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Pyramids FC v Gor Mahia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · CAF-Champions League · 2627

CAF Champions League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Pyramids FC win
67.7%
model 66.4%
Draw
21.8%
model 21.0%
Gor Mahia win
10.4%
model 12.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.4%
  2. 2-0 13.7%
  3. 1-1 9.8%
  4. 2-1 9.3%
  5. 3-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.547.6% Under 2.552.4%
BTTS yes41.9% BTTS no58.1%
Pyramids FC 1+85.0% Pyramids FC 2+56.6%
Gor Mahia 1+49.2% Gor Mahia 2+14.8%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.68. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
19/100
Data quality
20/100
★ Best pick
Pyramids FC clean sheet
Home clean sheet · usually 33%
54.1% fair odds 1.85
strong signal · 2976 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time · usually 82%
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 638 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Pyramids FC have an estimated 67.7% win probability, against 21.8% for the draw and 10.4% for Gor Mahia. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.90 for Pyramids FC and 0.68 for Gor Mahia.

Why Pyramids FC

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 33% in this competition.

Why Gor Mahia can win

Nothing in the data singles out Gor Mahia.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Pyramids FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Gor Mahia, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Pyramids FC: 61% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 7.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Gor Mahia: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Pyramids FC are the model's most likely outcome at 67.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.4%. Confidence 19/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.66–0.84 0% 0% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC to win 66.4% 66.2% 44.8% 1.48× 1.51
Draw 21.0% 22.9% 26.1% 0.88× 4.37
Gor Mahia to win 12.5% 13.0% 29.1% 0.45× 7.70
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC & not both score 43.1% 42.1% 24.9% 1.69× 2.38
Pyramids FC & both teams score 23.3% 21.9% 19.9% 1.10× 4.58
Draw & both teams score 13.4% 12.6% 18.4% 0.69× 7.92
Draw & not both score 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 12.92
Gor Mahia & not both score 7.4% 7.7% 15.2% 0.51× 12.92
Gor Mahia & both teams score 5.2% 7.7% 13.9% 0.56× 12.92
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC & over 1.5 52.0% 51.5% 33.7% 1.53× 1.94
Pyramids FC & under 3.5 46.1% 47.3% 31.4% 1.51× 2.11
Pyramids FC & over 2.5 38.3% 36.8% 26.3% 1.40× 2.72
Pyramids FC & under 2.5 28.1% 26.5% 18.5% 1.43× 3.78
Pyramids FC & over 3.5 20.3% 21.9% 13.4% 1.63× 4.57
Draw & under 2.5 17.4% 17.7% 19.9% 0.89× 5.66
Draw & under 3.5 17.4% 17.7% 19.9% 0.89× 5.66
Pyramids FC & under 1.5 14.4% 12.4% 11.1% 1.12× 8.05
Draw & over 1.5 13.4% 12.4% 18.4% 0.67× 8.05
Gor Mahia & under 3.5 10.6% 12.4% 21.1% 0.59× 8.05
Draw & under 1.5 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 0.98× 13.17
Gor Mahia & over 1.5 7.4% 7.6% 21.4% 0.35× 13.17
Gor Mahia & under 2.5 6.9% 7.6% 12.0% 0.63× 13.17
Gor Mahia & under 1.5 5.2% 7.6% 7.6% 0.99× 13.17
Gor Mahia & over 2.5 5.6% 7.6% 17.1% 0.45× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 3.6% 4.3% 6.3% 0.68× 23.48
Draw & over 3.5 3.6% 4.3% 6.3% 0.68× 23.48
Gor Mahia & over 3.5 1.9% 4.3% 8.0% 0.53× 23.49
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (1UP) 75.6% 83.4% 60.0% 1.39× 1.20
Gor Mahia (1UP) 27.0% 23.7% 50.3% 0.47× 4.23
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (2UP) 66.4% 68.0% 45.4% 1.50× 1.47
