Racing Santander v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Racing Santander

16:00 UTC

Real Madrid

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 173h before kick-off

Racing Santander win

18.7%

model 19.8%

Draw

18.6%

model 18.5%

Real Madrid win

62.7%

model 61.7%

191963

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.0%
1-3 7.4%
1-1 7.4%
0-2 6.7%
2-2 6.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	73.3%	Under 2.5	26.7%
BTTS yes	67.8%	BTTS no	32.2%
Racing Santander 1+	74.2%	Racing Santander 2+	39.2%
Real Madrid 1+	91.4%	Real Madrid 2+	70.4%

Expected goals 1.35 – 2.46. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 3.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 26%

52.9% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 1367 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Real Madrid or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 60%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Real Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1806 Elo against 1548.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Real Madrid average 2.26 xG a match.
They have had 14 days' rest to Racing Santander's 8.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Real Madrid have an estimated 62.7% win probability, against 18.7% for Racing Santander and 18.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Racing Santander and 2.46 for Real Madrid.

Why Racing Santander

At home Racing Santander average 2.03 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Real Madrid were missing 0.76 expected goal involvements a match against 0.31.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Real Madrid can win

Real Madrid carry the stronger rating, 1806 Elo against 1548. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. Away from home Real Madrid average 2.26 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Racing Santander's 8.

Key players

Racing Santander's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Yassir Zabiri (0.33), Andrés Martín (0.29), Iñigo Vicente (0.26). Real Madrid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kylian Mbappe-Lottin (0.99), Vinícius Júnior (0.56), Jude Bellingham (0.39).

Availability

1 of Real Madrid's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Real Madrid's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Racing Santander: 51% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces. Real Madrid: 50% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Real Madrid are the model's most likely outcome at 62.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.0%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Racing Santander are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLWLWLLDLW last 10 scored 15 from 14.3 xG conceded 26 from 21.4 xG

Real Madrid have scored 27 from 25.2 expected and conceded 11 from 11.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWWWLWWLWW last 10 scored 27 from 25.2 xG conceded 11 from 11.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	201862	1.35–2.46	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	181864	1.28–2.49	1-2 9%	73%	66%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to win	38.9%	36.4%	46.4%	0.78×	2.75
Real Madrid to win	36.6%	36.4%	28.4%	1.28×	2.75
Draw	24.5%	24.5%	25.4%	0.97×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander & both teams score	20.7%	21.8%	21.7%	1.00×	4.59
Real Madrid & both teams score	19.6%	18.0%	14.1%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Racing Santander & not both score	18.2%	18.0%	24.8%	0.73×	5.56
Real Madrid & not both score	17.0%	18.0%	14.4%	1.25×	5.57
Draw & not both score	5.2%	8.3%	5.3%	1.58×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander & over 1.5	31.1%	30.7%	33.9%	0.91×	3.25
Real Madrid & over 1.5	29.0%	26.1%	21.5%	1.21×	3.84
Racing Santander & over 2.5	25.2%	26.1%	28.0%	0.93×	3.84
Racing Santander & under 3.5	25.2%	26.1%	32.4%	0.81×	3.84
Real Madrid & under 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Real Madrid & over 2.5	23.6%	21.6%	17.2%	1.26×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.5%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Racing Santander & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	18.5%	0.70×	7.79
Racing Santander & over 3.5	13.7%	12.8%	14.1%	0.91×	7.79
Real Madrid & under 2.5	13.0%	12.8%	11.3%	1.13×	7.79
Real Madrid & over 3.5	12.7%	12.8%	7.1%	1.80×	7.79
Racing Santander & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.9%	7.9%	5.1%	1.54×	12.63
Real Madrid & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.2%	7.9%	5.3%	1.51×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (1UP)	56.7%	58.1%	62.8%	0.93×	1.72
Real Madrid (1UP)	54.7%	52.6%	47.2%	1.12×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (2UP)	38.9%	37.6%	48.1%	0.78×	2.66
Real Madrid (2UP)	36.6%	37.4%	30.0%	1.25×	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to win 2nd half	39.1%	36.3%	27.6%	1.31×	2.76
2nd half drawn	37.6%	36.2%	32.9%	1.10×	2.76
Racing Santander to win 2nd half	23.3%	24.2%	39.6%	0.61×	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.5%	79.3%	84.2%	0.94×	1.26
Real Madrid over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.7%	54.3%	52.2%	1.04×	1.84
Real Madrid under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.3%	45.7%	47.8%	0.96×	2.19
Real Madrid over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.5%	20.7%	15.8%	1.31×	4.84

