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Racing Genk v KV Kortrijk — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627

BEL-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Racing Genk win
67.7%
model 69.4%
Draw
19.1%
model 18.2%
KV Kortrijk win
13.3%
model 12.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (999 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.8%
  2. 2-1 9.6%
  3. 1-0 8.9%
  4. 1-1 8.5%
  5. 3-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.562.7% Under 2.537.3%
BTTS yes53.7% BTTS no46.3%
Racing Genk 1+90.4% Racing Genk 2+67.8%
KV Kortrijk 1+59.1% KV Kortrijk 2+22.5%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.89. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Racing Genk carry the stronger rating, 1586 Elo against 1376.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Racing Genk have an estimated 67.7% win probability, against 19.1% for the draw and 13.3% for KV Kortrijk. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.34 for Racing Genk and 0.89 for KV Kortrijk.

Why Racing Genk

Racing Genk carry the stronger rating, 1586 Elo against 1376.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why KV Kortrijk can win

Nothing in the data singles out KV Kortrijk.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Racing Genk, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for KV Kortrijk, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Racing Genk: 54% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. KV Kortrijk: 34% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Racing Genk are the model's most likely outcome at 67.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.31–0.94 2-0 10% 63% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to win 67.8% 65.1% 42.9% 1.52× 1.54
Draw 18.8% 19.3% 26.4% 0.73× 5.17
KV Kortrijk to win 13.5% 13.3% 30.9% 0.43× 7.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk & not both score 34.9% 29.7% 24.4% 1.22× 3.36
Racing Genk & both teams score 32.8% 29.7% 18.7% 1.59× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 14.6% 13.3% 18.8% 0.70× 7.54
KV Kortrijk & both teams score 7.7% 8.4% 16.5% 0.51× 11.93
KV Kortrijk & not both score 5.7% 8.4% 14.5% 0.58× 11.94
Draw & not both score 4.2% 4.9% 7.7% 0.63× 20.56
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk & over 1.5 59.1% 55.0% 33.6% 1.64× 1.82
Racing Genk & over 2.5 48.7% 45.2% 26.1% 1.73× 2.21
Racing Genk & under 3.5 36.8% 34.9% 29.5% 1.18× 2.87
Racing Genk & over 3.5 31.0% 30.9% 13.6% 2.27× 3.24
Racing Genk & under 2.5 19.1% 18.0% 17.0% 1.06× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.6% 12.9% 18.8% 0.68× 7.77
Draw & under 2.5 12.9% 12.9% 19.9% 0.65× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 12.9% 12.9% 19.9% 0.65× 7.77
KV Kortrijk & over 1.5 10.1% 12.9% 24.4% 0.53× 7.77
Racing Genk & under 1.5 8.7% 7.9% 9.4% 0.84× 12.69
KV Kortrijk & under 3.5 9.5% 7.9% 21.9% 0.36× 12.69
KV Kortrijk & over 2.5 8.4% 7.9% 19.8% 0.40× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.70
KV Kortrijk & under 2.5 5.1% 7.9% 11.3% 0.70× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 4.2% 4.8% 7.7% 0.62× 20.93
KV Kortrijk & over 3.5 3.9% 4.8% 9.1% 0.52× 20.94
KV Kortrijk & under 1.5 3.3% 4.8% 6.6% 0.72× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (1UP) 78.9% 79.1% 1.27
KV Kortrijk (1UP) 32.0% 32.7% 3.06
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (2UP) 67.8% 68.9% 1.45
KV Kortrijk (2UP) 13.5% 13.5% 7.41
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to win 2nd half 55.1% 59.5% 1.68
2nd half drawn 29.1% 26.3% 3.80
KV Kortrijk to win 2nd half 15.8% 18.8% 5.31
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (+0.5) 86.5% 88.5% 69.1% 1.28× 1.13
KV Kortrijk (+2.5) 75.1% 78.4% 89.5% 0.88× 1.28
Racing Genk (-0.5) 67.8% 68.7% 42.9% 1.60× 1.46
KV Kortrijk (+1.5) 54.9% 52.4% 77.9% 0.67× 1.91
Racing Genk (-1.5) 45.1% 47.6% 22.1% 2.16× 2.10