Gor Mahia (2UP) 12.5% 14.8% 34.1% 0.43× 6.77
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC to win 2nd half 52.5% 51.6% 37.7% 1.37× 1.94
2nd half drawn 33.6% 31.8% 32.6% 0.97× 3.15
Gor Mahia to win 2nd half 13.8% 14.1% 29.7% 0.48× 7.08
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (+0.5) 87.5% 87.9% 70.9% 1.24× 1.14
Gor Mahia (+2.5) 80.1% 83.1% 90.8% 0.92× 1.20
Pyramids FC (-0.5) 66.4% 67.9% 44.8% 1.52× 1.47
Gor Mahia (+1.5) 59.5% 58.6% 78.2% 0.75× 1.71
Pyramids FC (-1.5) 40.5% 41.4% 21.8% 1.90× 2.42
Gor Mahia (+0.5) 33.6% 32.1% 55.2% 0.58× 3.12
Pyramids FC (-2.5) 19.9% 16.9% 9.2% 1.83× 5.93
Gor Mahia (-0.5) 12.5% 12.1% 29.1% 0.42× 8.24
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia to concede 85.0% 88.6% 77.1% 1.15× 1.13
Gor Mahia clean sheet 15.0% 11.4% 22.9% 0.50× 8.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia to concede in 1st half 55.8% 55.8% 48.3% 1.16× 1.79
Gor Mahia clean sheet in 1st half 44.2% 44.2% 51.7% 0.85× 2.26
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.6% 96.4% 1.01× 1.02
Gor Mahia under 2.5 goals 96.8% 97.6% 88.3% 1.11× 1.03
Gor Mahia under 1.5 goals 85.2% 87.6% 67.9% 1.29× 1.14
Gor Mahia under 0.5 goals 50.7% 54.1% 32.7% 1.66× 1.85
Gor Mahia over 0.5 goals 49.3% 45.9% 67.3% 0.68× 2.18
Gor Mahia over 1.5 goals 14.8% 12.4% 32.1% 0.39× 8.06
Gor Mahia over 2.5 goals 3.2% 2.4% 11.7% 0.20× 41.81
Gor Mahia over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.4% 3.6% 0.66× 41.91
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia under 1.5 in 1st half 96.9% 96.1% 89.5% 1.07× 1.04
Gor Mahia under 0.5 in 1st half 76.2% 74.6% 59.1% 1.26× 1.34
Gor Mahia over 0.5 in 1st half 23.8% 25.4% 40.9% 0.62× 3.94
Gor Mahia over 1.5 in 1st half 3.1% 3.9% 10.5% 0.37× 25.51
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (away no bet) 76.0% 74.5% 63.1% 1.18× 1.34
Draw (away no bet) 24.0% 25.5% 36.9% 0.69× 3.93
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia even goals 62.9% 60.5% 55.8% 1.08× 1.65
Gor Mahia odd goals 37.1% 39.5% 44.2% 0.89× 2.53
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.0% 87.6% 82.8% 1.06× 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.0% 12.4% 17.2% 0.72× 8.05
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.5% 62.6% 66.1% 0.95× 1.60
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.5% 37.4% 33.9% 1.10× 2.68
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.5% 58.2% 58.6% 0.99× 1.72
Pyramids FC to score 2+ in a row 51.1% 52.9% 37.0% 1.43× 1.89
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.0% 25.6% 22.9% 1.12× 3.90
Pyramids FC to score 3+ in a row 23.6% 21.3% 14.2% 1.50× 4.69
Gor Mahia to score 2+ in a row 9.7% 7.5% 28.6% 0.26× 13.31
Gor Mahia to score 3+ in a row 1.5% 3.1% 9.1% 0.35× 31.92
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 14.4% 11.6% 11.1% 1.05× 8.62
2-0 13.7% 11.6% 7.4% 1.57× 8.62
1-1 9.8% 7.4% 12.1% 0.61× 13.46
2-1 9.3% 7.4% 9.0% 0.83× 13.46
0-0 7.6% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.46
3-0 8.7% 7.4% 4.0% 1.88× 13.46
0-1 5.2% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.46
3-1 5.9% 7.4% 4.1% 1.80× 13.46
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.69× 60.47
4-0 4.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.03× 60.45
4-1 2.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 60.46
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 60.46
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.55× 60.47
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 15.76× 60.47
Any other score 4.5% 1.7% 3.3% 0.50× 60.45
0-2 1.7% 1.7% 4.4% 0.38× 60.46
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.79× 60.46
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 60.47
1-2 3.3% 1.7% 7.0% 0.24× 60.45