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.7%	88.7%	79.6%	1.11×	1.13
Racing Santander under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.4%	58.2%	40.9%	1.42×	1.72
Racing Santander over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.6%	41.8%	59.1%	0.71×	2.39
Racing Santander over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.3%	11.3%	20.4%	0.55×	8.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (+2.5)	92.7%	92.1%	89.8%	1.03×	1.09
Real Madrid (+1.5)	81.2%	82.5%	79.3%	1.04×	1.21
Racing Santander (+0.5)	63.4%	62.9%	71.6%	0.88×	1.59
Real Madrid (+0.5)	61.1%	62.9%	53.6%	1.17×	1.59
Racing Santander (-0.5)	38.9%	37.1%	46.4%	0.80×	2.70
Real Madrid (-0.5)	36.6%	37.1%	28.4%	1.31×	2.70
Racing Santander (-1.5)	18.8%	17.5%	20.7%	0.84×	5.73
Racing Santander (-2.5)	7.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to concede	77.8%	78.8%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
Real Madrid clean sheet	22.2%	21.2%	19.5%	1.09×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to concede in 1st half	60.7%	64.2%	47.7%	1.35×	1.56
Real Madrid clean sheet in 1st half	39.3%	35.8%	52.3%	0.68×	2.80

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid clean sheet in 2nd half	56.4%	57.6%	40.9%	1.41×	1.74
Real Madrid to concede in 2nd half	43.6%	42.4%	59.1%	0.72×	2.36

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid over 2.5 corners	91.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Real Madrid over 3.5 corners	82.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Real Madrid over 4.5 corners	70.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Real Madrid over 5.5 corners	58.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Real Madrid under 6.5 corners	54.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Real Madrid over 6.5 corners	45.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Real Madrid under 5.5 corners	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Real Madrid under 4.5 corners	29.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Real Madrid under 3.5 corners	17.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Real Madrid under 2.5 corners	8.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.87

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid under 3.5 goals	94.0%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Real Madrid under 2.5 goals	82.1%	81.5%	89.4%	0.91×	1.23
Real Madrid over 0.5 goals	76.6%	76.2%	70.1%	1.09×	1.31
Real Madrid under 1.5 goals	57.4%	59.4%	67.9%	0.88×	1.68
Real Madrid over 1.5 goals	42.6%	40.6%	32.1%	1.26×	2.47
Real Madrid under 0.5 goals	23.4%	23.8%	29.9%	0.79×	4.21
Real Madrid over 2.5 goals	17.9%	18.5%	10.6%	1.74×	5.40
Real Madrid over 3.5 goals	6.0%	7.6%	2.9%	2.62×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid under 1.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.4%	92.7%	0.96×	1.12
Real Madrid under 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.5%	63.2%	0.88×	1.80
Real Madrid over 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.5%	36.8%	1.21×	2.25
Real Madrid over 1.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.6%	7.3%	1.46×	9.43

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid scores more in 2nd half	38.1%	37.5%	37.7%	0.99×	2.67
Real Madrid scores equally in both	37.1%	37.5%	41.6%	0.90×	2.67
Real Madrid scores more in 1st half	24.9%	21.9%	20.8%	1.05×	4.57

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (away no bet)	61.4%	61.9%	64.7%	0.96×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	38.6%	38.1%	35.3%	1.08×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid even goals	52.7%	52.6%	53.2%	0.99×	1.90
Real Madrid odd goals	47.3%	47.4%	46.8%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.1%	82.7%	85.8%	0.96×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.9%	17.3%	14.2%	1.22×	5.79

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.1%	68.4%	62.5%	1.09×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.9%	31.6%	37.5%	0.84×	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.6%	55.2%	52.6%	1.05×	1.81
Racing Santander to score 2+ in a row	34.7%	29.1%	34.5%	0.84×	3.43
Real Madrid to score 2+ in a row	32.9%	29.1%	23.9%	1.22×	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.8%	19.6%	19.2%	1.02×	5.10
Racing Santander to score 3+ in a row	11.6%	12.0%	13.1%	0.92×	8.33
Real Madrid to score 3+ in a row	10.6%	12.0%	6.6%	1.83×	8.35

