Sudtirol carry the stronger rating, 1414 Elo against 1309.

Key players

Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).

Availability

1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Sudtirol, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Pisa: 46% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces. Sudtirol: 47% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Pisa are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 49/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 11.2 xG conceded 23 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432929	1.47–1.16	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	482724	1.62–1.10	1-1 13%	51%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to win	48.2%	47.4%	42.7%	1.11×	2.11
Draw	27.5%	27.9%	31.9%	0.88×	3.58
Sudtirol to win	24.3%	24.5%	25.5%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa & not both score	25.4%	25.2%	23.9%	1.05×	3.97
Pisa & both teams score	22.8%	21.8%	18.9%	1.15×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.5%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Sudtirol & both teams score	12.6%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54
Sudtirol & not both score	11.8%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.0%	8.3%	9.1%	0.92×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa & over 1.5	38.9%	34.9%	31.8%	1.10×	2.87
Pisa & under 3.5	32.2%	30.8%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Pisa & over 2.5	30.2%	30.7%	24.4%	1.26×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	21.1%	21.6%	23.7%	0.91×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.5%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Pisa & under 2.5	18.0%	18.0%	18.4%	0.98×	5.55
Sudtirol & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.55
Sudtirol & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.55
Pisa & over 3.5	16.0%	18.0%	11.0%	1.64×	5.56
Sudtirol & over 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Pisa & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Sudtirol & under 2.5	9.8%	7.9%	10.6%	0.75×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63
Sudtirol & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Sudtirol & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (1UP)	63.4%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Sudtirol (1UP)	42.7%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (2UP)	48.2%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Sudtirol (2UP)	24.3%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to win 2nd half	39.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
2nd half drawn	36.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Sudtirol to win 2nd half	24.4%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.9%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.1%	13.0%	—	—	7.71

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Pisa over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.3%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Pisa under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.7%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Pisa over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (+2.5)	89.0%	88.5%	93.3%	0.95×	1.13
Pisa (+0.5)	75.7%	78.5%	74.5%	1.05×	1.27
Sudtirol (+1.5)	73.9%	73.7%	80.3%	0.92×	1.36
Sudtirol (+0.5)	51.8%	52.4%	57.3%	0.92×	1.91
Pisa (-0.5)	48.2%	47.6%	42.7%	1.11×	2.10
Pisa (-1.5)	26.1%	26.3%	19.7%	1.34×	3.80
Sudtirol (-0.5)	24.3%	21.5%	25.5%	0.84×	4.65
Pisa (-2.5)	11.0%	11.5%	6.7%	1.71×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to concede	80.3%	81.4%	77.7%	1.05×	1.23
Sudtirol clean sheet	19.7%	18.6%	22.3%	0.83×	5.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to concede in 1st half	50.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Sudtirol clean sheet in 1st half	49.8%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to concede in 2nd half	60.3%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Sudtirol clean sheet in 2nd half	39.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 6.5 corners	88.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sudtirol under 5.5 corners	79.8%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Sudtirol over 2.5 corners	67.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sudtirol under 4.5 corners	67.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sudtirol under 3.5 corners	51.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Sudtirol over 3.5 corners	49.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sudtirol over 4.5 corners	32.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sudtirol under 2.5 corners	32.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Sudtirol over 5.5 corners	20.2%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Sudtirol over 6.5 corners	11.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 3.5 goals	97.4%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Sudtirol under 2.5 goals	90.1%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Sudtirol under 1.5 goals	70.0%	71.8%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Sudtirol over 0.5 goals	66.6%	68.0%	67.1%	1.01×	1.47
Sudtirol under 0.5 goals	33.4%	32.0%	32.9%	0.97×	3.13
Sudtirol over 1.5 goals	30.0%	28.2%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Sudtirol over 2.5 goals	9.9%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.05
Sudtirol over 3.5 goals	2.6%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.84

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 1st half	92.8%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 1st half	7.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.49

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol scores equally in both	43.7%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Sudtirol scores more in 2nd half	35.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Sudtirol scores more in 1st half	21.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (away no bet)	63.7%	61.9%	57.3%	1.08×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	36.3%	38.1%	42.7%	0.89×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol even goals	55.6%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Sudtirol odd goals	44.4%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.2%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.8%	12.3%	—	—	8.16

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Pisa to score 2+ in a row	40.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Sudtirol to score 2+ in a row	21.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Pisa to score 3+ in a row	15.2%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
Sudtirol to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	5.5%	—	—	18.34

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa corners (+3.5)	89.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Pisa corners (+2.5)	83.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Sudtirol corners (+3.5)	81.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Pisa corners (+1.5)	74.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Sudtirol corners (+2.5)	72.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sudtirol corners (+1.5)	61.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Pisa corners (-1.5)	38.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Pisa corners (-2.5)	27.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sudtirol corners (-1.5)	25.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Pisa corners (-3.5)	18.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Sudtirol corners (-2.5)	16.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Sudtirol corners (-3.5)	10.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	58.0%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	26.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	15.7%	22.5%	—	—	4.44