1-3 0.8% 1.7% 2.5% 0.67× 60.46
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 60.47
2-2 3.2% 1.7% 5.2% 0.32× 60.45
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 60.46
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.15× 60.47
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 2.6% 0.63× 60.46
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.64× 60.46
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC leading at HT (DNB) 80.0% 78.5% 56.8% 1.38× 1.27
Gor Mahia leading at HT (DNB) 20.0% 21.5% 43.2% 0.50× 4.65
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC or draw (1X) 87.5% 87.0% 70.9% 1.23× 1.15
Pyramids FC or Gor Mahia (12) 79.0% 77.1% 73.9% 1.04× 1.30
Gor Mahia or draw (X2) 33.6% 33.8% 55.2% 0.61× 2.96
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC or draw at HT 88.3% 88.7% 74.2% 1.20× 1.13
Pyramids FC or Gor Mahia at HT 58.4% 57.3% 59.7% 0.96× 1.75
Gor Mahia or draw at HT 53.2% 54.2% 66.0% 0.82× 1.84
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC or draw (1UP) 87.5% 91.3% 74.2% 1.23× 1.10
Gor Mahia or draw (1UP) 33.6% 40.3% 63.8% 0.63× 2.48
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC or draw in 2nd half 86.2% 85.9% 70.3% 1.22× 1.16
Pyramids FC or Gor Mahia in 2nd half 66.4% 68.2% 67.4% 1.01× 1.47
Gor Mahia or draw in 2nd half 47.5% 48.4% 62.3% 0.78× 2.07
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.2% 59.3% 58.8% 1.01× 1.69
Neither half drawn 38.8% 40.7% 41.2% 0.99× 2.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (DNB) 84.1% 82.3% 60.6% 1.36× 1.22
Gor Mahia (DNB) 15.9% 17.7% 39.4% 0.45× 5.64
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC to score first 68.1% 73.5% 51.4% 1.43× 1.36
Gor Mahia to score first 24.3% 17.2% 42.8% 0.40× 5.81
No goal scored 7.6% 6.7% 5.9% 1.14× 14.95
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.1% 55.6% 47.8% 1.16× 1.80
Both teams to score 41.9% 44.4% 52.2% 0.85× 2.25
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 42.6% 41.9% 38.2% 1.10× 2.39
Both score & over 2.5 32.1% 34.5% 40.1% 0.86× 2.90
Not both score & over 2.5 15.5% 18.6% 9.6% 1.93× 5.38
Both score & under 2.5 9.8% 7.9% 12.1% 0.65× 12.64
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.6% 90.0% 86.1% 1.05× 1.11
Both teams to score 2+ 8.4% 10.0% 13.9% 0.72× 10.01
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.9% 73.6% 70.3% 1.05× 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.1% 26.4% 29.7% 0.89× 3.79
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.6% 65.0% 57.9% 1.12× 1.54
Both score 2nd half only 19.2% 18.6% 23.7% 0.79× 5.37
Both score 1st half only 10.3% 11.9% 12.4% 0.96× 8.38
Both score in both halves 2.9% 4.8% 6.0% 0.81× 20.70
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.7% 83.9% 81.6% 1.03× 1.19
Both teams to score by HT 13.3% 16.1% 18.4% 0.88× 6.20
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.4% 52.9% 59.0% 0.90× 1.89
A half without a goal 48.6% 47.1% 41.0% 1.15× 2.12
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 46.8% 45.9% 1.02× 2.14
0-1 goals 27.2% 27.1% 26.5% 1.02× 3.70
4-6 goals 24.3% 22.9% 25.7% 0.89× 4.36
7+ goals 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 0.88× 55.75
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia to score exactly 0 50.7% 51.0% 32.7% 1.56× 1.96
Gor Mahia to score exactly 1 34.4% 32.8% 35.3% 0.93× 3.05
Gor Mahia to score exactly 2 11.7% 13.0% 20.4% 0.64× 7.72
Gor Mahia to score 3+ 3.2% 3.9% 11.7% 0.34× 25.37
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC to score 3+ 29.6% 26.5% 18.9% 1.40× 3.77
Pyramids FC to score exactly 1 28.4% 26.5% 33.8% 0.78× 3.77
Pyramids FC to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 24.3% 1.09× 3.77
Pyramids FC to score exactly 0 15.0% 13.1% 22.9% 0.57× 7.64