KV Kortrijk (+0.5) 32.2% 31.3% 57.1% 0.55× 3.20
Racing Genk (-2.5) 24.9% 21.6% 10.5% 2.06× 4.63
KV Kortrijk (-0.5) 13.5% 11.5% 30.9% 0.37× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk to concede 90.0% 91.7% 77.9% 1.18× 1.09
KV Kortrijk clean sheet 10.0% 8.3% 22.1% 0.38× 12.02
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk to concede in 1st half 62.9% 64.9% 1.54
KV Kortrijk clean sheet in 1st half 37.1% 35.1% 2.85
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk under 6.5 corners 89.4% 85.2% 1.17
KV Kortrijk under 5.5 corners 81.2% 81.5% 1.23
KV Kortrijk under 4.5 corners 68.9% 67.5% 1.48
KV Kortrijk over 2.5 corners 66.5% 67.5% 1.48
KV Kortrijk under 3.5 corners 52.4% 53.1% 1.88
KV Kortrijk over 3.5 corners 47.6% 46.9% 2.13
KV Kortrijk under 2.5 corners 33.5% 32.5% 3.08
KV Kortrijk over 4.5 corners 31.1% 32.5% 3.08
KV Kortrijk over 5.5 corners 18.8% 18.5% 5.39
KV Kortrijk over 6.5 corners 10.6% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk under 3.5 goals 98.5% 97.5% 95.2% 1.02× 1.03
KV Kortrijk under 2.5 goals 93.1% 92.3% 86.9% 1.06× 1.08
KV Kortrijk under 1.5 goals 75.9% 76.2% 64.7% 1.18× 1.31
KV Kortrijk over 0.5 goals 60.9% 62.9% 68.1% 0.92× 1.59
KV Kortrijk under 0.5 goals 39.1% 37.1% 31.9% 1.16× 2.70
KV Kortrijk over 1.5 goals 24.1% 23.8% 35.3% 0.67× 4.21
KV Kortrijk over 2.5 goals 6.9% 7.7% 13.1% 0.58× 13.04
KV Kortrijk over 3.5 goals 1.5% 2.5% 4.8% 0.51× 40.80
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk under 1.5 in 1st half 94.5% 94.3% 1.06
KV Kortrijk under 0.5 in 1st half 68.7% 68.4% 1.46
KV Kortrijk over 0.5 in 1st half 31.3% 31.6% 3.17
KV Kortrijk over 1.5 in 1st half 5.5% 5.7% 17.40
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (away no bet) 78.3% 73.7% 61.9% 1.19× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 21.7% 26.3% 38.1% 0.69× 3.81
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk even goals 57.7% 56.9% 57.4% 0.99× 1.76
KV Kortrijk odd goals 42.3% 43.1% 42.6% 1.01× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.8% 82.2% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.2% 17.8% 5.62
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.6% 67.4% 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.4% 32.6% 3.06
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 68.3% 62.3% 1.61
Racing Genk to score 2+ in a row 59.7% 55.3% 1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row 33.4% 29.0% 3.45
Racing Genk to score 3+ in a row 30.8% 28.9% 3.46
KV Kortrijk to score 2+ in a row 15.3% 16.3% 6.14
KV Kortrijk to score 3+ in a row 2.9% 2.6% 38.78
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk corners (+3.5) 93.9% 89.6% 1.12
Racing Genk corners (+2.5) 89.7% 84.5% 1.18
Racing Genk corners (+1.5) 83.5% 79.7% 1.25
KV Kortrijk corners (+3.5) 68.2% 65.8% 1.52
KV Kortrijk corners (+2.5) 57.7% 57.1% 1.75
Racing Genk corners (-1.5) 53.7% 52.5% 1.91
KV Kortrijk corners (+1.5) 46.3% 47.5% 2.10
Racing Genk corners (-2.5) 42.3% 42.9% 2.33
Racing Genk corners (-3.5) 31.8% 34.2% 2.92
KV Kortrijk corners (-1.5) 16.5% 20.3% 4.94
KV Kortrijk corners (-2.5) 10.3% 15.5% 6.46
KV Kortrijk corners (-3.5) 6.1% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 45.3% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 29.7% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 25.0% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.0% 80.8% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 75.0% 72.6% 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 66.3% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 65.9% 67.7% 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 56.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 54.7% 53.3% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 45.3% 46.7% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 43.8% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 34.1% 32.3% 3.09
