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Portsmouth v Cardiff City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Portsmouth win
34.2%
Draw
26.5%
Cardiff City win
39.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.48–1.59 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.47–1.28 1-1 13% 52% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to win 39.3% 37.2% 29.0% 1.28× 2.69
Portsmouth to win 34.2% 29.1% 43.5% 0.67× 3.43
Draw 26.5% 27.6% 27.6% 1.00× 3.63
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City & both teams score 22.4% 22.6% 13.8% 1.63× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 20.6% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.43
Portsmouth & both teams score 19.8% 17.8% 20.2% 0.88× 5.63
Cardiff City & not both score 16.9% 17.7% 15.3% 1.16× 5.64
Portsmouth & not both score 14.4% 12.2% 23.4% 0.52× 8.21
Draw & not both score 5.9% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.71
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City & over 1.5 33.2% 33.2% 21.4% 1.55× 3.02
Portsmouth & over 1.5 28.6% 25.5% 32.5% 0.79× 3.92
Cardiff City & over 2.5 27.3% 25.5% 16.2% 1.58× 3.92
Cardiff City & under 3.5 23.8% 21.5% 22.3% 0.96× 4.65
Portsmouth & over 2.5 23.6% 21.5% 26.4% 0.82× 4.65
Portsmouth & under 3.5 21.2% 21.5% 32.5% 0.66× 4.65
Draw & over 1.5 20.6% 21.5% 20.4% 1.06× 4.65
Draw & under 2.5 18.1% 17.6% 21.6% 0.81× 5.69
Draw & under 3.5 18.1% 17.6% 21.6% 0.81× 5.69
Cardiff City & over 3.5 15.5% 17.6% 6.8% 2.59× 5.70
Portsmouth & over 3.5 13.0% 12.7% 11.1% 1.15× 7.86
Cardiff City & under 2.5 12.0% 12.7% 13.0% 0.98× 7.86
Portsmouth & under 2.5 10.6% 12.7% 17.2% 0.74× 7.87
Draw & over 2.5 8.4% 7.5% 6.0% 1.24× 13.40
Draw & over 3.5 8.4% 7.5% 6.0% 1.24× 13.40
Cardiff City & under 1.5 6.1% 7.5% 7.7% 0.96× 13.42
Draw & under 1.5 5.9% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.42
Portsmouth & under 1.5 5.6% 7.5% 11.1% 0.67× 13.42
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (1UP) 58.0% 62.3% 1.61
Portsmouth (1UP) 53.7% 52.5% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (2UP) 39.3% 40.6% 2.46
Portsmouth (2UP) 34.2% 30.7% 3.26
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to win 2nd half 36.3% 37.5% 2.67
2nd half drawn 33.7% 33.8% 2.96
Portsmouth to win 2nd half 30.0% 33.7% 2.97
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (+2.5) 93.7% 92.3% 91.9% 1.00× 1.08
Cardiff City (+1.5) 83.3% 82.3% 80.7% 1.02× 1.22
Cardiff City (+0.5) 65.8% 68.9% 56.5% 1.22× 1.45
Portsmouth (+0.5) 60.7% 64.0% 71.0% 0.90× 1.56
Cardiff City (-0.5) 39.3% 36.0% 29.0% 1.24× 2.78
Portsmouth (-0.5) 34.2% 31.1% 43.5% 0.72× 3.22
Portsmouth (-1.5) 16.7% 17.7% 19.3% 0.91× 5.66
Portsmouth (-2.5) 6.3% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 13.05
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to concede 77.2% 76.0% 77.5% 0.98× 1.32
Cardiff City clean sheet 22.8% 24.0% 22.5% 1.06× 4.17
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City clean sheet in 1st half 53.0% 54.8% 1.83
Cardiff City to concede in 1st half 47.0% 45.2% 2.21
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City under 3.5 goals 92.2% 92.6% 97.8% 0.95× 1.08
Cardiff City over 0.5 goals 79.7% 75.4% 69.4% 1.09× 1.33
Cardiff City under 2.5 goals 78.5% 75.3% 90.6% 0.83× 1.33
Cardiff City under 1.5 goals 52.7% 51.9% 69.9% 0.74× 1.93
Cardiff City over 1.5 goals 47.3% 48.1% 30.1% 1.60× 2.08
Cardiff City over 2.5 goals 21.5% 24.7% 9.5% 2.61× 4.05
Cardiff City under 0.5 goals 20.3% 24.6% 30.6% 0.81× 4.06
Cardiff City over 3.5 goals 7.8% 7.4% 2.2% 3.30× 13.58
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 1st half 86.6% 87.5% 1.14
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 1st half 52.9% 50.9% 1.96
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 1st half 47.1% 49.1% 2.04
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 1st half 13.4% 12.5% 8.03
