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Rangers v Aberdeen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rangers win
75.6%
model 76.3%
Draw
17.5%
model 15.1%
Aberdeen win
7.0%
model 8.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (340 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 12.2%
  2. 3-0 10.3%
  3. 1-0 9.6%
  4. 2-1 9.0%
  5. 3-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.563.4% Under 2.536.6%
BTTS yes48.0% BTTS no52.0%
Rangers 1+92.0% Rangers 2+71.9%
Aberdeen 1+52.1% Aberdeen 2+16.9%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Rangers carry the stronger rating, 1679 Elo against 1399.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rangers have an estimated 75.6% win probability, against 17.5% for the draw and 7.0% for Aberdeen. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.53 for Rangers and 0.74 for Aberdeen.

Why Rangers

Rangers carry the stronger rating, 1679 Elo against 1399. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Aberdeen can win

Nothing in the data singles out Aberdeen.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rangers, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Aberdeen, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rangers: 60% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Aberdeen: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rangers's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Rangers are the model's most likely outcome at 75.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.2%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 2.41–0.75 2-0 12% 61% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win 74.2% 73.6% 45.9% 1.61× 1.36
Draw 16.2% 19.4% 23.4% 0.83× 5.15
Aberdeen to win 9.6% 8.4% 30.9% 0.27× 11.90
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers & not both score 43.0% 40.0% 27.4% 1.46× 2.50
Rangers & both teams score 31.1% 29.6% 18.7% 1.59× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 11.9% 13.3% 17.8% 0.74× 7.54
Aberdeen & both teams score 5.0% 4.9% 16.4% 0.30× 20.32
Aberdeen & not both score 4.7% 4.9% 14.7% 0.33× 20.32
Draw & not both score 4.3% 4.9% 5.8% 0.85× 20.34
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers & over 1.5 64.0% 54.5% 36.7% 1.48× 1.84
Rangers & over 2.5 51.6% 48.6% 28.2% 1.72× 2.06
Rangers & under 3.5 41.7% 40.3% 30.1% 1.34× 2.48
Rangers & over 3.5 32.5% 30.8% 16.0% 1.93× 3.24
Rangers & under 2.5 22.5% 21.6% 17.8% 1.21× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 11.9% 12.9% 17.8% 0.72× 7.76
Draw & under 2.5 12.0% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.76
Draw & under 3.5 12.0% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.76
Rangers & under 1.5 10.2% 12.9% 9.3% 1.38× 7.76
Aberdeen & under 3.5 7.5% 7.9% 22.4% 0.35× 12.65
Aberdeen & over 1.5 6.5% 7.9% 24.5% 0.32× 12.65
Aberdeen & over 2.5 5.3% 7.9% 20.5% 0.38× 12.65
Aberdeen & under 2.5 4.3% 4.8% 10.6% 0.45× 20.85
Draw & under 1.5 4.3% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.85
Draw & over 2.5 4.2% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.85
Draw & over 3.5 4.2% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.85
Aberdeen & under 1.5 3.1% 4.8% 6.6% 0.72× 20.86
Aberdeen & over 3.5 2.2% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.87
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (1UP) 82.7% 87.2% 1.15
Aberdeen (1UP) 25.7% 26.4% 3.79
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (2UP) 74.2% 81.0% 1.24
Aberdeen (2UP) 9.6% 9.2% 10.89
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win 2nd half 60.2% 58.5% 1.71
2nd half drawn 27.8% 26.4% 3.79
Aberdeen to win 2nd half 12.0% 12.2% 8.21
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (+0.5) 90.4% 92.0% 69.1% 1.33× 1.09
Rangers (-0.5) 74.2% 73.8% 45.9% 1.61× 1.36
Aberdeen (+2.5) 70.2% 73.7% 87.8% 0.84× 1.36
Rangers (-1.5) 51.5% 52.4% 26.6% 1.97× 1.91
Aberdeen (+1.5) 48.5% 47.6% 73.4% 0.65× 2.10
Rangers (-2.5) 29.8% 26.3% 12.2% 2.15× 3.81
Aberdeen (+0.5) 25.8% 26.2% 54.1% 0.48× 3.81
Aberdeen (-0.5) 9.6% 8.0% 30.9% 0.26× 12.57
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede 91.0% 91.6% 79.7% 1.15× 1.09
Aberdeen clean sheet 9.0% 8.4% 20.3% 0.41× 11.87
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to concede in 1st half 64.6% 65.0% 1.54
Aberdeen clean sheet in 1st half 35.4% 35.0% 2.86
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 6.5 corners 88.7% 85.2% 1.17
Aberdeen under 5.5 corners 79.9% 76.0% 1.32
Aberdeen over 2.5 corners 68.9% 67.6% 1.48
Aberdeen under 4.5 corners 67.0% 67.6% 1.48
Aberdeen over 3.5 corners 50.0% 53.0% 1.89