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid corners (+3.5)	86.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Real Madrid corners (+2.5)	80.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Real Madrid corners (+1.5)	73.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Racing Santander corners (+3.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Racing Santander corners (+2.5)	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Racing Santander corners (+1.5)	54.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Real Madrid corners (-1.5)	45.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Real Madrid corners (-2.5)	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Real Madrid corners (-3.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Racing Santander corners (-1.5)	27.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Racing Santander corners (-2.5)	19.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Racing Santander corners (-3.5)	13.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	50.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	22.3%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	84.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 9.5 corners	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 10.5 corners	60.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 12.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 11.5 corners	50.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 11.5 corners	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 12.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 10.5 corners	40.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Under 7.5 corners	15.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.4%	11.5%	15.2%	0.76×	8.72
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
1-0	7.8%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.51
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.51
0-0	5.2%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
0-2	5.5%	7.4%	4.4%	1.67×	13.51
2-0	5.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	4.2%	1.76×	13.51
0-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.30
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.10×	58.31
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.30
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.67×	58.31
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.94×	58.31
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
3-1	4.3%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.30
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.63×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.89×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.31
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.45×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	14.68×	58.32
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (2nd half DNB)	62.7%	62.8%	41.1%	1.53×	1.59
Racing Santander (2nd half DNB)	37.3%	37.2%	58.9%	0.63×	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)	64.2%	65.7%	61.5%	1.07×	1.52
Real Madrid leading at HT (DNB)	35.8%	34.3%	38.5%	0.89×	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or Real Madrid (12)	75.5%	75.5%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Racing Santander or draw (1X)	63.4%	63.6%	71.6%	0.89×	1.57
Real Madrid or draw (X2)	61.1%	63.6%	53.6%	1.19×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw at HT	76.8%	79.4%	78.1%	1.02×	1.26
Racing Santander or Real Madrid at HT	64.7%	61.0%	56.8%	1.07×	1.64
Real Madrid or draw at HT	58.5%	57.7%	65.0%	0.89×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw (1UP)	63.4%	71.6%	78.0%	0.92×	1.40
Real Madrid or draw (1UP)	61.1%	71.5%	60.3%	1.19×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid or draw in 2nd half	76.7%	75.8%	60.4%	1.25×	1.32
Racing Santander or Real Madrid in 2nd half	62.4%	63.8%	67.1%	0.95×	1.57
Racing Santander or draw in 2nd half	60.9%	63.7%	72.4%	0.88×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.6%	58.8%	62.1%	0.95×	1.70
Neither half drawn	40.4%	41.2%	37.9%	1.09×	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (DNB)	51.6%	50.9%	62.0%	0.82×	1.97
Real Madrid (DNB)	48.4%	49.1%	38.0%	1.29×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score first	48.3%	46.0%	55.2%	0.83×	2.17
Real Madrid to score first	46.6%	46.0%	39.7%	1.16×	2.18
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.58

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.6%	55.1%	55.8%	0.99×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.4%	44.9%	44.2%	1.02×	2.23

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.3%	44.4%	40.8%	1.09×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	31.9%	34.5%	34.8%	0.99×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.4%	12.4%	15.2%	0.81×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	9.5%	0.88×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.1%	82.6%	85.9%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.9%	17.4%	14.1%	1.23×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.3%	74.6%	70.7%	1.06×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.7%	25.4%	29.3%	0.87×	3.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.3%	54.6%	59.7%	0.91×	1.83
Both score 1st half only	21.0%	20.9%	11.1%	1.88×	4.78
Both score 2nd half only	17.8%	15.1%	23.8%	0.63×	6.64
Both score in both halves	6.9%	6.8%	5.6%	1.21×	14.69

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.1%	79.6%	83.4%	0.95×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	27.9%	20.4%	16.6%	1.23×	4.89