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC leading at HT 46.8% 45.8% 34.0% 1.35× 2.19
Draw at HT 41.6% 42.7% 40.3% 1.06× 2.34
Gor Mahia leading at HT 11.7% 11.3% 25.8% 0.44× 8.86
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC -1: 1 40.5% 41.2% 2.43
Pyramids FC -1: 2 33.6% 30.0% 3.34
Pyramids FC -1: X 25.9% 27.5% 3.64
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (0:1) 40.5% 40.9% 21.8% 1.88× 2.45
Gor Mahia (0:1) 33.6% 30.5% 55.2% 0.55× 3.28
Draw (0:1) 25.9% 27.9% 23.0% 1.21× 3.58
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia (0:2) 59.5% 59.1% 78.2% 0.76× 1.69
Draw (0:2) 20.6% 21.3% 12.5% 1.70× 4.69
Pyramids FC (0:2) 19.9% 15.9% 9.2% 1.72× 6.30
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia (0:3) 80.1% 85.4% 90.8% 0.94× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 11.9% 11.6% 5.8% 2.01× 8.62
Pyramids FC (0:3) 8.0% 6.3% 3.5% 1.81× 15.91
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia (0:4) 92.0% 93.8% 96.5% 0.97× 1.07
Draw (0:4) 5.3% 6.3% 2.3% 2.72× 15.80
Pyramids FC (0:4) 2.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.12× 77.91
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (1:0) 87.5% 86.8% 70.9% 1.22× 1.15
Draw (1:0) 9.3% 7.0% 17.1% 0.41× 14.22
Gor Mahia (1:0) 3.3% 3.2% 12.0% 0.27× 31.22
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC (2:0) 96.7% 96.9% 88.0% 1.10× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.6% 2.3% 7.4% 0.31× 42.96
Gor Mahia (2:0) 0.6% 2.3% 4.6% 0.51× 43.04
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.4% 48.8% 48.5% 1.01× 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.7% 26.1% 26.3% 0.99× 3.83
Halves equal 25.9% 26.1% 25.2% 1.04× 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC clean sheet 50.7% 54.1% 32.7% 1.66× 1.85
Pyramids FC to concede 49.3% 45.9% 67.3% 0.68× 2.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC clean sheet in 1st half 76.2% 76.1% 59.1% 1.29× 1.31
Pyramids FC to concede in 1st half 23.8% 23.9% 40.9% 0.58× 4.19
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC under 3.5 goals 87.5% 87.7% 93.2% 0.94× 1.14
Pyramids FC over 0.5 goals 85.0% 87.6% 77.1% 1.14× 1.14
Pyramids FC under 2.5 goals 70.4% 74.4% 81.1% 0.92× 1.34
Pyramids FC over 1.5 goals 56.6% 57.5% 43.3% 1.33× 1.74
Pyramids FC under 1.5 goals 43.4% 42.5% 56.7% 0.75× 2.36
Pyramids FC over 2.5 goals 29.6% 25.6% 18.9% 1.35× 3.91
Pyramids FC under 0.5 goals 15.0% 12.4% 22.9% 0.54× 8.09
Pyramids FC over 3.5 goals 12.5% 12.3% 6.8% 1.81× 8.10
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC under 1.5 in 1st half 80.3% 81.2% 85.8% 0.95× 1.23
Pyramids FC over 0.5 in 1st half 55.8% 55.8% 48.3% 1.16× 1.79
Pyramids FC under 0.5 in 1st half 44.2% 44.2% 51.7% 0.85× 2.26
Pyramids FC over 1.5 in 1st half 19.7% 18.8% 14.2% 1.33× 5.32
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 62.6% 60.1% 47.3% 1.27× 1.66
Gor Mahia (home no bet) 37.4% 39.9% 52.7% 0.76× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC even goals 51.1% 50.8% 52.3% 0.97× 1.97
Pyramids FC odd goals 48.9% 49.2% 47.7% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.7% 31.8% 29.2% 1.09× 3.15
HT 1-0 27.5% 26.3% 20.8% 1.27× 3.80
HT 2-0 11.2% 11.1% 7.1% 1.55× 9.03
HT 0-1 9.1% 7.8% 16.4% 0.48× 12.83
HT 1-1 7.5% 7.8% 10.2% 0.76× 12.85
Any other HT score 5.2% 7.8% 4.7% 1.64× 12.87
HT 2-1 3.0% 2.4% 3.3% 0.75× 40.86
HT 0-2 1.2% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 40.94
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.4% 2.7% 0.90× 40.95
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.4% 0.9% 2.79× 40.98
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC at HT / Pyramids FC at FT 42.2% 38.3% 25.9% 1.48× 2.61
Draw at HT / Pyramids FC at FT 21.8% 21.1% 14.7% 1.44× 4.74