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (away no bet) 56.3% 58.9% 61.2% 0.96× 1.70
Draw (away no bet) 43.7% 41.1% 38.8% 1.06× 2.43
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City even goals 52.1% 52.4% 52.6% 1.00× 1.91
Cardiff City odd goals 47.9% 47.6% 47.4% 1.00× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.5% 81.6% 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.5% 18.4% 5.44
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 71.2% 71.2% 1.41
Both halves under 1.5 goals 28.8% 28.8% 3.47
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 61.6% 61.3% 1.63
Cardiff City to score 2+ in a row 37.2% 37.3% 2.68
Portsmouth to score 2+ in a row 33.2% 33.9% 2.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 23.2% 21.8% 4.59
Cardiff City to score 3+ in a row 13.0% 12.2% 8.19
Portsmouth to score 3+ in a row 10.7% 12.2% 8.23
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.2% 11.6% 14.4% 0.80× 8.63
1-2 8.7% 7.3% 7.9% 0.92× 13.74
2-1 8.1% 7.3% 11.4% 0.64× 13.74
2-2 6.4% 7.3% 5.2% 1.39× 13.75
0-0 5.9% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.75
0-1 6.1% 7.3% 7.7% 0.94× 13.75
0-2 5.9% 7.3% 5.3% 1.37× 13.75
1-0 5.6% 7.3% 11.1% 0.66× 13.75
2-0 5.1% 7.3% 6.2% 1.18× 13.76
1-3 4.6% 1.8% 3.1% 0.58× 55.39
3-1 4.0% 1.8% 4.3% 0.42× 55.41
Any other score 4.0% 1.8% 2.9% 0.62× 55.41
0-3 3.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.11× 55.43
2-3 3.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.11× 55.42
3-0 2.5% 1.8% 4.0% 0.45× 55.45
3-2 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.00× 55.43
0-4 1.2% 1.8% 0.4% 4.20× 55.48
1-4 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 3.00× 55.46
2-4 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 6.99× 55.47
3-3 1.7% 1.8% 0.9% 2.10× 55.47
4-1 1.5% 1.8% 0.9% 2.10× 55.47
3-4 0.7% 1.8% 0.3% 6.99× 55.49
4-0 0.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.05× 55.49
4-2 1.2% 1.8% 0.8% 2.33× 55.48
4-3 0.6% 1.8% 0.2% 10.49× 55.49
4-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 20.97× 55.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City leading at HT (DNB) 50.1% 54.9% 1.82
Portsmouth leading at HT (DNB) 49.9% 45.1% 2.22
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth or Cardiff City (12) 73.5% 72.4% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Cardiff City or draw (X2) 65.8% 70.9% 56.5% 1.25× 1.41
Portsmouth or draw (1X) 60.7% 62.8% 71.0% 0.89× 1.59
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City or draw at HT 70.6% 71.4% 1.40
Portsmouth or draw at HT 70.4% 71.4% 1.40
Portsmouth or Cardiff City at HT 59.0% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City or draw (1UP) 65.8% 74.9% 1.34
Portsmouth or draw (1UP) 60.7% 67.5% 1.48
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City or draw in 2nd half 70.0% 66.3% 1.51
Portsmouth or Cardiff City in 2nd half 66.3% 66.2% 1.51
Portsmouth or draw in 2nd half 63.7% 62.5% 1.60
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.4% 58.1% 1.72
Neither half drawn 40.6% 41.9% 2.39
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (DNB) 53.5% 52.7% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
Portsmouth (DNB) 46.5% 47.3% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to score first 48.8% 46.3% 2.16
Portsmouth to score first 45.2% 46.0% 2.17
No goal scored 5.9% 6.2% 16.08
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.8% 57.5% 54.2% 1.06× 1.74
Not both teams to score 37.2% 42.5% 45.8% 0.93× 2.35
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 50.6% 46.8% 39.9% 1.17× 2.14
Not both score & under 2.5 28.5% 31.5% 37.3% 0.85× 3.17
Both score & under 2.5 12.2% 11.7% 14.4% 0.81× 8.53
Not both score & over 2.5 8.7% 8.7% 8.6% 1.02× 11.45
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 79.4% 83.9% 89.0% 0.94× 1.19
Both teams to score 2+ 20.6% 16.1% 11.0% 1.47× 6.21