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.5%	57.1%	55.2%	1.04×	1.75
A half without a goal	40.5%	42.9%	44.8%	0.96×	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.1%	47.2%	49.3%	0.96×	2.12
4-6 goals	31.2%	30.7%	23.7%	1.30×	3.26
0-1 goals	20.5%	22.9%	24.7%	0.93×	4.37
7+ goals	3.1%	1.8%	2.6%	0.72×	54.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid to score exactly 1	34.0%	33.8%	38.1%	0.89×	2.96
Real Madrid to score exactly 2	24.7%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.48
Real Madrid to score exactly 0	23.4%	22.3%	29.9%	0.75×	4.49
Real Madrid to score 3+	17.9%	19.6%	10.6%	1.84×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score exactly 1	33.4%	32.6%	38.3%	0.85×	3.07
Racing Santander to score exactly 2	25.2%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Racing Santander to score exactly 0	22.2%	23.3%	19.5%	1.19×	4.29
Racing Santander to score 3+	19.3%	18.8%	19.7%	0.95×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT	41.5%	42.3%	35.0%	1.21×	2.36
Draw at HT	35.3%	39.0%	43.2%	0.90×	2.56
Real Madrid leading at HT	23.2%	20.6%	21.9%	0.94×	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander -1: 2	61.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Racing Santander -1: X	20.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Racing Santander -1: 1	18.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (0:1)	61.1%	61.4%	53.6%	1.14×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.1%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.13
Racing Santander (0:1)	18.8%	17.8%	20.7%	0.86×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (0:2)	81.2%	82.9%	79.3%	1.05×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.5%	11.0%	10.6%	1.03×	9.11
Racing Santander (0:2)	7.3%	7.7%	10.2%	0.75×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (0:3)	92.7%	92.7%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	2.4%	7.1%	0.33×	42.01
Racing Santander (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (0:4)	97.7%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	81.98
Racing Santander (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (1:0)	63.4%	65.3%	71.6%	0.91×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	19.4%	17.1%	17.5%	0.98×	5.84
Real Madrid (1:0)	17.2%	17.1%	11.0%	1.56×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (2:0)	82.8%	84.6%	89.0%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.7%	10.3%	7.0%	1.46×	9.74
Real Madrid (2:0)	6.4%	6.4%	4.1%	1.56×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	40.8%	45.3%	25.8%	1.76×	2.21
2nd half highest scoring	34.7%	30.3%	51.3%	0.59×	3.30
Halves equal	24.4%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to concede	76.6%	76.0%	70.1%	1.08×	1.32
Racing Santander clean sheet	23.4%	24.0%	29.9%	0.80×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander clean sheet in 1st half	54.1%	55.5%	63.2%	0.88×	1.80
Racing Santander to concede in 1st half	45.9%	44.5%	36.8%	1.21×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to concede in 2nd half	56.7%	54.6%	52.2%	1.05×	1.83
Racing Santander clean sheet in 2nd half	43.3%	45.4%	47.8%	0.95×	2.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander over 2.5 corners	85.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Racing Santander over 3.5 corners	72.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Racing Santander under 6.5 corners	68.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Racing Santander over 4.5 corners	58.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Racing Santander under 5.5 corners	56.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Racing Santander over 5.5 corners	44.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Racing Santander under 4.5 corners	41.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Racing Santander over 6.5 corners	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Racing Santander under 3.5 corners	27.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Racing Santander under 2.5 corners	14.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 3.5 goals	93.4%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Racing Santander under 2.5 goals	80.7%	82.2%	80.3%	1.02×	1.22
Racing Santander over 0.5 goals	77.8%	77.8%	80.5%	0.97×	1.29
Racing Santander under 1.5 goals	55.6%	58.6%	57.7%	1.02×	1.71
Racing Santander over 1.5 goals	44.4%	41.4%	42.3%	0.98×	2.42
Racing Santander under 0.5 goals	22.2%	22.2%	19.5%	1.14×	4.49
Racing Santander over 2.5 goals	19.3%	17.8%	19.7%	0.90×	5.62
Racing Santander over 3.5 goals	6.6%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 1.5 in 1st half	76.0%	76.9%	85.8%	0.90×	1.30
Racing Santander over 0.5 in 1st half	60.7%	63.8%	47.7%	1.34×	1.57
Racing Santander under 0.5 in 1st half	39.3%	36.2%	52.3%	0.69×	2.77
Racing Santander over 1.5 in 1st half	24.0%	23.1%	14.2%	1.63×	4.33