Aberdeen under 3.5 corners 50.0% 47.0% 2.13
Aberdeen over 4.5 corners 33.0% 32.4% 3.08
Aberdeen under 2.5 corners 31.1% 32.4% 3.08
Aberdeen over 5.5 corners 20.1% 24.0% 4.16
Aberdeen over 6.5 corners 11.3% 14.8% 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 3.5 goals 99.3% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Aberdeen under 2.5 goals 96.0% 97.5% 85.5% 1.14× 1.03
Aberdeen under 1.5 goals 82.7% 81.4% 63.1% 1.29× 1.23
Aberdeen over 0.5 goals 52.7% 53.8% 67.0% 0.80× 1.86
Aberdeen under 0.5 goals 47.3% 46.3% 33.0% 1.40× 2.16
Aberdeen over 1.5 goals 17.3% 18.6% 36.9% 0.50× 5.36
Aberdeen over 2.5 goals 4.0% 2.5% 14.5% 0.17× 39.97
Aberdeen over 3.5 goals 0.7% 2.5% 3.7% 0.67× 40.14
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen under 1.5 in 1st half 96.3% 95.8% 1.04
Aberdeen under 0.5 in 1st half 74.1% 68.8% 1.45
Aberdeen over 0.5 in 1st half 25.9% 31.2% 3.20
Aberdeen over 1.5 in 1st half 3.7% 4.3% 23.53
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (away no bet) 82.1% 82.6% 66.2% 1.25× 1.21
Draw (away no bet) 17.9% 17.4% 33.8% 0.52× 5.74
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen even goals 61.2% 59.0% 57.7% 1.02× 1.69
Aberdeen odd goals 38.8% 41.0% 42.3% 0.97× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.0% 82.1% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 21.0% 17.9% 5.59
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 72.1% 67.3% 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 27.9% 32.7% 3.06
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 69.1% 62.3% 1.61
Rangers to score 2+ in a row 63.5% 60.0% 1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 36.3% 36.5% 2.74
Rangers to score 3+ in a row 34.9% 29.2% 3.43
Aberdeen to score 2+ in a row 10.4% 12.1% 8.27
Aberdeen to score 3+ in a row 1.6% 2.5% 39.66
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers corners (+3.5) 96.8% 95.8% 1.04
Rangers corners (+2.5) 94.4% 89.6% 1.12
Rangers corners (+1.5) 90.6% 89.6% 1.12
Rangers corners (-1.5) 69.3% 65.8% 1.52
Rangers corners (-2.5) 59.4% 57.1% 1.75
Aberdeen corners (+3.5) 50.8% 52.5% 1.91
Rangers corners (-3.5) 49.2% 47.5% 2.10
Aberdeen corners (+2.5) 40.6% 42.9% 2.33
Aberdeen corners (+1.5) 30.7% 34.2% 2.93
Aberdeen corners (-1.5) 9.4% 10.4% 9.57
Aberdeen corners (-2.5) 5.6% 10.4% 9.58
Aberdeen corners (-3.5) 3.2% 4.2% 23.67
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 43.2% 38.3% 2.61
9-11 corners 29.6% 31.2% 3.20
0-8 corners 27.2% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 81.4% 80.7% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 72.8% 72.6% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 65.9% 67.7% 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 63.2% 63.3% 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 56.8% 57.9% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 53.1% 53.2% 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 46.9% 46.8% 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 43.2% 42.1% 2.38
Under 9.5 corners 36.8% 36.7% 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 34.1% 32.3% 3.10
Under 8.5 corners 27.2% 27.4% 3.65
Under 7.5 corners 18.6% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 12.3% 11.4% 8.7% 1.31× 8.74
1-0 10.2% 11.4% 9.3% 1.23× 8.74
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.50
3-0 9.9% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.50
Any other score 9.8% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.50
1-1 7.7% 7.4% 9.3% 0.79× 13.50
3-1 7.4% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.50
4-0 6.0% 7.4% 3.5% 2.10× 13.50
0-0 4.3% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.29
0-1 3.1% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.30
0-2 1.2% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.31
0-3 0.3% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.13× 58.32
1-2 2.9% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.30
1-3 0.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.32
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
2-2 3.5% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.30
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.31
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-2 2.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.13× 58.32
4-1 4.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.18× 58.29
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.76× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.27× 58.32
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers leading at HT (DNB) 83.7% 87.0% 1.15