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 64.5% 65.1% 1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half 35.5% 34.9% 2.86
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 49.9% 54.9% 1.82
Both score 2nd half only 27.7% 24.8% 4.04
Both score 1st half only 14.6% 11.6% 8.62
Both score in both halves 7.8% 6.5% 15.37
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 77.6% 79.8% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 22.4% 20.2% 4.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.7% 62.9% 1.59
A half without a goal 39.3% 37.1% 2.70
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.5% 45.9% 50.4% 0.91× 2.18
4-6 goals 33.1% 31.6% 22.4% 1.41× 3.16
0-1 goals 17.6% 20.7% 25.9% 0.80× 4.83
7+ goals 3.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.43× 50.81
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to score exactly 1 32.4% 33.2% 39.4% 0.84× 3.01
Cardiff City to score exactly 2 25.8% 27.0% 20.7% 1.31× 3.70
Cardiff City to score 3+ 21.5% 24.0% 9.5% 2.53× 4.18
Cardiff City to score exactly 0 20.3% 23.9% 30.6% 0.78× 4.18
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to score exactly 1 33.7% 30.6% 36.9% 0.83× 3.27
Portsmouth to score exactly 2 24.9% 23.0% 24.6% 0.94× 4.35
Portsmouth to score exactly 0 22.8% 23.0% 22.5% 1.02× 4.36
Portsmouth to score 3+ 18.5% 18.5% 16.2% 1.15× 5.40
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.0% 41.8% 2.40
Cardiff City leading at HT 29.6% 28.6% 3.49
Portsmouth leading at HT 29.4% 28.6% 3.49
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City -1: 1 60.7% 60.6% 1.65
Cardiff City -1: 2 20.3% 23.9% 4.18
Cardiff City -1: X 19.0% 19.0% 5.27
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (0:1) 65.8% 69.7% 56.5% 1.23× 1.44
Draw (0:1) 17.5% 18.3% 24.2% 0.75× 5.47
Portsmouth (0:1) 16.7% 18.3% 19.3% 0.94× 5.48
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (0:2) 83.3% 83.6% 80.7% 1.04× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 10.4% 11.7% 11.3% 1.03× 8.57
Portsmouth (0:2) 6.3% 7.1% 8.1% 0.89× 13.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (0:3) 93.7% 92.6% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.4% 2.3% 4.8% 0.49× 42.65
Portsmouth (0:3) 2.0% 2.3% 3.4% 0.69× 43.16
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (0:4) 98.0% 98.1% 96.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 2.4% 0.52× 80.60
Portsmouth (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.20× 81.09
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (1:0) 60.7% 65.0% 71.0% 0.92× 1.54
Cardiff City (1:0) 20.3% 22.9% 11.9% 1.93× 4.38
Draw (1:0) 19.0% 16.4% 17.3% 0.95× 6.10
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth (2:0) 79.7% 78.0% 88.1% 0.88× 1.28
Draw (2:0) 12.1% 12.1% 8.7% 1.39× 8.27
Cardiff City (2:0) 8.2% 6.6% 3.3% 2.03× 15.10
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.7% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 25.0% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth to concede 79.7% 77.5% 69.4% 1.12× 1.29
Portsmouth clean sheet 20.3% 22.6% 30.6% 0.74× 4.44
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth clean sheet in 1st half 52.9% 50.9% 1.96
Portsmouth to concede in 1st half 47.1% 49.1% 2.04
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth under 3.5 goals 93.7% 92.1% 94.8% 0.97× 1.09
Portsmouth under 2.5 goals 81.5% 82.4% 83.8% 0.98× 1.21
Portsmouth over 0.5 goals 77.2% 76.7% 77.5% 0.99× 1.30
Portsmouth under 1.5 goals 56.6% 55.7% 59.4% 0.94× 1.80
Portsmouth over 1.5 goals 43.4% 44.3% 40.6% 1.09× 2.26
Portsmouth under 0.5 goals 22.8% 23.3% 22.5% 1.03× 4.30
Portsmouth over 2.5 goals 18.5% 17.6% 16.2% 1.09× 5.68
Portsmouth over 3.5 goals 6.3% 7.9% 5.2% 1.53× 12.69
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth under 1.5 in 1st half 86.6% 87.8% 1.14
Portsmouth under 0.5 in 1st half 53.0% 54.7% 1.83
