Qingdao West Coast v Yunnan Yukun — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · CHN-Super League · 2627
CHN-Super League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 2-1 9.3%
- 1-0 8.5%
- 2-0 7.3%
- 1-2 7.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 55.7% | Under 2.5 | 44.3% |
| BTTS yes | 58.5% | BTTS no | 41.5% |
| Qingdao West Coast 1+ | 80.5% | Qingdao West Coast 2+ | 48.7% |
| Yunnan Yukun 1+ | 72.1% | Yunnan Yukun 2+ | 36.5% |
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.28. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Qingdao West Coast carry the stronger rating, 1570 Elo against 1517.
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0120 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Qingdao West Coast have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for Yunnan Yukun and 26.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Qingdao West Coast and 1.28 for Yunnan Yukun.
Why Qingdao West Coast
Qingdao West Coast carry the stronger rating, 1570 Elo against 1517. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Yunnan Yukun can win
Nothing in the data singles out Yunnan Yukun.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Qingdao West Coast, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Yunnan Yukun, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Qingdao West Coast: 47% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Yunnan Yukun: 52% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Qingdao West Coast are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.76–1.23 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 59% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.