Over 10.5 corners 33.7% 32.3% 3.09
Over 11.5 corners 25.0% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 18.0% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 10.4% 11.5% 7.7% 1.48× 8.73
1-1 8.7% 7.4% 12.3% 0.60× 13.48
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.48
Any other score 8.7% 7.4% 4.3% 1.72× 13.48
1-0 8.7% 7.4% 9.4% 0.79× 13.48
3-0 8.0% 7.4% 4.0% 1.85× 13.48
3-1 7.5% 7.4% 2.9% 2.53× 13.48
1-2 4.0% 1.7% 8.8% 0.19× 58.47
1-3 1.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.48
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.49
2-2 4.6% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.46
2-3 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 58.48
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.49
3-2 3.5% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.47
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.69× 58.49
4-0 4.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.46
4-1 4.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.46
4-2 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.23× 58.48
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.69× 58.49
0-0 4.2% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.47
0-1 3.3% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.47
0-2 1.7% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.48
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 58.49
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk leading at HT (DNB) 78.6% 78.3% 1.28
KV Kortrijk leading at HT (DNB) 21.4% 21.7% 4.60
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk or draw (1X) 86.5% 86.7% 69.1% 1.25× 1.15
Racing Genk or KV Kortrijk (12) 81.2% 80.7% 73.6% 1.10× 1.24
KV Kortrijk or draw (X2) 32.2% 34.9% 57.1% 0.61× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk or draw at HT 86.3% 88.1% 1.14
Racing Genk or KV Kortrijk at HT 64.0% 62.1% 1.61
KV Kortrijk or draw at HT 49.7% 52.4% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk or draw (1UP) 86.5% 91.6% 1.09
KV Kortrijk or draw (1UP) 32.2% 38.8% 2.58
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk or draw in 2nd half 84.2% 81.2% 1.23
Racing Genk or KV Kortrijk in 2nd half 70.9% 73.7% 1.36
KV Kortrijk or draw in 2nd half 44.9% 40.5% 2.47
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.3% 50.0% 2.00
Neither half drawn 45.7% 50.0% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (DNB) 83.4% 80.6% 58.2% 1.39× 1.24
KV Kortrijk (DNB) 16.6% 19.4% 41.8% 0.46× 5.14
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to score first 68.1% 69.4% 1.44
KV Kortrijk to score first 27.7% 28.2% 3.54
No goal scored 4.2% 4.3% 23.24
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.1% 54.9% 53.7% 1.02× 1.82
Not both teams to score 44.9% 45.1% 46.3% 0.97× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.4% 44.3% 41.5% 1.07× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 28.3% 33.6% 35.6% 0.94× 2.98
Not both score & over 2.5 16.6% 21.7% 10.8% 2.01× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 8.7% 8.4% 12.3% 0.68× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.8% 83.1% 85.5% 0.97× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 16.2% 16.9% 14.5% 1.17× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.4% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.6% 32.4% 3.09
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 54.9% 56.1% 1.78
Both score 2nd half only 25.4% 26.5% 3.78
Both score 1st half only 13.5% 10.8% 9.29
Both score in both halves 6.2% 6.8% 14.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.3% 82.3% 1.22
Both teams to score by HT 19.7% 17.7% 5.65
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.3% 58.9% 1.70
A half without a goal 36.7% 41.1% 2.44
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.0% 42.1% 47.7% 0.88× 2.38
4-6 goals 36.0% 35.1% 26.4% 1.33× 2.85
0-1 goals 16.2% 20.2% 23.5% 0.86× 4.96
7+ goals 4.7% 1.8% 2.8% 0.66× 54.31