Portsmouth over 0.5 in 1st half 47.0% 45.3% 2.21
Portsmouth over 1.5 in 1st half 13.4% 12.2% 8.17
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City (home no bet) 59.7% 54.6% 51.3% 1.06× 1.83
Draw (home no bet) 40.3% 45.4% 48.7% 0.93× 2.20
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth even goals 52.6% 50.3% 50.5% 0.99× 1.99
Portsmouth odd goals 47.4% 49.7% 49.5% 1.01× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.2% 28.1% 3.56
HT 0-1 17.6% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-0 17.6% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-1 11.6% 11.2% 8.94
HT 0-2 5.7% 7.7% 13.03
HT 2-0 5.6% 7.7% 13.03
Any other HT score 5.3% 7.7% 13.03
HT 1-2 3.6% 2.5% 39.79
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.5% 39.79
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.5% 39.93
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City at HT / Cardiff City at FT 22.0% 21.4% 4.67
Portsmouth at HT / Portsmouth at FT 20.2% 21.4% 4.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.3% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Cardiff City at FT 14.1% 12.0% 8.34
Draw at HT / Portsmouth at FT 11.6% 12.0% 8.36
Portsmouth at HT / Draw at FT 6.0% 6.6% 15.25
Cardiff City at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.6% 15.27
Portsmouth at HT / Cardiff City at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.38
Cardiff City at HT / Portsmouth at FT 2.4% 3.4% 29.41
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to score last 48.9% 49.2% 2.04
Portsmouth to score last 45.2% 48.9% 2.04
No goal scored 5.9% 6.2% 16.08
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.1% 93.8% 1.07
Cardiff City to lead by 1 at any time 58.0% 59.6% 1.68
Portsmouth to lead by 1 at any time 53.7% 51.0% 1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.1% 50.9% 1.97
Cardiff City to lead by 2 at any time 27.7% 26.0% 3.85
Portsmouth to lead by 2 at any time 23.8% 19.8% 5.04
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.1% 17.7% 5.65
Cardiff City to lead by 3 at any time 10.7% 11.3% 8.85
Portsmouth to lead by 3 at any time 8.5% 7.1% 14.15
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.0% 81.6% 88.8% 0.92× 1.23
2-6 goals 78.7% 78.9% 72.8% 1.08× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.4% 73.7% 83.4% 0.88× 1.36
2-5 goals 73.3% 73.6% 70.2% 1.05× 1.36
2-4 goals 62.7% 62.3% 64.8% 0.96× 1.61
1-3 goals 57.2% 58.7% 69.1% 0.85× 1.70
3-6 goals 55.5% 58.7% 47.1% 1.25× 1.70
3-5 goals 50.1% 52.3% 44.5% 1.17× 1.91
2-3 goals 45.5% 48.0% 50.4% 0.95× 2.08
3-4 goals 39.6% 38.9% 39.1% 0.99× 2.57
1-2 goals 34.8% 34.2% 44.4% 0.77× 2.93
4-6 goals 33.1% 34.1% 22.4% 1.52× 2.93
4-5 goals 27.7% 30.5% 19.8% 1.54× 3.28
5-6 goals 16.0% 18.1% 8.1% 2.24× 5.54
7+ goals 3.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.49× 48.87
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City never behind 40.4% 50.6% 1.98
Portsmouth never behind 36.1% 45.3% 2.21
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.3% 50.1% 49.4% 1.01× 2.00
Even number of goals 52.7% 49.9% 50.6% 0.99× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.4% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.6% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.1% 93.0% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 90.9% 92.9% 96.0% 0.97× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 82.4% 81.0% 74.1% 1.09× 1.24
Under 4.5 goals 80.3% 80.9% 90.6% 0.89× 1.24
Under 3.5 goals 63.1% 61.6% 76.3% 0.81× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.2% 57.8% 48.4% 1.19× 1.73
Under 2.5 goals 40.8% 42.2% 51.6% 0.82× 2.37
Over 3.5 goals 36.9% 38.4% 23.7% 1.62× 2.60
Over 4.5 goals 19.7% 19.1% 9.4% 2.04× 5.24
Under 1.5 goals 17.6% 19.0% 25.9% 0.73× 5.25
Over 5.5 goals 9.1% 7.1% 4.0% 1.79× 14.14