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	89.5%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	84.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	68.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	58.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	42.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	31.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	15.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	10.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.1%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.51
2-0	8.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-0	8.0%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
0-1	5.8%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
1-2	6.4%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
3-1	5.1%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.51
0-2	4.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.30
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.32
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	4.7%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.29
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (2nd half DNB)	61.9%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Sudtirol (2nd half DNB)	38.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa leading at HT (DNB)	64.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sudtirol leading at HT (DNB)	35.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa or draw (1X)	75.7%	75.5%	74.5%	1.01×	1.32
Pisa or Sudtirol (12)	72.5%	72.1%	68.1%	1.06×	1.39
Sudtirol or draw (X2)	51.8%	52.6%	57.3%	0.92×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa or draw at HT	79.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Sudtirol or draw at HT	63.2%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Pisa or Sudtirol at HT	56.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa or draw (1UP)	75.7%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Sudtirol or draw (1UP)	51.8%	58.6%	—	—	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa or draw in 2nd half	75.6%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Pisa or Sudtirol in 2nd half	64.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Sudtirol or draw in 2nd half	60.4%	63.5%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (DNB)	66.5%	67.4%	62.6%	1.08×	1.48
Sudtirol (DNB)	33.5%	32.6%	37.4%	0.87×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to score first	54.9%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Sudtirol to score first	37.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	8.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.9%	51.3%	53.9%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.1%	48.7%	46.1%	1.06×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.7%	41.6%	39.4%	1.06×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	35.8%	38.4%	37.9%	1.02×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.1%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.5%	85.6%	86.1%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.5%	14.4%	13.9%	1.03×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.4%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.5%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	24.4%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Both score 1st half only	12.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.84

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.9%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.1%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.6%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	45.4%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.8%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.9%	26.6%	23.5%	1.13×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.1%	22.9%	26.8%	0.86×	4.36
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.35

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Sudtirol to score exactly 0	33.4%	33.8%	32.9%	1.03×	2.96
Sudtirol to score exactly 2	20.1%	22.3%	21.5%	1.03×	4.49
Sudtirol to score 3+	9.9%	8.6%	9.2%	0.93×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to score exactly 1	32.0%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.07
Pisa to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.5%	25.9%	1.02×	3.77
Pisa to score 3+	22.3%	23.3%	16.2%	1.44×	4.29
Pisa to score exactly 0	19.7%	18.8%	22.3%	0.84×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Pisa leading at HT	36.8%	39.0%	—	—	2.57
Sudtirol leading at HT	20.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa -1: 2	51.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Pisa -1: 1	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Pisa -1: X	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:1)	51.8%	51.3%	57.3%	0.90×	1.95
Pisa (0:1)	26.1%	27.0%	19.7%	1.37×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.1%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:2)	73.9%	75.7%	80.3%	0.94×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.1%	15.2%	13.1%	1.16×	6.57
Pisa (0:2)	11.0%	11.0%	6.7%	1.63×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:3)	89.0%	90.6%	93.3%	0.97×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.2%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.25
Pisa (0:3)	3.8%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	41.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol (0:4)	96.2%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.60
Pisa (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.78

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (1:0)	75.7%	78.5%	74.5%	1.05×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.5%	12.7%	15.7%	0.81×	7.86
Sudtirol (1:0)	9.8%	6.9%	10.0%	0.69×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (2:0)	90.2%	94.0%	90.0%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.9%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.66
Sudtirol (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.5%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
Halves equal	27.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to concede	66.6%	66.7%	67.1%	0.99×	1.50
Pisa clean sheet	33.4%	33.3%	32.9%	1.01×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa clean sheet in 1st half	64.5%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Pisa to concede in 1st half	35.5%	36.7%	—	—	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa clean sheet in 2nd half	51.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.90
Pisa to concede in 2nd half	48.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 6.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Pisa over 2.5 corners	75.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Pisa under 5.5 corners	70.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Pisa over 3.5 corners	59.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Pisa under 4.5 corners	56.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Pisa over 4.5 corners	43.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Pisa under 3.5 corners	40.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Pisa over 5.5 corners	29.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Pisa under 2.5 corners	24.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Pisa over 6.5 corners	18.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 3.5 goals	91.8%	92.2%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Pisa over 0.5 goals	80.3%	82.2%	77.7%	1.06×	1.22
Pisa under 2.5 goals	77.7%	77.8%	83.8%	0.93×	1.29
Pisa under 1.5 goals	51.8%	53.2%	58.0%	0.92×	1.88
Pisa over 1.5 goals	48.2%	46.8%	42.0%	1.12×	2.14
Pisa over 2.5 goals	22.3%	22.2%	16.2%	1.37×	4.50
Pisa under 0.5 goals	19.7%	17.8%	22.3%	0.80×	5.61
Pisa over 3.5 goals	8.2%	7.8%	4.1%	1.90×	12.83