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk to score exactly 0 39.1% 36.0% 31.9% 1.13× 2.78
KV Kortrijk to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 32.9% 1.09× 2.78
KV Kortrijk to score exactly 2 17.2% 19.6% 22.4% 0.87× 5.11
KV Kortrijk to score 3+ 6.9% 8.5% 13.1% 0.64× 11.83
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to score 3+ 40.6% 34.8% 19.3% 1.81× 2.87
Racing Genk to score exactly 2 26.5% 26.5% 24.4% 1.09× 3.77
Racing Genk to score exactly 1 23.0% 23.2% 34.6% 0.67× 4.30
Racing Genk to score exactly 0 10.0% 10.3% 22.1% 0.47× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk leading at HT 50.3% 47.6% 2.10
Draw at HT 36.0% 37.9% 2.64
KV Kortrijk leading at HT 13.7% 11.9% 8.38
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk -1: 1 45.1% 46.9% 2.13
Racing Genk -1: 2 32.2% 30.1% 3.33
Racing Genk -1: X 22.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (0:1) 45.1% 45.9% 22.1% 2.08× 2.18
KV Kortrijk (0:1) 32.2% 30.0% 57.1% 0.53× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 22.6% 24.3% 21.0% 1.16× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk (0:2) 54.9% 58.6% 77.9% 0.75× 1.71
Racing Genk (0:2) 24.9% 20.4% 10.5% 1.94× 4.90
Draw (0:2) 20.2% 20.3% 11.7% 1.73× 4.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk (0:3) 75.1% 80.3% 89.5% 0.90× 1.25
Draw (0:3) 13.4% 10.0% 6.2% 1.62× 9.98
Racing Genk (0:3) 11.6% 10.0% 4.5% 2.23× 10.01
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk (0:4) 88.4% 92.0% 95.5% 0.96× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 7.0% 4.6% 2.5% 1.88× 21.51
Racing Genk (0:4) 4.6% 1.2% 2.2% 0.56× 83.14
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (1:0) 86.5% 86.4% 69.1% 1.25× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 9.0% 6.9% 17.6% 0.39× 14.41
KV Kortrijk (1:0) 4.5% 3.2% 13.4% 0.24× 31.38
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk (2:0) 95.5% 96.9% 86.6% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.3% 2.3% 8.6% 0.26× 44.16
KV Kortrijk (2:0) 1.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.46× 44.30
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.2% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 22.9% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to concede 60.9% 63.4% 68.1% 0.93× 1.58
Racing Genk clean sheet 39.1% 36.6% 31.9% 1.15× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk clean sheet in 1st half 68.7% 68.7% 1.46
Racing Genk to concede in 1st half 31.3% 31.3% 3.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk over 2.5 corners 86.7% 86.3% 1.16
Racing Genk over 3.5 corners 74.8% 71.9% 1.39
Racing Genk under 6.5 corners 66.2% 66.7% 1.50
Racing Genk over 4.5 corners 60.7% 62.3% 1.61
Racing Genk under 5.5 corners 53.5% 52.8% 1.89
Racing Genk over 5.5 corners 46.5% 47.2% 2.12
Racing Genk under 4.5 corners 39.3% 37.7% 2.65
Racing Genk over 6.5 corners 33.8% 33.3% 3.00
Racing Genk under 3.5 corners 25.2% 28.1% 3.56
Racing Genk under 2.5 corners 13.3% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk over 0.5 goals 90.0% 92.2% 77.9% 1.18× 1.08
Racing Genk under 3.5 goals 79.8% 77.8% 90.9% 0.86× 1.29
Racing Genk over 1.5 goals 67.1% 67.9% 43.5% 1.56× 1.47
Racing Genk under 2.5 goals 59.4% 58.8% 80.7% 0.73× 1.70
Racing Genk over 2.5 goals 40.6% 41.2% 19.3% 2.13× 2.43
Racing Genk under 1.5 goals 32.9% 32.1% 56.5% 0.57× 3.11
Racing Genk over 3.5 goals 20.2% 22.2% 9.1% 2.44× 4.50
Racing Genk under 0.5 goals 10.0% 7.8% 22.1% 0.35× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk under 1.5 in 1st half 73.9% 80.0% 1.25
Racing Genk over 0.5 in 1st half 62.9% 64.7% 1.55
Racing Genk under 0.5 in 1st half 37.1% 35.3% 2.84
Racing Genk over 1.5 in 1st half 26.1% 20.0% 5.01
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 58.2% 56.7% 46.1% 1.23× 1.76
KV Kortrijk (home no bet) 41.8% 43.3% 53.9% 0.80× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk even goals 50.5% 50.6% 52.6% 0.96× 1.98