Under 0.5 goals 5.9% 7.0% 7.3% 0.96× 14.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.1% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.8% 88.2% 95.8% 0.92× 1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.1% 76.5% 65.1% 1.18× 1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.2% 76.5% 89.1% 0.86× 1.31
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.5% 53.1% 68.5% 0.77× 1.88
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.5% 46.9% 31.5% 1.49× 2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 23.8% 23.5% 10.9% 2.15× 4.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.9% 23.5% 34.9% 0.67× 4.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.2% 11.8% 4.2% 2.83× 8.46
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.9% 2.8% 1.4% 1.98× 35.84
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.3% 88.0% 1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.8% 72.4% 1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half 63.4% 63.1% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.6% 36.9% 2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.2% 27.6% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.7% 12.0% 8.35
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.0% 82.1% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.1% 76.3% 1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.9% 51.8% 1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.1% 48.2% 2.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.9% 23.7% 4.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.0% 17.9% 5.58
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth not to score in both halves 73.2% 70.4% 1.42
Cardiff City not to score in both halves 71.0% 70.3% 1.42
Cardiff City to score in both halves 29.0% 29.7% 3.37
Portsmouth to score in both halves 26.8% 29.6% 3.38
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.8% 58.2% 54.2% 1.07× 1.72
Only Cardiff City scores 16.9% 16.4% 15.3% 1.07× 6.11
Only Portsmouth scores 14.4% 10.9% 23.4% 0.46× 9.21
Neither team scores 5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 0.91× 15.08
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.2% 21.6% 25.8% 0.84× 4.64
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 21.5% 24.7% 0.87× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 17.2% 18.6% 14.4% 1.29× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 11.7% 12.4% 18.7% 0.66× 8.09
Exactly 5 goals 10.6% 12.3% 5.5% 2.24× 8.10
6 or more goals 9.1% 7.6% 4.0% 1.93× 13.11
Exactly 0 goals 5.9% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.16
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.1% 47.6% 2.10
1 goal in 2nd half 28.9% 28.5% 3.51
No goals in 2nd half 17.0% 18.3% 5.46
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth not to win both halves 91.0% 93.3% 1.07
Cardiff City not to win both halves 89.1% 87.6% 1.14
Cardiff City to win both halves 10.9% 12.4% 8.07
Portsmouth to win both halves 9.0% 6.7% 14.99
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cardiff City to win either half 54.9% 54.0% 1.85
Portsmouth to win either half 50.4% 53.9% 1.86
Portsmouth to win neither half 49.6% 46.1% 2.17
Cardiff City to win neither half 45.1% 46.0% 2.18
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Portsmouth not to win to nil 85.6% 88.2% 76.6% 1.15× 1.13
Cardiff City not to win to nil 83.1% 83.3% 84.7% 0.98× 1.20
Cardiff City to win to nil 16.9% 16.7% 15.3% 1.09× 5.98
Portsmouth to win to nil 14.4% 11.8% 23.4% 0.50× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.5% 28.0% 27.6% 1.02× 3.57
Cardiff City by 1 19.0% 17.0% 17.3% 0.98× 5.88
Portsmouth by 1 17.5% 17.0% 24.2% 0.70× 5.89
Cardiff City by 2 12.1% 11.9% 8.7% 1.37× 8.44
Portsmouth by 2 10.4% 11.8% 11.3% 1.04× 8.45
Cardiff City by 3+ 8.2% 7.1% 3.3% 2.17× 14.09
Portsmouth by 3+ 6.3% 7.1% 8.1% 0.88× 14.13
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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