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander scores more in 1st half	42.7%	42.1%	27.5%	1.53×	2.38
Racing Santander scores equally in both	35.7%	37.8%	32.2%	1.17×	2.65
Racing Santander scores more in 2nd half	21.6%	21.1%	40.4%	0.52×	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid (home no bet)	59.9%	56.5%	52.8%	1.07×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	40.1%	43.5%	47.2%	0.92×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander even goals	52.5%	50.7%	47.4%	1.07×	1.97
Racing Santander odd goals	47.5%	49.3%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	21.2%	24.3%	32.2%	0.75×	4.12
HT 1-0	19.8%	18.5%	22.0%	0.84×	5.39
HT 0-1	13.1%	11.0%	16.0%	0.69×	9.10
HT 1-1	12.2%	11.0%	10.1%	1.09×	9.11
HT 2-0	9.3%	6.9%	6.7%	1.04×	14.43
Any other HT score	9.1%	6.9%	4.5%	1.56×	14.43
HT 2-1	5.7%	6.9%	3.0%	2.27×	14.49
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.4%	3.6%	0.66×	41.95
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.4%	1.6%	1.45×	41.96
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.4%	1.2%	2.03×	42.09

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander at HT / Racing Santander at FT	29.7%	27.4%	26.2%	1.04×	3.65
Real Madrid at HT / Real Madrid at FT	18.9%	16.8%	13.2%	1.27×	5.95
Draw at HT / Real Madrid at FT	13.8%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.7%	14.1%	0.90×	7.91
Draw at HT / Racing Santander at FT	8.2%	6.1%	17.9%	0.34×	16.41
Racing Santander at HT / Draw at FT	7.9%	6.1%	5.2%	1.18×	16.42
Racing Santander at HT / Real Madrid at FT	3.9%	3.5%	3.9%	0.90×	28.83
Real Madrid at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	6.3%	0.55×	28.85
Real Madrid at HT / Racing Santander at FT	1.0%	3.5%	2.6%	1.34×	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score last	48.3%	46.5%	54.9%	0.85×	2.15
Real Madrid to score last	46.6%	46.5%	39.9%	1.16×	2.15
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	5.3%	1.40×	13.58

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.8%	92.7%	94.7%	0.98×	1.08
Racing Santander to lead by 1 at any time	56.7%	54.9%	62.8%	0.87×	1.82
Real Madrid to lead by 1 at any time	54.7%	50.9%	47.2%	1.08×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.4%	44.4%	41.9%	1.06×	2.25
Racing Santander to lead by 2 at any time	25.7%	25.3%	26.5%	0.96×	3.95
Real Madrid to lead by 2 at any time	24.0%	19.6%	15.8%	1.24×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.0%	14.9%	17.2%	0.87×	6.71
Racing Santander to lead by 3 at any time	9.5%	6.7%	12.4%	0.54×	14.87
Real Madrid to lead by 3 at any time	8.5%	6.7%	4.9%	1.36×	14.91