Racing Genk odd goals 49.5% 49.4% 47.4% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.5% 28.8% 3.48
HT 1-0 25.2% 28.8% 3.48
HT 2-0 12.5% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 9.5% 7.1% 14.01
HT 0-1 9.5% 7.1% 14.01
Any other HT score 8.5% 7.1% 14.03
HT 2-1 4.7% 2.3% 43.26
HT 0-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 1-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.3% 43.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk at HT / Racing Genk at FT 44.9% 43.6% 2.29
Draw at HT / Racing Genk at FT 19.6% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.8% 12.7% 7.90
KV Kortrijk at HT / KV Kortrijk at FT 6.7% 6.0% 16.69
Draw at HT / KV Kortrijk at FT 5.5% 6.0% 16.72
Racing Genk at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.80
KV Kortrijk at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% 28.82
KV Kortrijk at HT / Racing Genk at FT 3.3% 3.5% 28.84
Racing Genk at HT / KV Kortrijk at FT 1.2% 3.5% 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to score last 68.2% 70.3% 1.42
KV Kortrijk to score last 27.6% 27.0% 3.70
No goal scored 4.2% 4.3% 23.24
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.8% 95.6% 1.05
Racing Genk to lead by 1 at any time 78.9% 78.4% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 60.2% 61.2% 1.63
Racing Genk to lead by 2 at any time 51.9% 50.7% 1.97
KV Kortrijk to lead by 1 at any time 32.0% 29.4% 3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 30.2% 29.3% 3.41
Racing Genk to lead by 3 at any time 28.3% 25.5% 3.93
KV Kortrijk to lead by 2 at any time 8.6% 6.7% 15.00
KV Kortrijk to lead by 3 at any time 1.9% 1.6% 62.42
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk most corners 65.0% 60.6% 1.65
KV Kortrijk most corners 24.9% 26.0% 3.85
Corners level 10.2% 10.4% 9.62
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.8% 83.5% 86.0% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.1% 78.6% 73.9% 1.06× 1.27
1-4 goals 73.1% 72.4% 76.9% 0.94× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.7% 72.4% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.0% 63.4% 61.1% 1.04× 1.58
3-6 goals 58.2% 59.2% 49.5% 1.19× 1.69
1-3 goals 55.1% 59.2% 63.4% 0.93× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.9% 53.2% 45.8% 1.16× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.0% 43.6% 47.7% 0.91× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.2% 43.6% 36.7% 1.19× 2.30
4-6 goals 36.0% 39.1% 26.4% 1.48× 2.56
1-2 goals 32.9% 35.4% 40.3% 0.88× 2.83
4-5 goals 29.7% 30.3% 22.7% 1.33× 3.31
5-6 goals 18.0% 18.6% 13.0% 1.44× 5.37
7+ goals 4.7% 2.6% 2.8% 0.92× 39.12
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk never behind 63.8% 67.7% 1.48
KV Kortrijk never behind 16.9% 18.6% 5.38
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.3% 50.8% 50.0% 1.02× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.7% 49.2% 50.0% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.4% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.6% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.4% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.6% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.8% 95.5% 92.3% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.0% 87.7% 93.5% 0.94× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 83.8% 82.4% 76.5% 1.08× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 77.3% 77.3% 84.4% 0.92× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 62.9% 61.8% 52.2% 1.18× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 59.3% 58.8% 71.0% 0.83× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 40.7% 41.2% 29.0% 1.42× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 37.1% 38.2% 47.8% 0.80× 2.62
Over 4.5 goals 22.7% 22.7% 15.6% 1.45× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 16.2% 17.6% 23.5% 0.75× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 11.0% 12.3% 6.5% 1.91× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 4.2% 4.5% 7.7% 0.58× 22.19