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 1st half	84.5%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Pisa over 0.5 in 1st half	50.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Pisa under 0.5 in 1st half	49.8%	49.4%	—	—	2.02
Pisa over 1.5 in 1st half	15.5%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa scores more in 2nd half	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Pisa scores equally in both	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Pisa scores more in 1st half	26.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.0%	51.4%	55.5%	0.93×	1.94
Sudtirol (home no bet)	47.0%	48.6%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa even goals	51.9%	50.7%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Pisa odd goals	48.1%	49.3%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.3%	33.5%	—	—	2.98
HT 1-0	22.2%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	13.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	10.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	7.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 2-1	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.26
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.35

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa at HT / Pisa at FT	29.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Pisa at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Sudtirol at HT / Sudtirol at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Sudtirol at FT	9.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.42
Pisa at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.53
Sudtirol at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Sudtirol at HT / Pisa at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Pisa at HT / Sudtirol at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to score last	55.0%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Sudtirol to score last	37.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	8.0%	7.6%	—	—	13.18

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.0%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Pisa to lead by 1 at any time	63.4%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.1%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Sudtirol to lead by 1 at any time	42.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Pisa to lead by 2 at any time	32.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Sudtirol to lead by 2 at any time	14.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.39
Pisa to lead by 3 at any time	13.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.42
Sudtirol to lead by 3 at any time	4.1%	1.6%	—	—	61.28

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa most corners	51.2%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Sudtirol most corners	36.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	12.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.0%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.8%	72.3%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
2-5 goals	71.0%	72.3%	69.6%	1.04×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.0%	63.3%	66.3%	0.96×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.0%	48.4%	46.3%	1.05×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.8%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.3%	48.4%	44.0%	1.10×	2.07
1-2 goals	40.9%	43.6%	43.5%	1.00×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.1%	39.2%	38.7%	1.01×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.9%	30.2%	23.5%	1.28×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.2%	24.5%	21.2%	1.16×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.9%	14.8%	7.7%	1.92×	6.76
7+ goals	2.1%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa never behind	49.4%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Sudtirol never behind	28.6%	29.9%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.0%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.0%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	96.3%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	90.9%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.0%	87.6%	91.0%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.9%	77.3%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.0%	72.5%	75.2%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.1%	52.5%	47.6%	1.10×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	48.9%	47.5%	52.4%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.0%	27.5%	24.8%	1.11×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	23.1%	22.7%	26.8%	0.85×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	14.0%	12.4%	9.0%	1.38×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	3.7%	2.07×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.7%	92.4%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.5%	81.1%	89.3%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.9%	67.5%	64.0%	1.06×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.7%	61.9%	67.9%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.3%	38.1%	32.1%	1.19×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.1%	32.5%	36.0%	0.90×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.5%	18.9%	10.7%	1.77×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.3%	7.6%	3.9%	1.92×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	20.5%	—	—	4.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to score in both halves	82.9%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Pisa not to score in both halves	69.7%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Pisa to score in both halves	30.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
Sudtirol to score in both halves	17.1%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.9%	53.8%	53.9%	1.00×	1.86
Only Pisa scores	25.4%	26.0%	23.9%	1.09×	3.84
Only Sudtirol scores	11.8%	11.0%	13.3%	0.83×	9.07
Neither team scores	8.0%	7.1%	9.1%	0.79×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.8%	24.9%	25.8%	0.96×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	15.2%	17.4%	17.8%	0.98×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	17.4%	15.9%	1.09×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	8.0%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.6%	5.4%	1.42×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.8%	7.6%	3.7%	2.04×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.3%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.0%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
3+ goals in 1st half	10.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.4%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.6%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	21.0%	22.8%	—	—	4.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to win both halves	95.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Pisa not to win both halves	85.2%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Pisa to win both halves	14.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Sudtirol to win both halves	5.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.29

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to win either half	61.6%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Sudtirol to win neither half	60.6%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Sudtirol to win either half	39.4%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
Pisa to win neither half	38.4%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sudtirol not to win to nil	88.2%	88.1%	86.7%	1.02×	1.14
Pisa not to win to nil	74.6%	75.3%	76.1%	0.99×	1.33
Pisa to win to nil	25.4%	24.7%	23.9%	1.03×	4.05
Sudtirol to win to nil	11.8%	11.9%	13.3%	0.89×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.5%	27.9%	31.9%	0.87×	3.59
Pisa by 1	22.1%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Pisa by 2	15.1%	17.0%	13.1%	1.30×	5.87
Sudtirol by 1	14.5%	11.8%	15.7%	0.75×	8.50
Pisa by 3+	11.0%	11.8%	6.7%	1.75×	8.51
Sudtirol by 2	6.9%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Sudtirol by 3+	2.9%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.88