Aberdeen leading at HT (DNB) 16.3% 13.0% 7.69
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw (1X) 90.4% 91.6% 69.1% 1.33× 1.09
Rangers or Aberdeen (12) 83.8% 80.6% 76.6% 1.05× 1.24
Aberdeen or draw (X2) 25.8% 26.4% 54.1% 0.49× 3.79
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw at HT 89.4% 88.4% 1.13
Rangers or Aberdeen at HT 64.9% 62.1% 1.61
Aberdeen or draw at HT 45.7% 51.9% 1.93
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw (1UP) 90.4% 93.0% 1.08
Aberdeen or draw (1UP) 25.8% 31.3% 3.20
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw in 2nd half 88.0% 87.8% 1.14
Rangers or Aberdeen in 2nd half 72.2% 73.6% 1.36
Aberdeen or draw in 2nd half 39.8% 41.5% 2.41
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 46.9% 50.1% 2.00
A half drawn 53.1% 49.9% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (DNB) 88.5% 87.1% 59.7% 1.46× 1.15
Aberdeen (DNB) 11.5% 12.9% 40.3% 0.32× 7.78
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score first 73.1% 75.1% 1.33
Aberdeen to score first 22.7% 22.8% 4.38
No goal scored 4.3% 4.3% 23.25
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.0% 51.3% 47.5% 1.08× 1.95
Both teams to score 48.0% 48.7% 52.5% 0.93× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.3% 41.6% 43.4% 0.96× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 31.1% 34.4% 33.8% 1.02× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 20.9% 27.7% 13.9% 1.99× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 7.7% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.00
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.0% 85.6% 83.8% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.0% 14.4% 16.2% 0.89× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.9% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.1% 25.9% 3.86
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.7% 66.3% 1.51
Both score 2nd half only 22.5% 20.8% 4.80
Both score 1st half only 12.2% 10.7% 9.33
Both score in both halves 4.5% 5.0% 19.81
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.3% 82.5% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 16.7% 17.5% 5.71
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.9% 58.7% 1.70
A half without a goal 38.1% 41.3% 2.42
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.5% 42.1% 45.9% 0.92× 2.38
4-6 goals 34.7% 30.8% 31.3% 0.98× 3.25
0-1 goals 17.6% 20.3% 21.4% 0.95× 4.93
7+ goals 4.2% 1.8% 1.9% 0.98× 54.46
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen to score exactly 0 47.3% 42.7% 33.0% 1.30× 2.34
Aberdeen to score exactly 1 35.4% 36.0% 30.3% 1.19× 2.78
Aberdeen to score exactly 2 13.3% 12.8% 22.6% 0.57× 7.78
Aberdeen to score 3+ 4.0% 4.6% 14.5% 0.31× 21.97
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score 3+ 43.4% 34.9% 23.9% 1.46× 2.86
Rangers to score exactly 2 26.1% 26.5% 25.1% 1.06× 3.78
Rangers to score exactly 1 21.6% 23.2% 31.1% 0.75× 4.31
Rangers to score exactly 0 9.0% 10.4% 20.3% 0.51× 9.65
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers leading at HT 54.3% 48.1% 2.08
Draw at HT 35.1% 37.9% 2.64
Aberdeen leading at HT 10.6% 11.6% 8.61
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers -1: 1 51.5% 52.0% 1.92
Rangers -1: 2 25.8% 26.6% 3.77
Rangers -1: X 22.7% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (0:1) 51.5% 51.2% 26.6% 1.93× 1.95
Aberdeen (0:1) 25.8% 27.0% 54.1% 0.50× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 22.7% 24.3% 19.5% 1.24× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:2) 48.5% 51.8% 73.4% 0.71× 1.93
Rangers (0:2) 29.8% 23.9% 12.2% 1.95× 4.19
Draw (0:2) 21.7% 20.3% 14.5% 1.40× 4.92
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:3) 70.2% 77.8% 87.8% 0.89× 1.29
Draw (0:3) 15.3% 15.9% 6.8% 2.32× 6.28
Rangers (0:3) 14.5% 10.0% 5.6% 1.79× 9.98
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen (0:4) 85.5% 91.9% 94.4% 0.97× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 8.5% 4.6% 4.8% 0.97× 21.51
Rangers (0:4) 6.0% 4.6% 1.0% 4.44× 21.73
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (1:0) 90.4% 92.4% 69.1% 1.34× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 7.0% 6.9% 17.6% 0.39× 14.41
Aberdeen (1:0) 2.6% 3.2% 13.5% 0.24× 31.02
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (2:0) 97.4% 96.9% 86.5% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.1% 2.3% 7.7% 0.30× 43.72
Aberdeen (2:0) 0.5% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.82
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.9% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 28.2% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 22.9% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to concede 52.7% 53.3% 67.0% 0.80× 1.88