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.0% 12.1% 14.1% 0.86× 8.26
Gor Mahia at HT / Gor Mahia at FT 6.0% 6.5% 17.3% 0.37× 15.44
Draw at HT / Gor Mahia at FT 5.8% 6.5% 11.6% 0.56× 15.44
Pyramids FC at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.7% 5.1% 0.72× 27.10
Gor Mahia at HT / Draw at FT 3.3% 3.7% 5.6% 0.66× 27.11
Gor Mahia at HT / Pyramids FC at FT 2.4% 3.7% 2.9% 1.26× 27.14
Pyramids FC at HT / Gor Mahia at FT 0.8% 3.7% 3.0% 1.23× 27.18
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC to score last 68.1% 67.4% 51.3% 1.31× 1.48
Gor Mahia to score last 24.3% 20.1% 42.8% 0.47× 4.99
No goal scored 7.6% 6.7% 5.9% 1.14× 14.95
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.4% 93.3% 94.1% 0.99× 1.07
Pyramids FC to lead by 1 at any time 75.6% 83.3% 60.0% 1.39× 1.20
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.2% 50.8% 48.3% 1.05× 1.97
Pyramids FC to lead by 2 at any time 45.5% 46.9% 28.4% 1.65× 2.13
Gor Mahia to lead by 1 at any time 27.0% 24.8% 50.3% 0.49× 4.03
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.0% 20.3% 19.5% 1.04× 4.92
Pyramids FC to lead by 3 at any time 22.0% 20.3% 12.2% 1.67× 4.92
Gor Mahia to lead by 2 at any time 5.8% 7.6% 20.2% 0.38× 13.12
Gor Mahia to lead by 3 at any time 1.0% 2.7% 7.3% 0.36× 37.54
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.7% 87.4% 86.6% 1.01× 1.15
1-4 goals 80.5% 82.6% 78.7% 1.05× 1.21
2-6 goals 71.2% 72.5% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.1% 68.7% 67.9% 1.01× 1.46
1-3 goals 66.5% 68.7% 64.6% 1.06× 1.46
2-4 goals 60.9% 62.9% 59.9% 1.05× 1.59
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.4% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
3-6 goals 46.0% 47.4% 47.6% 0.99× 2.11
1-2 goals 44.8% 44.1% 42.6% 1.03× 2.27
3-5 goals 42.9% 44.1% 44.0% 1.00× 2.27
3-4 goals 35.7% 39.0% 36.1% 1.08× 2.57
4-6 goals 24.3% 23.3% 25.7% 0.91× 4.29
4-5 goals 21.2% 23.3% 22.0% 1.06× 4.29
5-6 goals 10.3% 13.3% 11.6% 1.15× 7.53
7+ goals 1.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.05× 46.86
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC never behind 65.4% 71.2% 49.7% 1.43× 1.41
Gor Mahia never behind 16.8% 18.8% 40.0% 0.47× 5.32
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.7% 50.1% 50.2% 1.00× 2.00
Even number of goals 50.3% 49.9% 49.8% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.7% 55.2% 53.6% 1.03× 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 44.3% 44.8% 46.4% 0.97× 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.5% 51.7% 51.1% 1.01× 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.5% 48.3% 48.9% 0.99× 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.3% 96.3% 94.4% 1.02× 1.04
Over 0.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.1% 88.2% 86.4% 1.02× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 74.1% 72.3% 72.3% 1.00× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 72.8% 72.3% 73.5% 0.98× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.4% 51.1% 50.3% 1.02× 1.96
Over 2.5 goals 47.6% 48.9% 49.7% 0.98× 2.05
Under 1.5 goals 27.2% 27.7% 26.5% 1.05× 3.60
Over 3.5 goals 25.9% 27.7% 27.7% 1.00× 3.61
Over 4.5 goals 11.9% 11.8% 13.6% 0.87× 8.44
Under 0.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 0.99× 13.00
Over 5.5 goals 4.7% 3.7% 5.6% 0.66× 26.99
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.5% 97.9% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.9% 92.0% 93.9% 0.98× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.1% 87.4% 84.2% 1.04× 1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 66.9% 66.7% 64.5% 1.03× 1.50
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.6% 62.4% 65.2% 0.96× 1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.4% 37.6% 34.8% 1.08× 2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 33.1% 33.3% 35.5% 0.94× 3.01