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.0% 92.5% 97.1% 0.95× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.5% 86.7% 92.9% 0.93× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 79.5% 75.9% 69.0% 1.10× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.3% 72.6% 82.0% 0.89× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.4% 51.8% 37.8% 1.37× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.6% 48.2% 62.2% 0.77× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 27.7% 27.4% 18.0% 1.52× 3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 20.5% 24.1% 31.0% 0.78× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.5% 13.3% 7.1% 1.86× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.0% 7.5% 2.9% 2.61× 13.28
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.1% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.5% 71.3% 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.3% 63.6% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.7% 36.4% 2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.5% 28.7% 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.9% 13.7% 7.31
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.6% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 71.0% 77.6% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.1% 54.8% 1.83
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.9% 45.2% 2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.0% 22.4% 4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.4% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk not to score in both halves 86.5% 85.7% 1.17
Racing Genk not to score in both halves 54.0% 55.9% 1.79
Racing Genk to score in both halves 46.0% 44.1% 2.27
KV Kortrijk to score in both halves 13.5% 14.3% 7.00
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.1% 58.3% 53.7% 1.09× 1.71
Only Racing Genk scores 34.9% 33.4% 24.4% 1.37× 3.00
Only KV Kortrijk scores 5.7% 7.2% 14.5% 0.50× 13.92
Neither team scores 4.2% 4.6% 7.7% 0.59× 21.81
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 20.8% 22.6% 24.5% 0.92× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 18.0% 17.4% 13.6% 1.28× 5.74
Exactly 1 goals 12.0% 12.1% 15.9% 0.76× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 11.7% 12.1% 9.3% 1.31× 8.28
6 or more goals 11.0% 12.1% 6.5% 1.86× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 4.2% 4.4% 7.7% 0.57× 22.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.1% 53.3% 1.88
1 goal in 2nd half 28.5% 29.8% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 15.4% 17.1% 5.86
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk not to win both halves 97.8% 97.2% 1.03
Racing Genk not to win both halves 72.2% 72.6% 1.38
Racing Genk to win both halves 27.8% 27.4% 3.65
KV Kortrijk to win both halves 2.2% 2.8% 36.34
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk to win either half 77.6% 79.7% 1.25
KV Kortrijk to win neither half 72.7% 73.0% 1.37
KV Kortrijk to win either half 27.3% 27.0% 3.70
Racing Genk to win neither half 22.4% 20.3% 4.93
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
KV Kortrijk not to win to nil 94.3% 92.1% 85.5% 1.08× 1.09
Racing Genk not to win to nil 65.1% 69.6% 75.6% 0.92× 1.44
Racing Genk to win to nil 34.9% 30.4% 24.4% 1.25× 3.29
KV Kortrijk to win to nil 5.7% 7.9% 14.5% 0.55× 12.60
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Racing Genk by 3+ 24.9% 24.2% 10.5% 2.30× 4.14
Racing Genk by 1 22.6% 24.1% 21.0% 1.15× 4.14
Racing Genk by 2 20.2% 24.1% 11.7% 2.06× 4.14
Draw 18.8% 16.9% 26.4% 0.64× 5.91
KV Kortrijk by 1 9.0% 7.3% 17.6% 0.41× 13.77
KV Kortrijk by 2 3.3% 2.7% 8.6% 0.31× 36.98
KV Kortrijk by 3+ 1.1% 2.7% 4.9% 0.55× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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