Rangers clean sheet 47.3% 46.7% 33.0% 1.42× 2.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers clean sheet in 1st half 74.1% 68.3% 1.46
Rangers to concede in 1st half 25.9% 31.7% 3.16
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers over 2.5 corners 94.9% 89.3% 1.12
Rangers over 3.5 corners 88.6% 86.3% 1.16
Rangers over 4.5 corners 79.5% 76.6% 1.31
Rangers over 5.5 corners 68.3% 66.7% 1.50
Rangers over 6.5 corners 56.2% 57.6% 1.74
Rangers under 6.5 corners 43.8% 42.4% 2.36
Rangers under 5.5 corners 31.7% 33.3% 3.01
Rangers under 4.5 corners 20.5% 23.4% 4.27
Rangers under 3.5 corners 11.4% 13.7% 7.31
Rangers under 2.5 corners 5.1% 10.7% 9.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers over 0.5 goals 91.0% 92.2% 79.7% 1.16× 1.08
Rangers under 3.5 goals 77.6% 77.7% 92.1% 0.84× 1.29
Rangers over 1.5 goals 69.4% 67.9% 48.8% 1.39× 1.47
Rangers under 2.5 goals 56.6% 58.8% 76.1% 0.77× 1.70
Rangers over 2.5 goals 43.4% 41.2% 23.9% 1.73× 2.43
Rangers under 1.5 goals 30.6% 32.1% 51.2% 0.63× 3.12
Rangers over 3.5 goals 22.4% 22.3% 7.9% 2.82× 4.49
Rangers under 0.5 goals 9.0% 7.8% 20.3% 0.38× 12.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 1.5 in 1st half 72.2% 79.8% 1.25
Rangers over 0.5 in 1st half 64.6% 64.8% 1.54
Rangers under 0.5 in 1st half 35.4% 35.2% 2.84
Rangers over 1.5 in 1st half 27.8% 20.2% 4.96
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 62.7% 60.0% 43.1% 1.39× 1.67
Aberdeen (home no bet) 37.3% 40.0% 56.9% 0.70× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers even goals 50.4% 50.6% 51.7% 0.98× 1.98
Rangers odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 27.2% 28.8% 3.47
HT 0-0 26.3% 28.8% 3.47
HT 2-0 14.1% 10.9% 9.14
Any other HT score 9.1% 7.1% 14.00
HT 1-1 8.2% 7.1% 14.01
HT 0-1 7.9% 7.1% 14.01
HT 2-1 4.2% 2.3% 43.39
HT 0-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.62
HT 1-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.61
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.3% 43.66
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers at HT / Rangers at FT 50.1% 54.7% 1.83
Draw at HT / Rangers at FT 21.1% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.8% 6.0% 16.59
Aberdeen at HT / Aberdeen at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.74
Draw at HT / Aberdeen at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.76
Rangers at HT / Draw at FT 3.4% 3.5% 28.79
Aberdeen at HT / Rangers at FT 2.9% 3.5% 28.81
Aberdeen at HT / Draw at FT 3.0% 3.5% 28.80
Rangers at HT / Aberdeen at FT 0.8% 3.5% 28.89
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score last 73.1% 72.6% 1.38
Aberdeen to score last 22.7% 26.4% 3.79
No goal scored 4.3% 4.3% 23.25
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.7% 95.6% 1.05
Rangers to lead by 1 at any time 82.7% 87.2% 1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 62.5% 61.4% 1.63
Rangers to lead by 2 at any time 57.2% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 33.9% 29.4% 3.40
Rangers to lead by 3 at any time 32.9% 29.4% 3.41
Aberdeen to lead by 1 at any time 25.7% 25.4% 3.93
Aberdeen to lead by 2 at any time 5.5% 6.6% 15.19
Aberdeen to lead by 3 at any time 1.0% 1.6% 63.44
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers most corners 78.0% 74.3% 1.35
Aberdeen most corners 14.8% 10.4% 9.59
Corners level 7.2% 8.4% 11.91
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.7% 87.4% 86.9% 1.01× 1.15
2-6 goals 78.2% 78.6% 77.0% 1.02× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.5% 72.4% 79.7% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.4% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.4% 64.1% 0.99× 1.58
1-3 goals 56.8% 59.1% 61.4% 0.96× 1.69
3-6 goals 57.0% 59.1% 55.4% 1.07× 1.69
3-5 goals 51.1% 53.1% 49.8% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.5% 43.6% 45.9% 0.95× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.0% 39.2% 42.5% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 34.7% 35.3% 31.3% 1.13× 2.83
1-2 goals 34.5% 35.3% 37.3% 0.95× 2.83
4-5 goals 28.8% 30.3% 25.7% 1.18× 3.30
5-6 goals 17.1% 18.7% 13.1% 1.43× 5.34
7+ goals 4.2% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.05
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers never behind 70.1% 76.3% 1.31
Aberdeen never behind 13.1% 13.0% 7.72