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid most corners	55.2%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Racing Santander most corners	35.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	9.3%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.8%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.0%	78.7%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	76.3%	78.7%	72.9%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.3%	69.3%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	61.1%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	60.5%	63.3%	68.7%	0.92×	1.58
3-6 goals	53.6%	53.2%	47.7%	1.12×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.8%	48.5%	44.0%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.1%	48.5%	49.3%	0.98×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.0%	39.2%	35.9%	1.09×	2.55
1-2 goals	38.1%	39.2%	44.7%	0.88×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.2%	35.2%	23.7%	1.48×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.4%	30.2%	20.1%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.6%	14.8%	11.9%	1.24×	6.75
7+ goals	3.1%	2.6%	2.6%	0.99×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander never behind	40.1%	48.4%	52.8%	0.92×	2.06
Real Madrid never behind	38.1%	44.1%	37.2%	1.19×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	53.7%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.3%	51.7%	54.5%	0.95×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.7%	48.3%	45.6%	1.06×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.0%	51.9%	49.3%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.0%	48.1%	50.7%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	93.8%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.2%	82.3%	85.6%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	79.5%	77.3%	75.4%	1.03×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	65.6%	66.3%	73.8%	0.90×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	50.1%	1.17×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	49.9%	0.83×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	34.4%	33.7%	26.2%	1.29×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	20.5%	22.7%	24.7%	0.92×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.8%	17.7%	14.4%	1.23×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	6.2%	1.25×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	5.3%	1.47×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.7%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.2%	92.4%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.7%	75.9%	83.7%	0.91×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	73.4%	72.4%	67.0%	1.08×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.7%	55.8%	65.6%	0.85×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.3%	44.2%	34.4%	1.29×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	26.6%	27.6%	33.0%	0.84×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.3%	24.1%	16.3%	1.48×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.8%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.3%	2.8%	2.7%	1.05×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	79.7%	78.6%	90.0%	0.87×	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.8%	78.6%	67.8%	1.16×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	54.2%	54.9%	70.0%	0.78×	1.82
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.8%	45.1%	30.0%	1.50×	2.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.2%	21.4%	32.2%	0.67×	4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half	20.3%	21.4%	10.0%	2.15×	4.68

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.1%	83.0%	79.0%	1.05×	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.6%	79.6%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	55.2%	53.3%	1.04×	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	44.8%	46.7%	0.96×	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.4%	20.4%	17.9%	1.14×	4.91
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.9%	17.0%	21.0%	0.81×	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid not to score in both halves	73.9%	74.0%	81.0%	0.91×	1.35
Racing Santander not to score in both halves	73.5%	74.0%	73.7%	1.00×	1.35
Racing Santander to score in both halves	26.5%	26.0%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Real Madrid to score in both halves	26.1%	26.0%	19.0%	1.37×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.6%	58.7%	55.8%	1.05×	1.70
Only Racing Santander scores	18.2%	16.0%	24.8%	0.65×	6.24
Only Real Madrid scores	17.0%	16.0%	14.4%	1.12×	6.24
Neither team scores	5.2%	7.1%	5.3%	1.35×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.7%	22.6%	25.4%	0.89×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.6%	17.5%	11.9%	1.46×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.3%	17.5%	19.5%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.8%	7.6%	8.3%	0.92×	13.14
6 or more goals	8.0%	7.6%	6.2%	1.23×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.2%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	32.9%	35.7%	37.9%	0.94×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	25.5%	28.5%	20.1%	1.41×	3.51
No goals in 1st half	21.2%	21.5%	32.2%	0.67×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	20.3%	21.4%	10.0%	2.15×	4.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.2%	44.5%	46.7%	0.95×	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	34.4%	33.8%	35.5%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	24.4%	22.7%	17.9%	1.27×	4.40

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid not to win both halves	90.9%	94.1%	94.6%	0.99×	1.06
Racing Santander not to win both halves	90.3%	94.1%	88.1%	1.07×	1.06
Racing Santander to win both halves	9.7%	5.9%	11.9%	0.50×	16.90
Real Madrid to win both halves	9.1%	5.9%	5.4%	1.10×	16.94

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to win either half	55.1%	59.1%	62.6%	0.94×	1.69
Real Madrid to win either half	53.2%	54.3%	44.1%	1.23×	1.84
Real Madrid to win neither half	46.8%	45.7%	55.9%	0.82×	2.19
Racing Santander to win neither half	44.9%	40.9%	37.4%	1.10×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Real Madrid not to win to nil	83.0%	83.1%	85.6%	0.97×	1.20
Racing Santander not to win to nil	81.8%	83.1%	75.2%	1.10×	1.20
Racing Santander to win to nil	18.2%	16.9%	24.8%	0.68×	5.91
Real Madrid to win to nil	17.0%	16.9%	14.4%	1.18×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.5%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Racing Santander by 1	20.1%	24.1%	25.8%	0.93×	4.15
Real Madrid by 1	19.4%	17.1%	17.5%	0.97×	5.86
Racing Santander by 2	11.5%	11.7%	10.6%	1.11×	8.51
Real Madrid by 2	10.7%	11.7%	7.0%	1.68×	8.51
Racing Santander by 3+	7.3%	7.2%	10.2%	0.71×	13.91
Real Madrid by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	4.1%	1.76×	13.91