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.9% 12.6% 15.8% 0.80× 7.93
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.1% 8.0% 6.1% 1.31× 12.44
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.5% 2.1% 1.18× 40.31
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.3% 91.9% 88.5% 1.04× 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.3% 72.6% 66.3% 1.09× 1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.3% 68.0% 70.8% 0.96× 1.47
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.7% 32.0% 29.2% 1.10× 3.13
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.7% 27.4% 33.7% 0.81× 3.65
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.7% 8.1% 11.5% 0.70× 12.33
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.2% 83.4% 77.6% 1.08× 1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.5% 78.9% 82.3% 0.96× 1.27
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.1% 57.0% 50.3% 1.13× 1.75
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.9% 43.0% 49.7% 0.87× 2.33
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.5% 21.1% 17.7% 1.19× 4.73
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.8% 16.6% 22.4% 0.74× 6.04
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia not to score in both halves 92.1% 90.0% 77.6% 1.16× 1.11
Pyramids FC not to score in both halves 63.1% 65.4% 70.4% 0.93× 1.53
Pyramids FC to score in both halves 36.9% 34.6% 29.6% 1.17× 2.89
Gor Mahia to score in both halves 7.9% 10.0% 22.4% 0.45× 10.04
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Pyramids FC scores 43.1% 46.4% 24.9% 1.86× 2.16
Both teams score 41.9% 46.3% 52.2% 0.89× 2.16
Neither team scores 7.6% 7.0% 7.7% 0.90× 14.28
Only Gor Mahia scores 7.4% 7.0% 15.2% 0.46× 14.28
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.2% 25.4% 23.9% 1.06× 3.94
Exactly 3 goals 21.7% 22.4% 22.0% 1.02× 4.46
Exactly 1 goals 19.6% 17.8% 18.7% 0.95× 5.62
Exactly 4 goals 14.0% 12.2% 14.1% 0.87× 8.19
Exactly 0 goals 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 0.98× 13.21
Exactly 5 goals 7.2% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.21
6 or more goals 4.7% 3.8% 5.6% 0.68× 26.05
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.9% 42.6% 49.7% 0.86× 2.35
1 goal in 2nd half 33.6% 34.2% 32.6% 1.05× 2.93
No goals in 2nd half 22.5% 20.6% 17.7% 1.17× 4.85
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia not to win both halves 98.4% 97.2% 91.8% 1.06× 1.03
Pyramids FC not to win both halves 75.4% 80.3% 86.7% 0.93× 1.25
Pyramids FC to win both halves 24.6% 19.7% 13.3% 1.48× 5.08
Gor Mahia to win both halves 1.6% 2.8% 8.2% 0.35× 35.38
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia to win neither half 76.1% 81.8% 52.7% 1.55× 1.22
Pyramids FC to win either half 74.7% 70.9% 58.4% 1.21× 1.41
Pyramids FC to win neither half 25.3% 29.1% 41.6% 0.70× 3.43
Gor Mahia to win either half 23.9% 18.2% 47.3% 0.38× 5.49
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gor Mahia not to win to nil 92.6% 92.6% 84.8% 1.09× 1.08
Pyramids FC not to win to nil 56.9% 57.4% 75.1% 0.76× 1.74
Pyramids FC to win to nil 43.1% 42.6% 24.9% 1.71× 2.35
Gor Mahia to win to nil 7.4% 7.4% 15.2% 0.49× 13.51
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Pyramids FC by 1 25.9% 28.2% 23.0% 1.23× 3.54
Pyramids FC by 2 20.6% 23.5% 12.5% 1.87× 4.26
Draw 21.0% 23.5% 26.1% 0.90× 4.26
Pyramids FC by 3+ 19.9% 17.5% 9.2% 1.90× 5.70
Gor Mahia by 1 9.3% 7.1% 17.1% 0.42× 14.12
Gor Mahia by 2 2.6% 2.6% 7.4% 0.35× 38.31
Gor Mahia by 3+ 0.6% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.36
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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