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 51.5% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.5% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.5% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.7% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.9% 87.6% 92.5% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 82.4% 82.3% 78.6% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 78.8% 77.4% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 61.2% 61.7% 57.1% 1.08× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 61.1% 61.7% 67.0% 0.92× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 38.8% 38.3% 42.9% 0.89× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 38.9% 38.3% 33.0% 1.16× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 21.2% 22.6% 14.7% 1.54× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 17.6% 17.7% 21.4% 0.83× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 10.1% 12.4% 7.5% 1.66× 8.08
Under 0.5 goals 4.3% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.91
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.6% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 88.7% 86.7% 91.9% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.7% 75.9% 72.8% 1.04× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.2% 72.5% 82.0% 0.88× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.1% 51.9% 43.4% 1.19× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.9% 48.1% 56.6% 0.85× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.8% 27.5% 18.0% 1.52× 3.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.3% 24.1% 27.2% 0.89× 4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.3% 13.3% 8.1% 1.65× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.4% 2.8% 2.0% 1.41× 35.79
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.8% 86.4% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.7% 71.3% 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.4% 63.5% 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.6% 36.5% 2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.3% 28.7% 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.2% 13.6% 7.33
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.9% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.4% 77.7% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.5% 53.4% 1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.5% 46.6% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.6% 22.3% 4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.1% 17.2% 5.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to score in both halves 90.6% 89.8% 1.11
Rangers not to score in both halves 51.7% 55.6% 1.80
Rangers to score in both halves 48.3% 44.4% 2.25
Aberdeen to score in both halves 9.4% 10.2% 9.85
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 48.0% 50.6% 52.5% 0.96× 1.98
Only Rangers scores 43.0% 46.6% 27.4% 1.70× 2.15
Only Aberdeen scores 4.7% 4.7% 14.7% 0.32× 21.40
Neither team scores 4.3% 4.7% 5.8% 0.80× 21.42
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.2% 22.6% 21.8% 1.04× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 17.7% 17.4% 18.5% 0.94× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.3% 12.1% 15.8% 0.77× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 11.2% 12.1% 7.5% 1.62× 8.28
6 or more goals 10.1% 12.1% 7.5% 1.62× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 4.3% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.41
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.5% 51.6% 1.94
1 goal in 2nd half 29.4% 29.8% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 16.1% 17.2% 5.82
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to win both halves 98.7% 97.3% 1.03
Rangers not to win both halves 67.3% 70.1% 1.43
Rangers to win both halves 32.7% 29.9% 3.35
Aberdeen to win both halves 1.3% 2.7% 36.75
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win either half 81.8% 82.9% 1.21
Aberdeen to win neither half 78.7% 79.9% 1.25
Aberdeen to win either half 21.3% 20.1% 4.96
Rangers to win neither half 18.2% 17.1% 5.84
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Aberdeen not to win to nil 95.3% 96.0% 85.3% 1.13× 1.04
Rangers not to win to nil 57.0% 59.0% 72.6% 0.81× 1.69
Rangers to win to nil 43.0% 41.0% 27.4% 1.50× 2.44
Aberdeen to win to nil 4.7% 4.0% 14.7% 0.27× 25.06
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers by 3+ 29.8% 27.9% 12.2% 2.28× 3.59
Rangers by 1 22.7% 24.2% 19.5% 1.24× 4.14
Rangers by 2 21.7% 24.2% 14.5% 1.66× 4.14
Draw 16.2% 16.9% 23.4% 0.72× 5.91
Aberdeen by 1 7.0% 7.2% 17.6% 0.41× 13.81
Aberdeen by 2 2.1% 2.7% 7.7% 0.36× 36.69
Aberdeen by 3+ 0.5% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.74
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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